Donald Trump's chances of beating Joe Biden in New Jersey, according to polls

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in New Jersey by just 1 percentage point, according to a new poll released Thursday.

Earlier this year, Trump and Biden became their respective parties' presumptive nominees for the 2024 presidential election after a string of primary victories, which could well set up a rematch of the closely contested 2020 election. Polls so far have shown the results to be close, with the two men statistically tied in most polls or only marginally ahead.

A new poll released Thursday by co/Efficient shows Trump leading Biden in New Jersey by 41% to Biden’s 40%, with 13% undecided and 7% supporting independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or another third-party candidate. The poll, of a sample of 810 likely New Jersey general election voters, was conducted June 26-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.42 percentage points.

According to the poll, Trump also leads in approval ratings, with 45% and a 50% disapproval rating, with 5% undecided. Biden, meanwhile, received 36% approval and a 56% disapproval rating, with 8% undecided.

Newsweek reached out to Biden's campaign via email for comment.

In response to the poll, in an emailed statement to Newsweek spokesperson Steven Cheung wrote: “President Trump continues to expand the electoral map as Americans understand the dangers of a Biden presidency. »

However, another previous poll from Emerson College showed the opposite, with Biden leading in the state with 46% of the vote to Trump's 39%. This poll, conducted among a sample of 1,000 registered voters, was conducted between March 26 and 29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

Although the Garden State is traditionally a Democratic stronghold and hasn't voted for a Republican since former President George H.W. Bush in 1988, Thursday's poll comes after Republicans noted earlier this month that Trump could win the state and a few other Democratic swing states this election cycle. At a rally in the state in May, the former president said he would win the Garden State.

“We are officially going to play in the state of New Jersey. We’re going to win New Jersey,” he told the cheering crowd.

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden participate in the CNN presidential debate at CNN's studios in Atlanta on Thursday. Trump leads Biden in New Jersey by just one percentage point, according to a new poll released Thursday. Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden participate in the CNN presidential debate at CNN's studios in Atlanta on Thursday. Trump leads Biden in New Jersey by just one percentage point, according to a new poll released Thursday. More Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

However, some New Jersey Democrats scoff at the idea that the state could be won by Trump. According to CBS News, Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, who is running for Sen. Bob Menendez's U.S. Senate seat in November, said earlier this month, “If President Trump wants to waste money in New Jersey, he It's his fault. in my state people want something different and they are absolutely exhausted by what Trump stands for. »

In 2020, Biden won New Jersey by a double-digit margin over Trump.

However, swing states will play a key role in determining the outcome of the election because of the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population. A presidential candidate must win 270 electoral votes to be elected, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.

The co/Efficient poll comes as the two men participated in the first presidential debate of this year's election cycle, hosted by CNN in Georgia on Thursday.

On Saturday, after the debate, Biden traveled to New Jersey to raise money for his campaign. According to the New Jersey Globe, Biden brought in $3.7 million at a fundraiser at the home of Gov. Phil Murphy and first lady Tammy Murphy.

According to a CNN poll conducted after the debate, 67% of observers said Trump won the debate, compared to 33% who sided with Biden. The poll found that before the debate, 55% of respondents thought Trump would perform better in the debate, compared to 45% who sided with Biden.

Biden and Trump are expected to face off in a second debate on September 10, which will be hosted by ABC News.

Meanwhile, according to the national aggregate poll FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads Biden nationally by 1.3 points as of Sunday morning, 41.7% to 40.4%.

Update 6/30/24, 2:13 PM ET: This article has been updated with comment from Trump's spokesperson.

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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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