Politics
Chances of Taiwan-China Reunification 'Zero' What About War? – National Press Foundation
There is no solution to the situations in Taiwan and Gaza, says former Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan.
Most international problems have no solution, but they can be managed, says Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“This is good news for diplomats and journalists because it means we will never be unemployed,” he told NPF International Trade Journalism Fellows.
According to Kausikan, Taiwan and Gaza fall into this management category, at best.
The prospect of Taiwan joining China is “zero,” Kausikan said.
“Why would Taiwanese people want to voluntarily reunify? There is no support for either extreme of unilateral independence or reunification. Most people want the status quo to be maintained and I think the status quo can be maintained.
But while Kausikan criticizes Chinese leader Xi Jinping as “poor in governance,” he does not foresee war.
“Whatever you may think of the Chinese leadership, they are not gamblers and they are not going to take risks with what is most important to them, which is the continuation of the party's power.[…]If there is a risk, it will be a conflict by accident, by miscalculation, and not a war that is intended.”
There are two scenarios the Chinese must contend with, he said. “The first is a very low-probability, high-impact scenario, which would occur if Taiwan were to revive its nuclear weapons ambitions… The higher-probability scenario would be one where Taiwan's domestic politics took a strange turn.”
Kausikan says a big part of international relations and diplomacy is about maintaining credible myths so people don't take drastic action, which is true in both Taiwan and Gaza, he said, “which gives you something to write about.”
“Gaza has been mismanaged for a long time,” Kausikan said.
Although the two-state solution is favored by many countries, “I haven’t seen anyone propose a viable two-state solution,” Kausikan said, predicting that the conflict would remain subregional and not expand. After the “mistakes” made in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States is “doing offshore balancing” with Gaza, Kausikan said.
“There are protests against Gaza at universities, but the protests against the Vietnam War were much worse. Why? Because Americans were dying.”
Read it full transcript here.
This scholarship is part of an ongoing program of journalism training and awards for business coverage sponsored by the Hinrich Foundation. The National Press Foundation is solely responsible for the content. All programs are recorded andresources and transcriptsThe results of this and previous scholarships are published.
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