Michelle Obama's chances of beating Donald Trump: poll

Former President Donald Trump would beat former first lady Michelle Obama in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, according to a poll conducted earlier this year.

President Joe Biden's debate performance against Trump on June 27 reinforced concerns among many Americans that, at 81, the Democrat is too old to serve a second presidential term.

Joe Biden's widely criticized performance has sparked calls for him to withdraw from the White House race to prevent Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, from winning back the White House in November. However, Seth Schuster, a spokesperson for Joe Biden's campaign, told Newsweek after the debate that Joe Biden was “not giving up.”

Several names have been floated as contenders to replace Biden, including Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic frontrunner. The odds have increased that Michelle Obama, the wife of former President Barack Obama, will eventually replace Biden as the party’s nominee, though she has repeatedly said she has no intention of ever running for president.

In March, a poll by DailyMail.com/JL Partners indicated that Michelle Obama would not beat Trump in a hypothetical matchup.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters found she would get 44% of the vote, compared to Trump's 47%. The same poll also gave Trump a 46% lead over Biden, compared to Biden's 43%.

Former first lady Michelle Obama at the US Open in New York on August 28, 2023. She has been touted as a candidate to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic Party nominee ahead of the November election. Former first lady Michelle Obama at the US Open in New York on August 28, 2023. She has been touted as a candidate to replace President Joe Biden as the Democratic Party nominee ahead of the November election. More Jackson Lee/Getty Images

Another poll in March showed Michelle Obama trailing Trump by seven points, 50% to 43%.

At the time, the former first lady's office dismissed speculation that she would launch a White House bid in 2024.

“As former first lady Michelle Obama has said repeatedly over the years, she will not run for president,” Crystal Carson, Barack Obama’s chief communications officer, told NBC News. “Mrs. Obama is supporting the re-election campaign of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.”

Newsweek has reached out to Michelle Obama's office via email for comment.

At the same time, a poll taken after Thursday's debate found that none of the big names being proposed to replace Biden would do better than the president in a two-way matchup with Trump.

“The idea of ​​Michelle Obama as the Democratic candidate is a progressive fantasy,” Thomas Gift, associate professor of political science and director of the Center for American Politics at University College London, told Newsweek.

“While many Democrats would like to see the savior of the party parachute into the convention, the chances of it being Obama are slim to none. Yet the fact that polls suggest she would fare about as well as Biden did against Trump suggests that 2024 is almost entirely a referendum on Trump. You can basically insert any generic Democratic candidate into a hypothetical showdown with Trump, and the results look similar. »

Trump criticized the former first lady's polling at a campaign event Friday, saying he didn't believe Biden would drop out of the race “because he's doing better in the polls than any of the Democrats they're talking about.” He added: “They polled everybody. They polled Michelle Obama, she polled very poorly. No, she polled very poorly.”

Update 7/1/24, 8:04 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to include comments from Thomas Gift.

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