Trump builds summer momentum with court wins, post-debate gains

In presidential politics, fluctuations are rapid.

Just ask Donald Trump.

In less than a week, Trump’s legal troubles have been dramatically downplayed for now by the courts, his once-daunting campaign cash deficit has all but disappeared, and President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance has not only widened Trump’s lead in some opinion polls but also put Biden, 81, at odds with many in his own party who believe he is not up to the task of running again.

South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick said Big Mo is clearly on Trump's side, using a slang term for “momentum” that he believes he's gained over the past week. From national polls to most key state polls, and he's setting fundraising records, it's been a tremendous few weeks.

The politics of the race can perhaps now be seen as a split screen, with everything that happened before last week's Atlanta debate on one side and everything that happened after on the other.

By late May, Trump had become the first former president to be convicted of a felony, and for much of the year he lagged behind Biden and Democrats in fundraising. And even after his conviction, there were concerns that future legal troubles would continue to plague his campaign throughout the 2024 election cycle.

Things began to change when he used his beliefs to raise significant funds, and then his opponent delivered a disastrous debate performance.

The latest blow to Trump came this week when the U.S. Supreme Court handed him a victory, ruling that essential presidential functions are immune from prosecution, a decision that could hamper the prosecution he still faces. As a result of that decision, the judge in the New York bribe case delayed his sentencing Tuesday after the jury found him guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records related to bribe payments to a porn star before the 2016 election.

Biden’s sentencing was originally scheduled for next week, but it now won’t happen until at least September, a delay that allows Trump to avoid having the gravity of his crime seared into voters’ minds by a conviction. And it extends Biden’s bad news cycle as Trump heads to the Republican National Convention in less than two weeks.

Biden’s campaign and top spokespeople have acknowledged that Biden’s debate performance was not good, but in a series of phone calls they have tried to allay fears among supporters and donors that it was a one-off bad showing. Not only is Biden up to the task of beating Trump, they argue, he is the only one who can do it in an election cycle centered on Trump’s existential threat to democracy.

The state and stakes of the race remain the same, said James Singer, a spokesman for the Biden campaign. America has a choice between a Donald Trump, convicted 34 times for his actions, who only thinks of himself, who wants to destroy our democracy, take away our rights and portray himself as a dictator with immunity from the Supreme Court. And a Joe Biden, a president who fights for our families, who defends our democracy, who fights for our rights and who delivers real results for the American people.

Still, on Tuesday, Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas became the first Democrat in Congress to call on Biden to drop out of the race, and Democratic governors have been meeting to discuss the party’s path forward. Biden is holding a video call with some governors on Wednesday to address growing concerns.

A series of opinion polls conducted after the debates constitute a kind of political Rorschach test.

As evidence that the past week hasn’t changed the fundamentals of the race, Biden supporters point to surveys like a CNN poll that found just 5% of registered voters said the debate changed their minds, a separate FiveThirtyEight poll that found the debate didn’t change many voters’ minds about either candidate, and a Reuters poll that found the race tied 40% to 40%. (NBC News has not independently verified the polls.)

Conversely, nearly all post-debate polls found Trump outperforming Biden, and others show that Biden's debate gaffes reinforced the perception that he is too old to be commander and leader and that Vice President Kamala Harris is now polling better than Biden against Trump.

Republicans are also hoping that at least one state that was not considered in play recently is now winnable for Trump: New Hampshire.

“I now firmly believe that Donald Trump is going to win New Hampshire,” said Chris Ager, the state party chairman. “Until last week, I was optimistic, but I thought it was going to be a very tough road.”

New Hampshire is the perfect example of how the last five days have shifted the tide in Trump's favor.

No Republican has won the state since George H.W. Bush in 2000, and Biden won by more than 7 points. But polls released after the debate only show Biden leading the state by 2 points, although such polls taken immediately after a major event can sometimes fail to fully account for the fallout from the event.

After the debate, Republicans who may not have been on Trump's side here are now on Trump's side and saying, 'There's no way that's Biden,'” Ager said. That's strengthened his base here.

Some Biden supporters see last week as a potential short-term drag on his campaign, but that in the long run it will intensify his political base and bring them to the polls.

Here’s why I think it’s been a good thing for Joe Biden, said John Morgan, a Florida-based attorney and major Democratic donor. Now they’ve all had the rug pulled out from under them. [Trump] They may never go to jail. Some of them are furious about it. You know what they're going to do? They're going to vote.

Morgan, who is planning a fundraiser for Biden at his Florida home, said the hush-money trial doesn't matter because it was a sham from the start, but he said things like the Supreme Court's immunity decision Monday can stir up intensity.

“I think the anger and frustration will boil over. People will ask, ‘Why is he king? Why is he above the law?’” Morgan said. “That anger will manifest itself in a sense of revenge and help tip the scales in Biden’s favor.

The immunity decision is just the latest political victory for Trump in recent days, but it has raised serious concerns among Democrats and Republicans who do not support Trump, who fear that it could ultimately give him near-limitless power in a second term and signal a fundamental shift in what the rule of law has long meant.

No one, no one is above the law, not even the president of the United States, Biden said Monday night at the White House, addressing the immunity decision.

The decision, however, resulted in further legal victories for Trump. Without the ruling in his favor, Trump's lawyers would not have sought a postponement of sentencing in his New York trial.

Trump's sentencing delay may now remind voters that the trial will take place much sooner than Election Day. But after the judge granted the delay, Trump, as expected, took a victory lap.

TOTAL EXONERATION!, he wrote on Truth Social Tuesday afternoon, exaggerating the legal impact of the ruling and the delays in sentencing. It is clear that the Supreme Court’s brilliantly written and historic decision ends all of the witch hunts by dishonest Joe Biden against me, including the civil hoaxes inspired by the White House and the Justice Department in New York.

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