Latest UK voting intentions (28 June – 2 July 2024)

Redfield & Wilton Strategies' final national Westminster voting intentions poll ahead of Thursday's general election Labour leads with 19%four points less than in our previous survey published last Thursday.

Labour's national lead is below 20% in our polls for the first time in March 10Labour's 41% vote share is its lowest level in our polls since Boris Johnson was Prime Minister (having been at 41% only once, on 7 May 2023, and never lower since being replaced by Liz Truss).

The Conservatives (22%) meanwhile secured their highest share of the vote in our Westminster voting intention poll since 27 May (our first poll after the election was called, in which they had 23%).

Our poll was conducted among an extra-large sample of 20,000 voters across Britain from Friday 28 June to Monday 2 July, with additional intra-regional weightings.

Overall, the full figures (with changes from June 26 to 27 in parentheses) are as follows:

Work 41% (-1)
Conservative 22% (+3)
UK Reform 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% ()
Others 2% ()

Including those who say they do not know who they will vote for in the general election, Labour leads with 18%.

After weighting by the probability of voting, 6% of the sample said they do not know who they will vote for, including 6% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just 2% of those who voted Labour.

Distributed according to the 2019 vote, 80% of those who voted Labour in the last general election say they will vote Labour againwhile 24% of those who voted for the Liberal Democrats and 14% of those who voted for the Greens in the last election also say they will now vote for Labour. 86% of those who voted for the Brexit Party in 2019 now say they will vote for that party’s renamed successor, Reform UK.

37% of those who did not vote in 2019 say they will vote Labour, while 14% of this group will vote Reform UK and 10% Conservative. 18% of those who did not vote in 2019 are undecided.

46% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now say they will vote Conservative againThis is seven points higher than in our previous poll and the highest percentage of 2019 Conservatives who said they would vote for the party again since the general election was called (tied with May 25-27).

23% of 2019 Conservative voters say they will vote for Reform UK, while 19% will vote Labour.

When broken down by gender and age (and still including undecided voters), Work is the most popular choice for women with 21% and for men with 15%.

The gap between Labour and the Conservatives among men ranges from 35 points among men aged 18 to 24 (47% versus 12%) to just one point among men over 65 (30% versus 29%).

Reform UK performs best among men aged 45-54 (21%) and 55-64 (20%), while the Liberal Democrats perform best among men aged over 65 (11%).

Labour leads Conservatives among women in all age groupsfrom 43 points among women aged 18 to 24 (50% versus 7%) to five points among women over 65 (31% versus 26%).

Reform UK scores best among women aged 45-54 (17%) and 55-64 (16%), while the Liberal Democrats attract the support of 11% of women aged 35-44, 45-54 and over 65s.

Women aged 35 to 44 (9%), 45 to 54 (10%) and 55 to 64 (9%) are the groups most likely to be undecided about how they will vote on Thursday.

When undecided voters (6% of the sample, weighted by likelihood of voting) are asked which way they are most likely to vote, 17% say they are most likely to vote Labour, 14% say they are most likely to vote Conservative, and 29% say they are most inclined towards not vote rather than vote.

Among 2019 Conservative voters who now don't know how they would vote on July 4 (a cohort that makes up 6% of 2019 Conservative voters), 28% say they are more likely to vote Conservativewhile 20% are closest to voting for Reform UK, 15% for Labour and 13% for the Liberal Democrats.

Another 15 percent are closer to not voting at all than to voting for one of the parties mentioned.

58% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a general election, before health care (55%). Respondents also select immigration (39%), accommodation (23%), and Police and crime (18%).

When British voters' voting intentions are broken down by what they consider to be the most important issues that will determine their vote, Labour leads the Conservatives by 27 points among voters who identify as such. health care among their three main issues (45% against 18%) and 18 points among those for whom the economy is a major issue (41% against 23%).

Among voters who identify immigration as one of their top three issues, Reform UK (30%) leads the Conservatives (28%) by two points. and the Labour Party (27%) by three points.

70% of respondents believe a Labour Party government will be the outcome of the July 4 general election, compared to only 16% who think the elections will result in a conservative government.

While a Labour victory is now widely expected, 44% say they would feel satisfied if the Labour Party won the general electionagainst 30% who would feel dissatisfied.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak gets net approval rating of -23%, up two points from his previous rating. Our latest poll found that 27% of respondents approve of his overall job performance (+1) versus 50% (-1) who disapprove.

Among 2019 Conservative voters, Sunak's approval rating now stands at +8%. up eight points from our previous poll, when his approval rating was at an all-time low (0%) among this group of voters.

42% (+3) of 2019 Conservative voters now approve of Rishi Sunaks' job performance, compared to 34% (-5) who disapprove.

Labour leader Keir Starmer's net approval rating rises to +9%down seven points from our previous poll. 41% approve of Starmers' job performance (-2), while 32% disapprove (+5).

Keir Starmer (48%, -1) leads Rishi Sunak (25%, ) by 23 points on who would be the best prime minister at this momentjust two points short of Starmer's biggest ever lead over Sunak on this issue last Monday.

As for who will be the next Prime Minister on Friday morning, A majority of 62% of respondents believe that Keir Starmer will to be Prime Minister after the next general electioncompared to just 17% who think Rishi Sunak will be Prime Minister after the election.

Given the size of Labour's lead in the polls, a sub-issue of this election has been who will (or should) lead the opposition in the next parliament.

In our latest survey, Nigel Farage (30%) continues to lead an unnamed next Conservative Party leader (28%) as to who would be the best opposition leaderwith Ed Davey in third place with 15%.

Rishi Sunak has suggested in recent days that even if the Conservatives lose the election, he might stay on as party leader rather than resign.

However, Nigel Farage (29%) also leads Sunak (26%) in the question of who would be the best leader of the opposition to a Labour government led by Starmer.if Sunak decides to stay.

Among 2019 Conservative voters, Sunak (39%) and Farage (38%) are virtually tied over who would be best placed to hold Keir Starmer to account as opposition leader.

Thinking about how they feel today compared to a few years ago, 46% of Britons say they now are worse than they were a few years agocompared to only 22% who say they are better off.

While a plurality of potential Conservative voters say they are better off (37%), a majority of likely Reform voters (60%) and a plurality of likely Labour (49%), Liberal Democrat (48%) and undecided (47%) voters say they are now worse.

Majorities of all major voter groups cite the cost of living crisis as one of the five triggering events in recent years that have had the greatest impact on how they will vote, while the majority of likely Labour, SNP and Liberal Democrat voters cite NHS waiting list grows as a key event in determining their vote.

53% of potential British reformist voters choose crossings in small boats as a key event in determining their vote.

Finally, when asked which events in the election campaign had the greatest impact on how Britons intend to vote, 45% of potential Conservative voters cited inflation falls to 2% among the three most significant events.

Likely Labour voters are most likely to cite Labour Party changes slogan (22%) and the Conservatives consider reintroducing national service (20%) as the recent events that most influenced how they will vote.

The return of Nigel Farage (43%) and the announcement that Net immigration to the UK in 2023 is 685,000 (42%) are the events most likely to be cited by Reform voters in the UK as determining their vote.