Unrealistic and unaffordable: public opinion on the 2024 Conservative and Labor manifestos

Most Brits think parties are going back on program promises anyway

The public has now had a few weeks to digest the party manifestos. YouGov has already shown the level of support for each policy in the manifestos, but what do people think of them more generally?

The British tend to think that the election promises of the Conservatives and Labor are unaffordable and unrealistic.

The IFS criticized the Labor and Conservative parties for not showing how they will pay for their election promises.

The public has similar suspicions. Most Britons regard the Conservatives' campaign promises as unaffordable (57%), and about half say the same of Labour (47%). Similar figures again characterise both parties' plans as unrealistic: 62% for the Conservatives and 47% for Labour.

As well as viewing the Conservative proposals as unrealistic and unaffordable, the public also thinks they would be bad for Britain (52%); only 22% think they would be good for the country.

On the other hand, they are divided on Labour's plans: 37% think they would be good for the nation, while 35% think they would not.

How does opinion compare to previous elections?

In their book on the 2017 general election, academics Philip Cowley and Dennis Kavanagh noted that few general election manifestos are remembered. Even fewer, and that makes a big difference. The 2017 general election seemed to be an exception to this rule. The Conservatives’ welfare policies were extremely poorly received, leading to a shift in the media narrative against the party and a sharp decline in its popularity.

The Labor manifesto, on the other hand, was received extremely favorably by many in the party at the time. According to Cowley and Kavanagh: The manifesto was also hugely popular among party supporters and activists; candidates and local organizers spoke of how the policies had energized party workers and given them something to offer voters.

Our own polling after the election showed that 28% of 2017 Labor voters said the main reason they voted for the party was the party's manifesto and policies, making it the most common motivation.

The questions we can compare to those in 2017 suggest that a similar number of Labour voters now think the party's manifesto policies are affordable (50%) as they did in 2019 (51%) and 2017 (also 51%).

While the vast majority of Labour voters see the party’s manifesto as “good for Britain” (76%), this is slightly lower than in 2019 (83%). However, they are slightly more likely to see it as realistic (60% now, compared to 55% in 2019).

Far more Labour voters thought that manifestos under Corbyn were policy-heavy (78% in 2017 and 74% in 2019) than under Starmer (52%). It is of course debatable to what extent a manifesto with many policies is a positive attribute: whether or not those policies appear equally well thought-out is a more obvious measure of approval.

In this respect, the 2017 manifesto scores higher with Labour voters than the 2024 manifesto. Two-thirds (68%) think the party's policies were well thought out in 2017, compared to 59% this year, the same number as in 2019 (58%).

Among the general public, 28% believe that the policies contained in the 2017 and 2024 manifestos were well thought out, with fewer saying this about the 2019 document (20%).

Due to the dramatic decline in their popularity, fewer and fewer Britons view the Conservative Party's promises favorably. Only 15% of them believe that they are well thought out, compared to 27% in 2019 under Boris Johnson and 21% in 2019 under Theresa May.

Conservative voters are also significantly more skeptical about the feasibility and affordability of the party's plans. While three quarters (73-74%) felt they were ahead for the 2019 elections, for the 2024 elections this figure fell to 57% in terms of realism and 50% in terms of price affordable.

Most people don't think parties keep their manifesto promises anyway.

Public cynicism is widespread regarding the respect of parties' electoral commitments. Only one in five voters (20%) believe that winning parties generally deliver on all or most of the promises in their manifestos.

At least half of Brits (53%) think parties go back on most of their promises, and 22% think they go back on all or almost all of their promises.

Are these expectations at odds with reality? Analysis from the Institute for Government showed that the Conservatives failed to deliver on most of their key 2017 manifesto promises; conversely, they delivered on most of their key 2015 manifesto promises. A separate Guardian analysis also suggests that the Conservatives have delivered on most of the key commitments in their 2010 manifesto.

As the 2019 Parliament has just ended, no equivalent analysis exists, although a 2021 study from the IfG found that halfway through the legislature, the Conservatives had met or were on track to meet the majority of their commitments.

See the full results here

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Photo: Getty