South China Sea: Why Duterte in the Philippines could reverse his pro-Beijing stance

Over the last six years of his tenure, Duterte has stressed the importance of continuing negotiations to resolve the maritime dispute. He has worked to mend ties with Beijing, which had frayed after the international arbitration tribunal in The Hague rejected China’s sweeping claims to the disputed waterway in 2016. Duterte has also been hostile to the United States and distanced Manila from military cooperation with Washington.

Political analyst Edmund Tayao, president and CEO of think tank Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, told This Week in Asia that Duterte's new stance was a tactic to win over many Filipinos who have become wary of Beijing since his daughter Sara and the country's vice president announced that three members of her family, including father Duterte, would run in next year's senatorial elections.

This is the only probable reason. He must take the popular position otherwise many people will probably change their minds. [away from] Tayao said that the support he originally had is still popular. It seems that he is still popular, but not as popular as before.

The survey, conducted in March as part of a series of private Octa Research polls that have been tracking Filipino attitudes toward the South China Sea conflict since 2021, found that 73% of 1,200 respondents nationwide supported further assertion of the Philippines' territorial rights through military action, such as expanded naval patrols and troop presence in the West Philippine Sea.

Duterte had wavered on some issues before when he was president. Perhaps it was because he weighed the pros and cons and thought it was time to adapt or reevaluate the former leader's current position, Tayao said.

In this case, it became clear that his previous position, which was openly pro-China, was not popular and he needed to maintain his popularity, hence the need to adopt a different position. He justified this change of position [by saying] that before there was no conflict, hence his previous position, he added.

Security analyst Chester Cabalza, president of the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, told This Week in Asia that Duterte’s comments were meant to send a strong message to the Marcos Jr. administration to protect Sara Duterte’s 2028 presidential bid, as the Dutertes have been known for surprise moves and strategic ambiguities during elections. Marcos Jr.’s term will end in 2028, as the president is limited to a single six-year term under Philippine law.

It may be seen as revenge for Marcos' pivot to Washington after Rodrigo Duterte befriended Beijing during his term, but after a failed rapprochement, it [Duterte] He has reestablished his ties with the United States, Cabalza said.

This is the result of a changing foreign policy in the Philippines due to choices made by dynastic rulers amid volatility in the West Philippine Sea, he added.

After entering Malacaang Palace in 2022, Marcos Jnr issued strong statements on the South China Sea conflict and vowed not to give up a single square inch of Philippine territory.

Joshua Espea, a resident fellow and vice president for International Development and Security Cooperation, said family interests weighed most heavily behind Duterte's recent remarks.

He is trying to salvage his family's future in Philippine politics since territorial integrity is a default to gain the appeal of the military lobby at the expense of Marcos Jnr in the upcoming 2025 and 2028 election cycles. This is less of a retraction than a recalibration, Espea said.

So it seems that Duterte is using more smokescreens to keep Marcos Jnr in limbo but ultimately to win the blessing of the military lobby to ensure the longevity of his stay in the game of thrones.

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Chinese, Philippine ships clash in first incident under Beijing's new coast guard law

Chinese, Philippine ships clash in first incident under Beijing's new coast guard law

Sue China

Meanwhile, during a Thanksgiving dinner on June 28 aboard the BRP Melchora Aquino, a Philippine patrol vessel deployed in the South China Sea, former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio proposed that the government file new arbitration cases against China over its actions.

“We should file a new request for arbitration. China is afraid that the Philippines will file a new request for arbitration. In fact, we should file multiple requests for arbitration,” said Carpio, who played a leading role in the Philippines-China case at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that ended in Manila’s favor in 2016.

Let's challenge China to submit the entire Spratly territorial dispute to arbitration at the International Court of Justice [ICJ] …I have said this before, but we must finally and formally challenge China. China will either resign itself or keep quiet. China knows that it will lose in any arbitration because its claim is very weak and very dubious. It is fictitious, he added.

At the same event, Marcos Jr.'s national security adviser, Eduardo Ao, reassured the public that the administration would continue to defend the country's territorial integrity and sovereign rights in the face of Chinese incursions.

“Although we vehemently denounce and repeatedly express grave concerns over our neighbor's continued hostile behavior, our commitment and pursuit of peace and stability in and around our territory are not set aside,” Ao said.

He urged China to respect international laws in line with Beijing's statements.

“Faced with all these foreign incursions, we are determined as never before to progressively strengthen our defense capabilities to effectively deter and counter all threats to the peace and security of our nations,” he added.