What Does Trump's Winning Streak Mean?

Everything currently seems to be going former President Donald Trump's way.

President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in last week’s debate gave Trump and second-tier Republicans a major boost. Trump’s fundraising is strong, eroding Biden’s huge financial advantage.

On Monday, the Supreme Court gave Trump a lifeline in his legal troubles by ruling on presidential immunity for official actions, ensuring that he will not face federal criminal prosecution until after the election. Trump quickly used that same Supreme Court decision to try to overturn his felony convictions in the New York bribery case. In commenting on the decision Monday night, Biden did not answer a single question.

This morning, we wanted to explore the ramifications of Trump cementing his status as the frontrunner in the presidential race. In Washington, discussions among political consultants, lawmakers and K Street stalwarts are already turning to the possibility that Republicans will control all of Washington next year.

It should be noted that the race is extremely tight at the moment, even though polls show Trump with a small but definite lead in key states. Biden has a lot of money and a huge campaign infrastructure. The Biden campaign announced it raised $264 million in the second quarter and has $240 million available.

And Trump is Trump. He motivates Democrats and his own base to go out and vote. He is free to do or say whatever he wants. Besides, there is still a long way to go.

With all these qualifications, here are some dynamics to watch.

The House of Representatives is becoming the priority. We are hearing a lot of talk in Democratic circles that suggests that a lot of donor money could be shifted to the House of Representatives races. Democrats only need five seats to secure a majority.

The idea here is that with the Senate all but certain to be defeated and confidence in Biden waning, the House may end up being the only thing Democrats can win. Some Democrats now see a House majority as their only chance to prevent a Republican three-peat.

That would ensure Democrats have, at least, a seat at the table for next year's legislative battles, from the debt limit to government spending to the expiration of Trump-era tax cuts.

Corporate money and big donors. The Biden campaign reported a surge in donations after Thursday's debate.

But if you’re a wealthy donor or a corporate executive in the background, it’s hard to bet on Biden right now. We’ve already heard from CEOs and prominent figures in the American business world, as well as major non-American companies and foreign governments, trying to make inroads with Trump or his top aides, either through Republicans in Congress or through people close to Trump.

Good luck to Democratic senators in Republican states. Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) already face the daunting task of outperforming Biden in their states by massive margins if they want to be reelected.

The fallout from Biden’s debate performance makes the task even more difficult, especially as GOP campaigns relentlessly seek to tie Democratic incumbents to the president. We learned Monday that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is in Cincinnati for Brown.

It will also impact Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin), and Bob Casey (D-Pa.), as well as the eventual Democratic nominee in Michigan. But Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are must-win states for Biden. If Biden doesn’t win at least two of those states, he can’t win, especially if Trump wins Georgia, Nevada, and possibly Arizona.

What is happening in Ukraine? Far-right political forces are on the rise across Europe. Just look at Sunday’s elections in France and the European Union parliamentary elections a few weeks earlier. Add to that a Trump presidency and we could see a significant fracture in the Western coalition supporting Ukraine.

The massive foreign aid package approved by Congress earlier this year is only scheduled to last through early 2025, so there will undoubtedly be a request for additional military aid late this year or early next.

As noted above, a Democratic-controlled House would give the party a seat at the table on any new funding for Ukraine. Most Senate Republicans will also push for it. But none of that will matter if the newly inaugurated Trump refuses to follow suit.

Government funding. Government funding expires on September 30, and lawmakers will have to pass an extension resolution to avoid a shutdown. This is standard procedure in an election year.

In the absence of a deal on spending for fiscal year 2025, the House has already begun advancing Republican-drafted appropriations bills. Those bills won’t make it to the Senate, and the White House is already threatening to veto them. But there’s another issue at stake.

A number of hardline Republican conservatives are urging their leaders to make no deal on government funding. They want to wait until Trump takes office in January so he can cut spending in all areas except defense, border security and veterans affairs. House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) don’t like the idea. They note that this approach didn’t work for Trump and Republicans in 2017.

But that chorus will only grow louder on the right if Trump's victory seems more likely.

Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

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