Supreme Court Gives New Boost to Donald Trump's White House Bid

It took Donald Trump all of 12 minutes Monday to respond to the Supreme Court's resounding decision granting him broad immunity from criminal prosecution for his actions as president.

“THIS IS A GREAT VICTORY FOR OUR CONSTITUTION AND OUR DEMOCRACY,” Trump said in a message posted on his Truth Social platform. “PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN! This decision should put an end to all of the witch hunts by dishonest Joe Biden against me,” he said.

The court's 6-3 decision, along partisan lines, was a major legal victory for the former president, but it was also a significant political victory, virtually eliminating any chance that the Republican candidate in this year's race for the White House would face another criminal trial before Election Day in November.

That puts Trump on the right track. A man federally indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 election is unlikely to face trial on that allegation before Americans vote in a 2024 rematch against Joe Biden, a race that polls suggest Trump is in pole position to win.

The Supreme Court's decision came just days after a presidential debate Thursday that was widely seen as a disaster for Biden, sparking chaos in his party and calls for his withdrawal from the contest in the days that followed.

Thursday, Friday and Monday were the three best days of Trump's campaign so far, said Republican Party member Ford O'Connell. Thursday night was a political earthquake. And what's happened since then has only given Trump more momentum.

The decision by the Supreme Court, which includes three justices appointed by Trump, marks a new turning point in this year’s presidential campaign. Six months ago, many Democrats and some Republicans believed that the series of legal troubles Trump was facing would compromise him in the eyes of American voters and destroy his ability to campaign during the weeks he would spend on trial. Now, he has a packed campaign schedule through November.

The former president already had a slight lead of about 1.4 points, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight polling average, despite his previous felony conviction in New York. Trump also remains ahead of Biden in polls of voters in key swing states that will decide the November election.

The Biden campaign on Monday circulated its own internal polling memo showing Trump with a two-point lead over the president in key battleground states, a margin that aides were keen to stress is unchanged since before Thursday's debate.

But the campaign has also sought to shift the focus away from Biden's debate debacle and back onto Trump, criticizing him for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election result and his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Trump is already running for president as a convicted felon for the same reason he stood by as the mob violently attacked the Capitol: He believes he is above the law and will do anything to gain and retain power, a senior Biden campaign adviser said.

Biden himself delivered a brief, hastily prepared statement at the White House Monday night accusing the Supreme Court of setting a dangerous precedent and doing the nation a grave disservice by making it highly unlikely that Trump will face another trial before Election Day.

The American people will now have to do what the court should have been willing to do but will not, the president added. The American people must render judgment on Donald Trump's behavior.

But Democrats privately acknowledged that by pushing any trial over Trump's role on Jan. 6 beyond the November election, the Supreme Court's decision marked a new low point for the Biden campaign.

The decision shields Trump from criminal prosecution for official acts he committed while president, leaving it to lower courts to define how those acts differ from his personal actions. The time-consuming process virtually guarantees that Trump will not face trial before the election.

The math is not only discouraging, but it rules out, in my view, any trial before November, said Daniel Richman, a professor at Columbia Law School.

If Trump wins the election and returns to power in 2025, he could also order the Justice Department to drop the case.

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Meanwhile, even though Trump will be sentenced next week for his guilty verdict in last month's “bribe” trial, making him the first former president to be convicted of a crime for the first time, he is unlikely to be incarcerated.

The high court's decision could also lengthen deadlines in other criminal cases in which Trump has claimed immunity.

A second federal indictment accusing Trump of mishandling classified information focuses primarily on actions he took after leaving the White House. But Richman argued that Trump’s lawyers could rely on the concurring opinion filed in Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ immunity decision to challenge the documents case as well.

The judge presiding over the case has already postponed the trial indefinitely due to a backlog of legal battles prior to the trial.

Thomas said the Justice Department's appointment of a special prosecutor, who is overseeing Trump's two federal indictments, raises serious concerns. [constitutional] questions that needed to be answered before the election interference case could proceed, an argument also made by the former president's lawyers in the documents case.

As for the Georgia case accusing Trump of election interference, Richman said the Supreme Court's analysis of the president's constitutional powers should be applied to that case as well, even though the proceedings are at the state level.

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That case is also on hold, awaiting an appeals court decision on whether to disqualify Fani Willis, the district attorney overseeing the indictment, because of a romantic relationship she had with an outside lawyer hired by her office.

All in all, in other words, the array of legal problems that Trump faced a few months ago suddenly seem a lot less daunting and a lot less threatening to his reelection bid.

As for public opinion, Republicans insist that the impact of the Supreme Court's immunity decision pales in comparison to the boost Trump got from Biden's debate disaster.

Bryan Lanza, a managing director at Mercury Public Affairs who worked on Trump's 2016 campaign and his White House transition team, said the debate will dominate the conversation for some time.

Nothing will be more beneficial to Donald Trump’s campaign than Joe Biden’s performance in Thursday’s debate… everything after that is almost insignificant, Lanza said. People are throwing away expired milk. What voters saw Thursday is that Joe Biden’s presidency has been wasted.

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