Iran should not confuse the South Caucasus and the Middle East

Ongoing peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia could thwart the hegemonic ambitions and desires of many South Caucasus powers. It is worth noting that the long-standing Karabakh conflict between Baku and Yerevan has attracted the attention of many countries to the region. Alongside the West, Iran, neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia, has also been somewhat emboldened by this conflict.

Iran's proximity to Armenia, its controversial policies and its silence on the massacres carried out in Azerbaijani territories over the past thirty years are regrettable. During the resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian war, Iran was one of the Muslim countries to launch protests against Israel. Interestingly, the Islamic Republic of Iran did not mention the existence of mosques transformed by Armenians into stables and pigsties, where Azerbaijani Muslims expelled from their homes by Armenians were relocated. Although Azerbaijan shares a border with Iran and Karabakh is very close, Iran has turned a blind eye to Armenia's actions.

In 2020, when the Azerbaijani army put an end to Armenian provocations and launched a counter-offensive, Iranian leaders refrained from celebrating the event. Just this year, in April, Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Mehdi Subhani held a press conference stating that Armenian soldiers were killed by Israeli weapons during the Second Karabakh War.

It is important to note that Azerbaijan purchased these weapons and military equipment from Israel with its own funds to liberate its territories from occupation. However, Tehran sent significant quantities of weapons and military equipment to Armenia during the 44-day Patriotic War to keep Azerbaijani territories under occupation.

Interestingly, all of Iran's official statements indicate its support for peace. However, Tehran does not specify in what form it wishes to achieve peace.

It seems that the signing of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is not in line with Iran's interests. Just yesterday, another provocative statement by the Iranian ambassador to Armenia was reported in the media. He said that the results of today's Iranian presidential elections would not bring any changes in relations with Armenia. When asked about Azerbaijan, he stressed that his country should avoid using “threatening” language towards Armenia.

By making such provocative statements at a time when events related to the border delimitation and demarcation processes are intensifying, he is serving the interests of the state he represents.

It should be noted that the steps taken by the current Armenian leadership to seek peace have also caused a cooling of relations between Iran and Armenia. On June 21, Armenia's recognition of Palestinian independence was welcomed by many Muslim countries. Even President Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally expressed his approval of the Armenian move, saying he applauded Armenia. Subsequently, all Arab countries expressed their positive attitude towards Armenia's decision.

Iran, which has always claimed to support Palestine and has established close relations with Armenia, its last ally, has however attracted attention. The fact that Iran did not respond officially to Armenia's decision for a week, only saying that it “applauds”, was seen as ambiguous.

It is obvious that Armenia's decision to announce this decision after the telephone call between Pashinyan and Erdogan on June 18 and the statements of Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan regarding the normalization of relations with Turkey provoked Iran . It appears that Iran is unhappy with Armenia's intentions to normalize and develop relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. While Azerbaijan and Armenia, in a state of war for many years, have not discussed a peace deal in the region for years, the power dynamic is changing. The peace process between these two South Caucasus countries is on the agenda, and it remains to be seen whether other regional or foreign countries will sooner or later accept this reality.

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