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Is Joe Biden the Democrats' worst option to beat Trump?

 


President Joe Biden has an electability problem. To counter a reality that has been evident for months but highlighted by a disappointing performance in last week’s debate, his campaign on Monday touted a poll that found eight other Democrats would lose to former President Donald Trump by similar margins to the incumbent.

The Biden team would have you believe that the poll shows he has the best chance of beating Trump. Yet if the poll is supposed to answer the question of which Democrat would do best against Trump, the answer is, obviously, almost anyone else.

The Data for Progress poll, released after the debate, tested the prospects of eight Democrats who have been floated as possible alternatives to Biden, including Vice President Kamala Harris and several Democratic governors. Biden’s self-proclaimed advantage is tempered by the lack of awareness of the other options so far. Aside from Harris, potential voters were so unfamiliar with these Democratic leaders that between 39 and 71 percent of respondents said they hadn’t heard enough about them to form an opinion. Even so, each potential candidate performed the same or better than Biden.

For example, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is down 2 points to Trump, compared to 3 points for Biden, despite the fact that 56% of voters don’t know her well enough to share a particular opinion. Others, like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, are like Biden, 3 points behind Trump, despite being less well-known. Harris got the same result as Biden.

NEW POST-DEBTY POLL: In a new poll, 45% of likely voters choose Biden and 48% choose Trump in a head-to-head matchup.

However, there is no clear advantage among alternative candidates who could replace Biden as the Democratic nominee.https://t.co/o0lW7DVJ4D pic.twitter.com/cY4OAqN4rm

— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) June 29, 2024

The poll results are not the result of intense campaigning by politicians, and can therefore be interpreted as a reflection of thresholds rather than ceilings for each of the Democratic candidates. Given voters’ general dissatisfaction with the choice between Trump and Biden, the poll suggests that voters could easily fall back on someone else.

A Reuters poll in January found that about half of Democrats and 75% of independents thought Biden should not run for president again; it also found that 31% of Republicans and 63% of independents thought Trump should not run again. A NewsNation poll around the same time found that 59% of Americans would not be enthusiastic about a Biden-Trump rematch. The trend has continued in recent polls: A USA Today poll after the debate found that 41% of Democrats and 64% of independents wanted Biden replaced, while 63% of independents wanted Trump replaced. A CBS poll also found that nearly half of Democrats want Biden to step down.

The poll reflects floors, rather than ceilings, for alternative Democrats.

The day after the debate, a CNN poll found that 75% of voters thought Democrats would have a better chance of winning the election with someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket. It suggested that Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were all doing slightly better than the president, with Harris coming in within Trump’s margin of error. (Harris’s average net approval rating is also 9 points higher than Biden’s.)

The poll suggests that a significant number of Democrats, independents, and even disenchanted Republicans could be enthusiastic about an alternative, while those who still support Biden are just as likely to support any Democratic alternative to Trump. A Democratic presidential campaign that loses supporters could instead gain momentum.

Biden carries baggage that no other Democrat could possibly inherit. Aside from a five-day stretch, Biden has trailed Trump in national polls for most of the campaign. Trump’s margin widened further after last week’s debate. Biden has underperformed the Democratic Senate candidates in several states, including ones he will need to win in 2024, such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and even Ohio. Post-debate polls show Biden sinking in those states and even bringing others like New Hampshire and New Mexico into play. His approval rating is about the lowest he has ever been in office, with a negative 19.

And it’s not just about polls. Biden has faced a historic protest campaign in the form of the Uncommitted movement, which has garnered hundreds of thousands of votes across the country, including in key states, expressing discontent with Biden’s near-unconditional support for Israel’s war on Gaza. His handling of the war has also spawned a historic movement of protests across the country, on campuses and in communities, that could continue into the fall.

As concerns about his age and mental health weigh on his campaign, one fact is worth acknowledging: Biden is not getting any younger.

Efforts to challenge Biden earlier in the cycle failed to take off in part because the political establishment had coalesced around Biden. But even as Biden advisers try to allay concerns, the list of people who have expressed concern about Biden’s performance or suggested he step aside to maximize his chances of beating Trump has only grown longer. They range from Never Trump Republicans Bill Kristol and Sarah Longwell and the hosts of the show “Pod Save America,” led by former Obama staffer, to Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Rep. Gabe Amo, the editorial boards of the Chicago Tribune, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the New York Times, to former Obama Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julin Castro and several Democratic members of Congress and committee leaders nationwide, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

On Tuesday, Rep. Lloyd Doggett became the first sitting Democratic member of Congress to call on Biden to step down.

So far, potential alternative candidates have remained silent and reiterated their support for Biden. Whitmer reportedly called a senior Biden campaign official to tell him she hated being touted as a potential replacement, while expressing concern about how difficult Biden’s campaign would now be. She later issued a statement affirming her 100% support for Biden’s fight against Trump.

Newsom, who one California columnist described as a man waiting in the wings, maintained his tone as a staunch defender of Biden even as he was mobbed by reporters after the debate. On Thursday night, he expressed disgust with Trump’s performance in the debate and pride in Biden on substance.

If the president is supposed to be a messenger of the larger governance structure he represents, Biden, as his debate performance shows, falls short. While Trump spouted lies and racist remarks like a clockwork, Biden fumbled not only to respond to those comments but even to maintain a consistent positive message. If the president is supposed to actively craft and execute reactive policy, one need only regard Biden’s remarkable intransigence in supporting Israel’s war or his timidity in the face of an unchecked and unaccountable Supreme Court as signs of a political and electoral liability. If the role of a president is a combination of the two, Biden’s recent record seems all the worse.

Despite their hesitation to step up, alternative candidates have the opportunity to distance themselves not only from Trump, but also from Biden’s inability to do so. And in a race where the American public is disenchanted not only with Biden, but also with Trump, the question is whether other Democrats have a better chance than the incumbent against someone who is expected to be one of the easiest candidates to beat in presidential election history.

After all, Trump is now the first former president to be convicted of a felony, and he still faces several other criminal charges. He appointed three of the Supreme Court justices who not only helped overturn decades-old abortion rights but recently freed American businesses from regulation and ruled that homeless people can be considered criminals for sleeping outside, while presidents who commit felonies can be immune from prosecution for almost any misdeed. He is the face of a movement that sought to overturn an election, that pursued book bans, mass deportations, and attacks on people’s ability to love whomever they want.

In 2020, Biden had the advantage of challenging a historically unpopular president and mustering the energy of the volunteers to do so, and yet he won narrowly. If he takes seriously his own warnings about the dangers that Trump’s resurgence could unleash, he will act accordingly. By all measures, he is faring far worse in 2024 than he did four years ago, while those same factors suggest that almost any leading Democratic alternative could do better.

Sources

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2/ https://theintercept.com/2024/07/02/biden-polls-democrats-alternative-candidates/

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