Trump Wins Near-Estate Victory in Supreme Court: Political Editor's View

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from NBC News Politics on the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Jonathan Allen looks back on a good day for Donald Trump on the Supreme Court. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray and campaign manager Katherine Koretski explore the key role casual voters could play in this year’s election.

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Trump's Near-Complete Victory in Supreme CourtBy Jonathan Allen

Donald Trump won a near-total victory on Monday at the Supreme Court on several fronts.

The 6-3 majority opinion grants him and future presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution for actions taken in connection with their office, virtually guarantees that he will not face trial in his federal election interference case until after the November election, and endorses his view that the nation's chief executive should have nearly unlimited powers.

It is not yet clear how voters will perceive the court's decision in favor of Trump, which is a typical pattern of six Republican-appointed justices teaming up to defeat three Democratic-appointed justices.

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While Trump did not get the blanket immunity he claims he is entitled to, the Court appears to have granted presidents even greater protection than his lawyers sought. Ultimately, Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, established three categories for reviewing a president’s criminal activities: official acts, unofficial acts, and acts that do not easily fall into one category or the other.

The president is immune from prosecution for his official acts, but he does not enjoy legal protection for acts committed outside his official duties. But for the third category, Roberts writes, courts must make decisions on a case-by-case basis, with the president enjoying a considerable advantage: presumptive immunity.

The burden is therefore on special counsel Jack Smith to demonstrate that Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election were undertaken beyond the outer perimeter of official acts. Moreover, Roberts concluded, acts for which the president is immune from prosecution cannot be used as evidence in prosecutions related to unofficial acts.

Roberts said the move is a clear attempt to convince the public that this is not just about Trump. It is now about an expansion of presidential powers.

But the question has been raised and answered to the extent that Trump’s extraordinary efforts to overturn the 2020 election seem far more important and closer than lasting changes in the balance of power. Trump is a unique figure in American political history, and he has pushed the boundaries of presidential power both as commander in chief and as a former incumbent of that role.

A good way to know that the decision is about the present moment, not history and the Constitution: the Court's vague rules for distinguishing between official and unofficial acts. The opinion is an invitation to resubmit to the Supreme Court any future decision by a trial judge on this issue.

Roberts also wrote that the president is not above the law. But the decision makes clear that the president is not held accountable for a wide range of offenses that might otherwise be considered criminal. The president may not be above the law, but in Roberts’s view, he is above his fellow citizens and above being prosecuted for many crimes.

From an electoral perspective, the opinion gives Trump at least temporary validation for his claim that he did nothing illegal. That remains to be seen, but Smith's case just got considerably more complicated.

Democrats will have to argue that electing Trump to a position that is now more powerful than the one he left is a nightmare for the country. But President Joe Biden, weakened by his disastrous performance in last week’s debate and long reluctant to publicly criticize the court, may be unlikely to do so effectively. It may not be written into his constitution.

Read more from NBC News' Lawrence Hurley on what the court's decision could mean for future presidents

Meet the swing voters who could decide the outcome of the 2024 electionBy Mark Murray and Katherine Koretski

Neither Joseph Mitchum nor Laura Brooks ran in the last presidential election four years ago.

But voters like them could well decide the outcome of the White House race in November.

Mitchum, a Georgia native, and Brooks, who lives in Michigan, both participated in NBC News polls this year and told pollsters they would support Trump over Biden, reflecting a general trend in public polling showing Trump has a significant advantage among those who did not vote in 2020.

The results of the last three NBC News national polls, all conducted before last week's debate, show a whopping 25-point swing in Trump's favor among voters who did not turn out in both 2020 and 2022, compared to voters who voted in the last two national elections.

If those voters show up to the polls this time, it could mean the difference between Trump winning and losing. And both Mitchum and Brooks point to the big question of whether those 2020 non-voters will actually show up to the polls in November.

Mitchum, 24, said he would definitely vote in 2024 after not registering to vote in 2020. Yes, I will vote, he told NBC News in a follow-up interview.

“I really don’t like what’s happening at our border,” he added, explaining why he supports Trump. “Another reason is that I’m biased toward my gun rights.”

But Brooks, 25, said in her follow-up interview that she likely wouldn’t vote in November, even though she said she would support Trump in one poll. (Like Mitchum, Brooks wasn’t registered to vote in 2020.)

Biden seems to be a little senile now, she told NBC News. And with Trump, there are all these legal questions that are coming up around him.

I've never seen such a pony show, Brooks added.

Learn more about 2024 sporadic voters

Today’s Big Stories Cleaning up Aisle 46: As Biden gathered with family this weekend who urged him to keep fighting after last week’s debate, his advisers worked to privately counter suggestions that the president should withdraw from the Democratic nomination. Read more Whitmer says she’s with Joe: Politico explores the push to tap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to replace Biden, whom the Michigan Democrat distanced herself from in a call with a senior Biden campaign official. Read more On the ballot: Nevada became the sixth state where an amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution will go directly to voters in November. Read more Bannon reports to prison: Trump ally Steve Bannon said he was proud to go to prison as he reported Monday for a four-month sentence for defying congressional subpoenas. Read more Helping the West in the West: Agents tied to a Republican-leaning firm are helping collect signatures on behalf of independent presidential candidate Cornel West in Arizona. Read more Go your own way: Justice Amy Coney Barrett has solidified the Supreme Court’s conservative leanings, but she has written several opinions critical of her right-wing colleagues and has sometimes sided with liberal justices. Read more Hanging up your running shoes: The Supreme Court is now publishing its decisions online, meaning the summer tradition of having interns run to report decisions is no more. Read more

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