Here's Why Britain's Conservatives Are About to Be Slaughtered

As Americans celebrate Independence Day on Thursday, Britons will head to the polls for the country's first general election since December 2019. And the outcome seems almost a foregone conclusion: the ruling Conservative Party will be soundly defeated.

In one sense, the likely outcome does not seem so surprising. The Conservatives have been in power since David Cameron’s first election victory in the spring of 2010. And long-serving governments – the Conservatives after 18 years in power from 1979 to 1997 and Labour at the end of their 13-year term from 1997 to 2010 – tend to burn out: the best cabinet members retire, the party’s policies become obsolete, voters tire of foreign policy. status quoAnd so on.

But the scale and scope of the impending catastrophe seem far greater than those of previous electoral defeats and may suggest something much deeper. Consider this poll from early June, which found that only 42% of respondents who voted conservative in 2019 would vote for the party again on Thursday:

Among 2019 Conservative voters:

The lowest percentage since Sunak became Prime Minister.

Westminster VI, Conservatives 2019 (31 May – 2 June):

Conservative 42% (-4)
Work 21% (+2)
Reform 19% (+1)
Others 6% (-1)
I don't know 11% (-1)

Changes +/- May 25-27https://t.co/OXNaqzy6qY pic.twitter.com/c00Onrhby6

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) June 3, 2024

Even though Joe Biden had a poor performance in last Thursday’s debate, it’s unlikely that just 42% of his 2020 supporters will vote for him next November. So what’s going on with the British Conservatives?

From Theresa May to Boris Johnson

In some ways, the roots of this fiasco go back to Theresa May’s failed attempt to call a snap (i.e., a surprise) general election in the spring of 2017. That election cost the Conservatives seats and nearly cost them their majority in the House of Commons. The narrow margins in Parliament meant that lawmakers spent two years going around in circles on the Brexit issue, with most opposition parties, as well as some Conservatives, trying to weaken or reverse the effects of the 2016 referendum on the UK’s exit from the European Union.

May eventually resigned, and the Conservative Party chose Boris Johnson to replace her. Johnson called a snap election in late 2019, promising to deliver Brexit. The combination of working-class support for Brexit in Labour’s traditional strongholds, coupled with a Labour Party that had moved so far to the left under Jeremy Corbyn that it was unelected, gave Johnson a solid majority.

A few weeks after the election, Johnson made good on his promise and passed a law formally decoupling Britain from the European Union. This of course raised an obvious question: Now what?

Bad policies

Johnson’s promise to get Brexit done won him the support of conservatives, who desperately wanted Britain out of the EU. But the rest of his agenda – high taxes and redistributive spending, which revives the one-nation conservative mantra little used since the 1950s and 1960s – violates the principles of small government.

When Covid arrived, Johnson responded with a series of lockdowns, stricter than those imposed in the United States, and massive public spendingIt also led to a case of regicide, when Conservative MPs launched a putsch to oust Johnson after he and his team breached lockdown protocols and arguably misled parliament about their efforts.

The second episode of regicide came shortly after, when Conservative MPs ousted Liz Truss as Johnson’s successor. Conservative Party members had voted for Truss by 57 to 43 percent. But a financial crisis allegedly triggered by her tax cut proposals and the Bank of England’s ill-timed actions also played a role, prompting Conservative MPs to sack her and appoint the man she had beaten in the party leadership election two months earlier, Rishi Sunak, as prime minister.

No idea what the problems are

The budget chaos of two years ago led to rising mortgage rates that seriously undermined traditional conservative policies. sincerity as good economic stewards. Since then, Sunak has done a good job of destroying the rest. Consider this response to Parliament The day in May when Sunak called the general election:

Inflation is now back to normal, and is even lower than in France, Germany and the United States. Inflation is at its lowest level in years, our economy is growing faster and wages are rising, so we must stick to the plan that is working.

“Bringing inflation back to normal,” a phrase Sunak used no fewer than six times during a 30-minute question-and-answer session after several years of soaring prices, shows a muted political ear, as workers’ wages have yet to catch up with rising costs at grocery stores and for mortgages. It also strengthens Sunak, who previously worked for Goldman Sachs and has a family net worth (largely his wife) greater than kings, as a wealthy aristocrat ignoring the struggles of working class voters.

Similarly, the Conservatives have failed to find an answer to one of the great political problems on both sides of the Atlantic: rising migration flows. Sunak implemented a plan The British government has decided to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, but legal delays mean the policy has yet to take effect. In the meantime, Reform UK, led by perennial political candidate Nigel Farage, continues to attack the Conservatives over the issue.

The election campaign has not been very successful for the Conservatives. Sunak left the D-Day anniversary commemorations early to record an interview and I had to apologize to do this. In recent weeks, the Gamblegate The scandal in which several Tory officials are under investigation for using inside information to bet on the election date has shown a political class unconcerned about breaking the rules, as in the Partygate scandal where Johnson's staff breached Covid lockdown measures. Sunak image standing outside Downing Street, getting soaked by the rain As he delivered his speech announcing the general election, it proved an apt metaphor for the party's electoral fortunes as the Fourth of July approaches.

Where are the conservatives going?

Eighty-nine years ago, George Dangerfields The Strange Death of Liberal England The 20th century was an opportunity to trace the series of events that saw the decimation of the Liberal Party and the rise of the Labour Party. Nearly nine decades later, one wonders whether a similar fate could befall the Conservatives. With Keir Starmer having rehabilitated Labour’s image on the economy and anti-Semitism, and Farage attacking from the right on immigration and spending issuesConservatives find themselves stuck in both directions.

With Starmer and Labour expected to win a landslide majority, the Tories in exile in the wilderness will likely spend years (at a minimum) trying to redefine who they are and what they stand for. do not seem favorable:

Conservative Party members could lose their final say on who will lead the Conservative Party as senior figures consider changing the rules in the event of an election defeat. Two cabinet ministers have expressed interest in the Conservative Party. [Daily] Telegraph about the dilution of members' voting power, given criticism of how the rank and file selected Liz Truss in 2022.

A helpful tip: When public support is at an all-time low, deciding to ignore public opinion even further is not a good idea. Listen to voters, find concrete ways to control taxes, spending, and immigration, and apologize for years of watching and acting out of step with the electorate.

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