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GOP Faces Unique Dilemma Ahead of Trump Conviction

GOP Faces Unique Dilemma Ahead of Trump Conviction

 


Among all the other questions raised by former President Donald Trump's felony conviction, there remains one thorny problem still facing organizers of the GOP national convention in July: What if Trump is in prison when it begins?

Trump's sentencing date, July 11, comes just days before the party's convention in Milwaukee begins on July 15. He could end up behind bars before the convention begins. The chances of that happening are slim, but that hasn't stopped Republican Party officials from thinking about what to do next.

We're working on it now, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley said on Newsmax in early June.

“We hope that Donald Trump will be in Milwaukee and he can accept this nomination. And if not, we will make all the contingency plans that we need to,” Whatley said on June 4.

Whatley did not specify exactly what those contingency plans would include.

We're planning for it to be here. I think that's really where we're going to go forward. Of course, you obviously have to have contingency plans in place, Whatley told Spectrum News the next day.

Citing sources familiar with the convention planning, NBC News reported on June 13 that backup plans were being made at Trump's home in Florida and at the convention site in Milwaukee in case Trump was unable to physically attend.

These contingency plans likely won't be necessary, given the near certainty that Trump will still be a free man come convention time.

New York County Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan could certainly send Trump to prison immediately after his sentencing hearing. Indeed, the way Trump has antagonized Merchan and the criminal justice system as a whole during his trial might make that assumption more plausible. Trump will likely be free while his appeals play out, a process that could easily stretch into 2025. Judges are often reluctant to jail convicted offenders during the appeals process unless they pose a flight risk or are considered a danger to others. Trump would not meet those requirements.

If Merchan wanted to limit his travel, he could order Trump to report to a prison himself on a specific date, which would likely be after the convention.

It could also require Trump to remain under house arrest at one of his residences in New York, New Jersey or Florida. To a more limited extent, Trump's travel could be restricted, with him having to give advance notice or seek permission to travel outside a designated area.

A request for comment from the Trump campaign was not immediately responded to.

Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic consultant, said it was unlikely Trump would begin serving his sentence immediately. I think [Merchan] I would say a report in a week, a report in 10 days, if there was a prison sentence, he said.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and editor of the Sabatos Crystal Ball political newsletter, said he thinks it's unlikely Trump will be thrown in jail, but it's wise to prepare for any eventuality.

One way or another, Trump's lawyers will likely manage to get him to the convention for a live appearance. Making Trump even more of a martyr than he already is is not in the court's interest, Sabato said in an email.

But if he were in the ring, Sabato said he could attend via video link, although it's unclear how that would work.

If Trump is incarcerated, I suppose he will be able to broadcast from a room decorated with flags and banners from somewhere in the prison, he said. Live, from Rikers Island, the Republican National Convention with prisoner #384756!

Would you accept your party's nomination from a holding cell in a prison? Or maybe he'd be sentenced to house arrest, and so you'd accept the nomination from Mar-a-Lago? But I don't think that's going to happen, Shrum said.

In the past, presidential candidates have sometimes agreed to appear at the convention en route to accepting their party’s nomination. Similarly, the 2020 Democratic convention, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, featured a virtual roll call of all 50 states, in which each state submitted a 30-second video to be played during the event.

The wild card lies in how the incarceration of Trump, who claimed he was a political prisoner after his conviction, would play out politically.

Republicans were quick to point to the increase in small donations to his campaign as evidence that the trial and conviction boosted more support for Trump than it cost him, with voters unhappy with poor Trump's alleged treatment.

An Economist/YouGov poll conducted in early June, shortly after his conviction, provided some support for this idea. The survey found that 39 percent of respondents said he had been treated more harshly than other people by the justice system. But almost as many, 34%, said he had been treated more leniently.

The study also found that 92% of respondents said the verdict had not caused them to reconsider who they would vote for in November, compared with 8% who said it had.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) said an imprisoned Trump would be all the more certain to win.

If President Trump cannot physically attend the convention in Milwaukee because he continues this sham trial, the Democratic Party will elect Donald J. Trump as the 47th president, he told HuffPost.

What the Democrats don't seem to understand is that they actually pulled the scales out of Saul's eyes on the road to Damascus and people are saying, “My God, I don't want to live in a country where that can happen.”

Sabato, however, said the idea that Trump would be kept out of his own party's convention, which would benefit him, might be misplaced.

I know what we all usually say is that this will infuriate Trump's base and help him, but isn't that technique exhausted? he asked.

A stunt like this, with poor Donald being kept out of his own convention, appeals to the usual suspects, but it also underscores for non-Trump cult voters just how embarrassing and impractical a Trump presidency could prove.

The situation is, however, not completely new. Eugene V. Debs, the Socialist Party of the Americas' candidate for the White House in 1920, was behind bars in a federal prison in Atlanta for speaking out against U.S. participation in World War I.

For Debs, or as he called himself during the 1920 campaign, Convict No. 9653, it was a mixed bag, according to historians.

A film clip of Debs being informed of his nomination circulated around the country, according to The Associated Press, and he campaigned by giving a weekly statement to one of the wire services.

Debs received nearly a million votes in the 1920 presidential election. While the Socialist Party's share of the vote fell from a high of 6 percent in the 1912 election to about 3 percent, it was the second-best electoral result in party history and the best result by a third-party candidate until John B. Anderson in 1980.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), who led the Democratic National Committee during the 2012 and 2016 conventions, said Trump's physical presence likely would not be required to accept the nomination.

And she had one piece of advice for Republicans: Don't nominate someone who could potentially go to jail.

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