Xi Jinping's Tactical Deception – OpEd – Eurasia Review

Despite Xi Jinping’s eulogy from Panchsheel, the strategic community notes China’s consistent “salami slicing” strategy, a methodical approach to shifting territorial boundaries through incremental actions, thereby avoiding full-scale conflict while steadily advancing its interests. This tactic has been evident not only in the Sino-Indian conflicts but also in the broader South China Sea context, demonstrating China’s adroitness in strategic maneuvering. Xi’s eulogy has deeper implications for India’s defense, border security, and territorial integrity. This analysis examines the strategic implications of Xi’s remarks, given India’s fragile political landscape post-election.

Unveiling the strategy behind Xi Jinping's eulogy

Xi Jinping’s recent praise of the Nehruvian Panchsheel principles—mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence—demands a critical and nuanced analysis. This politically motivated reference to the Panchsheel Pact, which has long been touted as the bedrock of Sino-Indian relations, comes at a time when the geopolitical landscape is fraught with tension and mistrust.

Historical backdrop

The historical context of the Sino-Indian War of 1962 is a stark reminder of the risks associated with underestimating adversary intentions. The recognition by then Defence Minister Krishna Menon of India’s unpreparedness for a full-scale conflict underscores the dangers of relying solely on diplomatic assurances from world powers to contain Chinese aggression. The conflict exposed India’s strategic vulnerabilities and highlighted the consequences of misjudging geopolitical dynamics.

China's recent evocation of the Panchsheel principles, in the context of continued territorial assertion in Ladakh and Tibet, highlights a dual-track strategy of diplomatic openings and military progress. This strategic ambiguity challenges India's perception of Chinese restraint and underscores the need for robust defense preparedness. India's dependence on Russian military supplies, exacerbated by global supply chain disruptions, further complicates its strategic position, potentially making it vulnerable to shifts in geopolitical alignment involving Beijing and Moscow.

The Panchsheel story of Xi Jinping: a political maneuver

Xi Jinping's tribute to the Panchsheel can be interpreted as a sophisticated political maneuver intended to serve multiple purposes:

Soft power and moral high ground: By invoking Panchsheel, Xi aims to present China as a principled and peace-loving nation. This narrative seeks to mask China’s aggressive posture and territorial ambitions, especially in the context of its actions in the South China Sea and the ongoing border standoff with India.

Exploiting internal divisions: The political landscape in India after the 2024 elections is fragile and carries significant domestic challenges. By focusing on Panchsheel, Xi is attempting to exploit internal divisions within India, appealing to factions likely to favor a more conciliatory approach towards China. This could destabilize the position of the current government and create divisions within the political and policy community.

Deflecting international criticism: Amid global scrutiny over its human rights record, particularly in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and its assertive policies in the Indo-Pacific, China seeks to deflect critics by emphasizing its alleged commitment to peaceful coexistence. Panchsheel constitutes a practical rhetorical tool in this regard.

Strategic Deception: The Reality of China's Intentions

Despite the rhetoric, China's actions on the ground tell a different story. The aggressive maneuvers in eastern Ladakh, the bloody clash in the Galwan Valley in 2020 and the attempted capture of the Yangtze in 2022 are glaring reminders of China's strategic duplicity. These actions are inconsistent with the principles of Panchsheel and highlight China's strategy of gradually gaining territory, often referred to as “salami cutting.”

China's construction of infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), including air bases, heliports and all-weather roads, further indicates a long-term strategic intent that goes beyond mere skirmishes borders. This military buildup contradicts the narrative of peaceful coexistence and underscores the importance for India of maintaining a strong and vigilant defense posture.

Economic implications and strategic autonomy

India’s dependence on Russian military hardware, exacerbated by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, presents a significant strategic vulnerability. This dependence not only affects India’s defense preparedness but also limits its strategic autonomy. Xi Jinping’s Panchsheel speech could be an attempt to exploit this vulnerability by offering a veneer of peaceful intentions while continuing to strengthen China’s strategic position.

To remedy this, India must diversify its purchases of defense equipment and strengthen its national production capacities. Strengthening alliances with like-minded countries is also essential to counterbalance China's regional influence.

Political impact: Destabilization of the post-election landscape in India

After the 2024 elections, India will have to strike a delicate balance between maintaining internal stability and managing external threats. Xi Jinping’s eulogy, if not critically examined, could resonate with some political factions advocating a less confrontational approach towards China. This could undermine the current government’s efforts to forge a coherent national security strategy.

The political opposition in India could exploit Xi Jinping's statements to criticize the government's handling of Sino-Indian relations, which could lead to a fragmented policy approach. This internal discord could weaken India's negotiating position and diminish its ability to respond effectively to Chinese provocations.

The need for vigilance and realism

Xi Jinping’s references to the Panchsheel policy, while ostensibly a call for peace and cooperation, must be viewed with skepticism in light of China’s historical and recent actions along the Sino-Indian border. India must remain vigilant and not fall into the trap of comforting assumptions about China’s intentions. A robust defense strategy, a realistic assessment of geopolitical alliances, and a strong national consensus on national security are essential to counter the multifaceted threat posed by China.

India must learn from its historical experiences and recognize the strategic nuances behind China's diplomatic overtures. Only through a combination of military preparedness, strategic alliances and internal political cohesion can India effectively navigate the complex dynamics of Sino-Indian relations and safeguard its national interests.