What's behind China's overtures to Central Asian countries? Firstpost

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Tuesday, July 2. He is scheduled to attend the 24th meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). He is then expected to travel to Tajikistan.

The tour, which included a meeting with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and a visit to Tajikistan at the invitation of President Emomali Rahmon, should be seen as part of Beijing's broader strategy to expand its influence in Central Asia.

There is a power vacuum in Central Asia, and China, which has deep interests in the region, has seized the opportunity to fill this vacuum. It has already adapted its approach to the region to achieve this goal. We explain all this in detail.

Power vacuum in Central Asia

Since 2021, the Central Asian republics have faced increasing internal and external challenges. Border clashes and internal unrest have exacerbated regional instability. With Russia shifting its military and political focus to Ukraine, its historical role as a security guarantor in Central Asia has weakened, creating a vacuum that China is eager to fill. The diminishing influence of the United States in the region, especially after its troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, presents another strategic opportunity for Beijing to strengthen its role in the region.

China's increased engagement in Central Asia is a calculated move to protect its interests amid changing dynamics. Beijing intends to leverage its economic power and political influence to assert its presence, capitalizing on the region's strategic importance and rich natural resources.

China's interest in Central Asian republics

Central Asia is of major strategic and economic importance to Beijing. The region has vast reserves of energy resources, including natural gas and oil, which are crucial to China’s energy security. In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, China extended large loans to energy-rich Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, cementing its role as a key economic partner, according to ORF. Turkmenistan received $3 billion, while Kazakhstan secured $10 billion under a “loan-for-oil” deal, facilitating China’s access to their natural gas reserves.

Infrastructure projects such as the China-Central Asia gas pipeline and the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline only demonstrate the importance China places on securing its energy supplies in the region.

Central Asian countries also provide a vital transit route for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China's flagship infrastructure project aimed at improving connectivity and trade between China and Europe.

Then there is the issue of trade. According to a 2023 Euronet report, China was Central Asia’s largest trading partner. In the first nine months of 2023, the country accounted for 21.3% of Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade, valued at $21.7 billion. Similarly, China held a 21.3% share of trade turnover with Uzbekistan, worth $12.23 billion in the first 11 months of 2023. Clearly, the region is a key market for China.

The proximity of several Central Asian countries to the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where Chinese authorities have been repressing the Uyghur ethnic minority, adds another layer to Beijing’s interest in the region. Central Asian cooperation is crucial for China to maintain stability in Xinjiang and secure its hydrocarbon resources. In exchange for Chinese loans and investment, the Central Asian republics have taken steps to crack down on Uyghur organizations and increase surveillance of the Uyghur population within their borders.

China’s ambitions extend to the defense sector, where it seeks to capture the CAR’s defense equipment market. From providing financial assistance for military modernization to supplying weapons and military equipment, China has significantly increased its defense cooperation with Central Asian countries. For example, the Kyrgyz Republic received $16 million in 2014 and $14.5 million in 2017 for the modernization of its weapons and the housing of its military personnel. Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have also benefited from Chinese military aid and arms sales, reflecting China’s strategic interest in strengthening its influence in the region’s security dynamics.

China's Efforts to Fill the Power Vacuum

China has been rethinking its approach to Central Asia to fill the void left by other world powers. Traditionally, Chinese diplomacy in Central Asia has taken place through bilateral meetings and under the auspices of the SCO. But last year, the world witnessed a shift: China hosted the first-ever China-Central Asia summit in Xi'an, a historic city and the eastern starting point of the ancient Silk Road.

The Xi'an summit provided an opportunity for China to underscore its historic ties with Central Asia and its commitment to regional development. President Xi Jinping pledged billions of dollars in development assistance, with a focus on poverty reduction, food security and green development. He also called for increased regional connectivity and greater energy cooperation, describing China as a benevolent and desirable economic partner.

The summit allowed China to play a more direct and significant role in Central Asia, beyond its traditional bilateral engagements. By holding such high-level summits, China aims to institutionalize its relations with Central Asian countries and consolidate its influence in the region.

China’s economic engagement with Central Asia has also intensified. According to a 2023 report by Eurasianet, China has overtaken Russia to become Central Asia’s largest trading partner. This shift reflects China’s growing economic influence and its ability to leverage trade and investment to deepen its influence in the region.

Mutual interests at stake

While China’s ambitions in Central Asia are clear, Central Asian countries themselves have strategic interests in building strong ties with Beijing. As landlocked countries dependent on Russia, China, or sanctioned Iran and Afghanistan for trade routes, Central Asian states are seeking to balance their relationships to maximize connectivity without becoming overly reliant on any one power.

Central Asian countries seek to maintain “multi-vector” foreign policies that allow them to maintain good relations with Russia, China, the West, and other neighbors. This approach allows them to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape and avoid choosing sides in great-power competition.

For Central Asian countries, engagement with China offers economic opportunities and development assistance. However, they also seek to avoid over-reliance on Beijing and strive to balance their external relations to preserve their sovereignty and strategic autonomy.

With contributions from agencies