Taiwan learns lessons from Russian invasion of Ukraine

The prospect of Xi following in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s footsteps and attempting to seize territory across the strait seems more likely than before. And Taiwan, with new infusions of U.S. military aid, is preparing more vigorously to counter that threat. For the Taiwanese public, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought some perspective, some reality, to the dangers on their doorstep, Alexander Tah-ray Yui, Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to Washington, told me.

Last year, Taiwan increased its defense spending by 14 percent over the previous budget. The training period for compulsory military service was extended from four months to a year. Like Ukraine, Taiwan is trying to develop its asymmetric warfare capabilities in the face of a much larger and more powerful aggressor. Its officials have noted the whole-of-society involvement that went into Ukraine’s defense, the civic resilience, as Yui put it, that underpinned the courage with which Ukrainian forces defied the odds and repelled Russian conquest in the early months of the war.

People will only help you if you help yourself, said Yui, whom I interviewed at the historic Twin Oaks mansion that was once the residence of the Republic of China’s ambassadors in Washington before it was closed when the United States chose to formally recognize the communist government in Beijing in 1979. So that’s one of the biggest lessons we learned from Ukraine.

The situation remains tense across the Taiwan Strait, but tensions have increased in recent weeksChina launched aggressive military exercises to mark the inauguration in May of newly elected Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, a politician who is decried as a separatist in Beijing, where Taiwan is still considered a rebel province. A flood of anti-Taiwan rhetoric followed, with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, speaking at a security forum in Singapore last month, calling Lai and his allies in the ruling Democratic Progressive Party traitors to the Chinese people.

At the summit, Dong echoed China’s new narrative on Taiwan, which sees its leaders, along with its supporters in the United States, seeking a gradual separation from China. Taiwan, which has declared itself the Republic of China since Nationalist forces fleeing the victorious Communists seized control of the island in 1949, has never formally declared independence from China, and most of its population would prefer to maintain a stable, if tenuous, status quo.

The country is not recognized by most United Nations member states and lives in something of a diplomatic vacuum, denied entry into major international institutions but also a source of great affection and concern among U.S. lawmakers and successive U.S. administrations. President Biden alone has authorized some 15 arms sales to Taiwan since taking office in 2021.

Over the past three decades, Taiwan has transformed itself into a thriving and vibrant multi-party democracy, at complete odds with Beijing's political system. Recent Poll Researchers found that nearly two-thirds of Taiwan's population considers themselves primarily Taiwanese in identity, rather than Chinese, a reality that runs counter to Chinese propaganda that Taiwan and its people are merely an extension of a larger Chinese nation.

most [the Peoples Republic of China] attempts to crush Taiwan's internal freedom and our own sovereignty and insists that we are a renegade provinceIn fact, the more they push us away, Yui told me.

Taiwan's ambassador to Washington pointed to the decline in investment by Taiwanese companies in China and the cooling of economic relations between the two countries over the past decade. Yui said it was better for the two countries to prosper together, but China should accept who we are, accept our existence and treat us accordingly.

All the noise coming from Xi and the Communist Party elites around him suggests that Beijing has no interest in reconciling with the ruling DPP in Taipei and views the growing US investment in Taiwan’s security as a provocative threat. Unlike the contentious debate over Ukraine funding, there have yet to be partisan disagreements in Congress over support for Taiwan, and Yui has expressed gratitude to both Democrats and Republicans for their continued support for Taiwan’s cause.

In Washington, some experts worry that the United States' massive support for Ukraine's war effort could cripple its ability to bolster Taiwan's defense. Some lawmakers have argued that the United States should focuses primarily on protection against Chinese expansionismeven if it means allowing Russia to consolidate its illegal gains in Ukraine.

Yui rejected the need for such a compromise. The United States is the world's leading power, he said, adding that it still has the capability to deal with different scenarios, different theaters of operations and different challenges.

Taiwan’s survival and its ability to thwart or, more accurately, deter a Chinese invasion have enormous international implications. Yui spoke of the principles of a rules-based order, the importance of never allowing might to prevail over right. He also acknowledged the enormous economic stakes: as the world’s largest producer of ultra-advanced semiconductors, Taiwan is a key cog in the global economy and at the heart of myriad global supply chains.

The war in Ukraine has had an impact on food and energy prices in far-flung Eastern Europe, but that turbulence could be insignificant compared to the chaos unleashed by a Chinese invasion. A conflict in the Indo-Pacific region would be a much bleaker scenario, Yui said.

To that end, he acknowledged that Taiwan and its allies must put in place a set of fortifications, defensive capabilities and diplomatic arrangements elsewhere that deter Beijing from making the kind of move the Kremlin made in 2022.

We need to make sure that every time Xi Jinping wakes up every day, Yui concludes, he looks in the mirror and says, “I don't think today is the day.”