Kaesang Champion, There Is Jokowi's Influence

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) has released the results of a survey regarding the eligibility of candidates for governor of Central Java. The general chairman of the Indonesian Solidarity Party, who is also the youngest child of President Joko Widodo, namely Kaesang Pangarep, is the tallest among other names.

LSI Executive Director Djayadi Hanan said there was a factor in satisfaction with Jokowi's performance behind Kaesang's superiority. Initially, Djayadi said 23.7 percent of voters said they were very satisfied and 61.3 percent of voters were somewhat satisfied with Jokowi's performance.

Djayadi then explained the relationship between satisfaction with Jokowi's performance and voter support in the regional elections. Djayadi said that voters in Central Java who expressed satisfaction with Jokowi's performance tended to support Kaesang more. Then followed by Ahmad Luthfi and Taj Yasin Maimoen.

“So, the reason why Kaesang tends to be superior to others is, among other things, because voters in Central Java who are satisfied with Jokowi’s performance support Kaesang more than others,” Djayadi said in the statement “Pilkada in Key Regions: Who is Superior in Central Java” via zoom meeting, Sunday (30/6/2024).

“If people ask why Kaesang is the most superior right now? Besides his greater popularity, it is also because of Jokowi's influence there. People who are satisfied with the president tend to support Kaesang more,” he continued.

As for the simulation of gubernatorial candidates, the majority of voters have not yet made a choice. This was demonstrated by 78.7 percent of respondents who answered don't know/no answer/secret.

Meanwhile, Luthfi was chosen the most with 5.2 percent, then Kaesang Pangarep 2.5 percent, Sudaryono 2.1 percent, Bambang Wuryanto (Pacul) 1.8 percent, Dico Ganinduto 1.7 percent and Taj Yasin 1.5 percent, Ganjar Pranowo 1 percent and others below 1 percent.

After that, LSI conducted a semi-open simulation by presenting 21 names of potential gubernatorial candidates circulating in the media and the public. In this simulation, Kaesang ranks first with 15.9 percent. This is followed by Luthfi 12.9 percent, Abdul Wachid 7.8 percent and Raffi Ahmad 6.8 percent.

Then, Pacul 5.8 percent, Sudaryono 4.7 percent, Hendar Prihadi 4.7 percent, Dico 3.5 percent, Achmad Husein 3.4 percent, Taj Yasin 2.7 percent, don't know/don't answer/secret 19.5 percent.

Kaesang was also recorded as always being in first place in the 6-name simulation. In the 6-name simulation, Kaesang got 25.6 percent, Luthfi 16.1 percent, Taj Yasin 13.4 percent, Pacul 9.7 percent, Abdul Wachid 6.2 percent and Sudaryono 6 percent, and don't know/do not answer 22.9 percent.

On this occasion, Djayadi also said that if Kaesang does not run in the Central Java regional elections, voters who express satisfaction with the president's performance will tend to support Lutfhi more.

“But if there is Ahmad Lutfi, there is also Kaesang, at the moment we can say that Ahmad Lutfi and Kaesang Pangarep are fighting here for Jokowi's influence,” Djayadi said.

“Of course, we don't know whether, for example, the president will openly declare who he supports the most or who will run later. Is it true that Ahmad Lutfi and Kaesang will run or not, and so on,” he continued.

Meanwhile, Djayadi believes that the political map of the Central Java regional elections is still fluid even though names have emerged. He said that among the names, there is no dominant winner.

The survey was conducted between June 21 and 26, 2024. The target population of this survey is Indonesian citizens in Central Java Province who are 17 years of age and older or married and have a telephone/mobile phone. This survey survey uses the telephone method.

This survey included 1,200 respondents selected using a double sampling method. This method involves random sampling from a dataset resulting from a previously conducted face-to-face survey. The survey's margin of error is estimated at 2.8 percent at a 95 percent confidence level, assuming simple random sampling.

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