New mediation efforts between Syria's Assad and Turkey's Erdogan face obstacles

An Iran-backed Iraqi initiative for a rapprochement between President Bashar al-Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing obstacles over how to deal with a Kurdish militia and the return of masses of refugees to the country, a Syrian source briefed by Turkish intelligence said. The National.

It is the latest diplomatic move, backed by US opponents, aimed at restoring ties between Ankara and Damascus. Their forces and militia allies have clashed during the Syrian civil war, as the country was fragmented into zones controlled by Turkey, Iran, the United States and Russia.

An Iraqi Foreign Ministry official said: The National Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani has been in contact with the two men as part of mediation efforts that have been warmly welcomed by both men.

He ruled out a presidential-level meeting, but said a meeting between Turkish and Syrian officials could be considered. [occurring] very soon in Baghdad.

Relations between Mr Erdogan and Mr Assad deteriorated after a peaceful pro-democracy uprising broke out in southern Syria in March 2011. The protests quickly spread and demanded the president's ouster. Security forces cracked down on the protests and the conflict later escalated into a full-blown civil war.

A rapprochement, however, could weaken Washington's position in Syria, where it is the ultimate protector of anti-Turkish Kurdish militias concentrated in areas near the Euphrates basin, which contain most of Syria's oil fields.

Mr Al Sudani initiated the diplomatic process, including the reestablishment of diplomatic missions between Damascus and Ankara, after a meeting with Mr Erdogan in Baghdad in late April, said the source, who is a member of the Syrian opposition.

Mr Erdogan discussed Turkish military operations against the Iraq-based Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the source said.

The PKK's sister militia, the People's Protection Units (YPG), operates in Syria with US support.

Ankara considers the expansion of two Kurdish groups in Syria over the past decade as one of the most serious threats to its security.

Erdogan agreed to accede to the Iraqi request in an attempt to resolve issues with Assad, knowing that Iran is behind it, the source said.

Mr Erdogan, the source said, accepted a proposal presented by Iraqi officials on behalf of Iran to open a passage for goods between the Turkish-controlled zone in Syria and areas under Mr Al Assad's control.

The crossing, near the Al Bab region in northern Syria, opened last month, according to a local resident.

At the same time, Turkish officials demanded that the Syrian army carry out offensive actions against the YPG.

Damascus and the YPG have largely coexisted over the past decade, with regime forces allowed to operate freely in YPG-controlled urban centers.

The Turkish position is that Assad wants to enjoy all the benefits of rehabilitation without doing anything to deserve it, the source said.

Nor does he want to confront the United States in a serious manner.

Another point of contention is the safe return of refugees to Syria, the source said.

Over the past five years, Turkey has established what it considers safe zones inside Syria, to which it has expelled thousands of Syrian refugees seeking safety in the country.

It also wants to see Syrian refugees return to areas under Syrian government control, but has not received satisfactory assurances from Syrian authorities that they will not be persecuted or subjected to violence, the source said.

Turkey has joined Arab countries in supporting Sunni rebel groups fighting the ruling elite, dominated by Mr Assad's Alawite minority. The 2015 Russian intervention reversed most of the rebel gains and returned large swathes of Syrian territory to central authorities.

But in the first quarter of 2020, Turkey and Russia nearly went to war in Syria, after Turkey repelled a Russia-backed offensive by the Syrian army and pro-Iranian militias against an opposition stronghold in Idlib province, which is part of the Turkish zone in Syria.

An agreement between President Vladimir Putin and Mr Erdogan averted a direct war between the two powers. Since then, Russia has been trying to mend ties between the two neighbouring leaders.

The source said a ministerial-level meeting could still take place in the coming weeks in Baghdad, unless it is overshadowed by continued Russian efforts to have Messrs. Al Assad and Erdogan meet face to face.

Some Turkish media reported that the two men could meet on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, which Vladimir Putin will attend.

A senior Iraqi official said serious and active work was underway on the Syrian issue and there were positive signs, but declined to give further details.

Lizzie Porter reported from Istanbul

Updated: July 1, 2024, 7:51 p.m.