Trump could be first Republican to win New York and New Jersey in decades after Biden debate debacle, GOP leaders say

President Biden's debate debacle has Republican leaders in New York and New Jersey dizzy, thinking former President Donald Trump could be the first Republican to win their states in four decades.

While winning blue states is a small feat, party insiders and independent analysts expect Trump to do well enough in the suburbs to help Republican incumbents in the House of Representatives defend the seats they won in 2022 and perhaps even make gains.

“Trump can win New York like Ronald Reagan did in 1980,” said New York State Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox.

Republican leaders in New York and New Jersey believe former President Donald Trump could win the general election in their respective states. AP Photo/Steve Helber

A recent Siena College poll found Trump trailing Biden in the Empire State by 8 percentage points, 47% to 39%. The poll was conducted a week before the June 25 debate.

A Trump campaign official said internal polls also showed the New Jersey race was “undecided.” A Trump rally in May in Wildwood, southern New Jersey, drew 100,000 supporters.

Cox said Reagan won because of “stagflation” under then-Democratic President Jimmy Carter, and that similarly many voters suffered from Bidenflation.

“New York, a Democratic stronghold for decades, is within reach of Trump. The conditions are ripe for a political realignment with New York, in the context of a Trump victory,” he said.

“Although New York is a blue state, it is more blue-collar blue than Upper West Side blue.”

A poll taken before the first presidential debate showed Trump trailing Biden in New York by just 8 points. REUTERS/Brian Snyder New York State Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox said inflation could help Trump beat Biden in New York. Christopher Sadowski

He also said Trump's campaign, which focuses on the border migrant crisis, the economy and crime, resonates with frustrated blue-leaning voters in the Northeast.

“Biden’s debate performance hurts New York Democrats running for swing seats,” said O’Brien “OB” Murray, a campaign strategist who has worked for both Republicans and Democrats.

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He said first-term Republican Rep. Michael Lawyer should have an easier time winning re-election against former Democratic Congressman Mondaire Jones in the Hudson Valley's 17th Congressional District.

Murray also said Biden's implosion makes it “more difficult” for moderate Democrat John Avlon, a former Rudy Giuliani speechwriter, to unseat Republican Rep. Nick LaLota for his first term in the 1st Congressional District, which includes the East End of Long Island and Suffolk County.

Trump speaking at a campaign rally in Wildwood on April 11, 2024. Aristide Economopoulos

Meanwhile, across the Hudson, New Jersey Republicans say Trump could be the first Republican to win New Jersey since George HW Bush defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988.

“Biden's debate performance was so bad that New Jersey is definitely in play. The bottom line is that our U.S. Senate candidate, Curtis Bashaw, has a real chance and a congressman [Tom] “Kean's re-election was made easier,” said Bill Palatucci, a member of the Garden State Republican National Campaign Committee and friend of former Gov. Chris Christie.

The New Jersey Republican Party blasted an electronic fundraising campaign shortly after the debate, stating in bold letters: “NEW JERSEY IS AT STAKE.”

Biden's debate performance could put New Jersey in a strong position for Trump, according to a member of the state's National Republican Campaign Committee. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

“We are working day in and day out to reach every voter in New Jersey and get the message out that we are here to win!” the Jersey GOP said.

Doug Muzzio, a retired Baruch College public affairs professor who lives in New Jersey and who called Biden's debate performance a “disaster,” said: “New Jersey has more at stake in this election cycle.

“It’s New Jersey. Crazy things are happening in New Jersey. It's not impossible. It's plausible, but from a distance.

New York Democrats, led by Gov. Kathy Hochul, have circled Biden's wagon, despite calls from the liberal New York Times editorial board and even some Democrats that the 81-year-old should step aside and give another Democrat a chance to take on Trump.

Hochul, during an interview on MSNBC Sunday, fiercely defended Biden and urged his fellow Democrats to buckle up and get back “on the team.”

“You had a difficult night. The next morning defines you,” Hochul said.

She said Biden was “energetic, fully alert” when she saw him in New York on Friday at the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center.

“Don’t be fooled by the chatter of the political class in Washington… The editorial boards. Everyone pontificates that they have the answer. »

Biden is much better for the country than Trump, who will sow chaos and a constitutional crisis if he returns to the White House, Hochul said.

“I say to my Democratic friends: Wake up today, start with a plan, get back on the team and march to victory,” she said.

New York State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs said Biden had a “bad night” during the debate but could get back on the horse.

“I caution Republicans who are worried about a setback for the Democratic nominee, President Biden. I remember feeling giddy in 2016 when the Access Hollywood tape was released. I thought Trump was done,” Jacobs said.

Trump was caught on the infamous tape making lewd comments about women, including saying it was okay to “grab them by the shrink.” The video was released a month before the election between Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Trump won the election.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://nypost.com/2024/06/30/us-news/trump-may-be-first-republican-to-win-ny-nj-in-decades-after-biden-debate-debacle-gop-leaders-say/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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