Xi Jinping-Putin-led club adds ally to confront US

A club of Eurasian countries led by China and Russia to advance their leaders’ vision of an alternative world order is set to expand again this week — this time by adding a staunch Russian ally that has openly supported Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Belarus' expected admission to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at its annual leaders' summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, is a new attempt by Beijing and Moscow to transform the group from a regional security bloc into a geopolitical counterweight to Western institutions led by the United States and its allies.

Belarus, which helped Russia launch its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, will become the latest authoritarian state to join the club, after Iran became a full member last year.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana for the summit that began on Wednesday (3), their second meeting this year. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leader of the world's largest democracy, did not attend the event, underscoring unease among some members about the direction the SCO is taking.

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to combat terrorism and promote border security, the SCO has grown in recent years in line with Beijing and Moscow's shared ambition to counter what they see as US hegemony and reshape the international system in its favor.

In 2017, the bloc underwent its first expansion to welcome India and Pakistan. With the addition of Belarus, it will have 10 members, representing more than 40% of the world's population and about a quarter of the global economy. The organization also has two observer states, Afghanistan and Mongolia, and more than a dozen dialogue partners ranging from Myanmar to Turkey and Arab states.

The SCO's expansion comes after another bloc led by China and Russia, the BRICS group of major emerging economies, more than doubled its membership and significantly expanded its global reach last year.

Growing ambitions

As the SCO has gained international visibility and economic clout, it has also expanded its geopolitical ambitions.

The expected admission of Belarus, a country bordering the European Union, highlights how the SCO's mission has changed in recent years, said Eva Seiwert, a China foreign policy expert at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Berlin.

Unlike Iran, Belarus' entry does not really result in much economic or security cooperation. That is why I argue that this is another geopolitical move.

With Russia deeply embroiled in the third year of its grueling war with Ukraine, the SCO has become a crucial diplomatic channel for Putin, as well as a platform to show that he is not isolated on the international stage.

As relations between China and the United States have collapsed, Beijing is now less concerned about the SCO being labeled an anti-Western organization — a perception that has only deepened after Iran's admission, Seiwert said.

They want the SCO to be seen as a large bloc that can no longer be ignored, she said. With all these countries together, both China and Russia (who want to show it) have many supporters for their worldview.

And in this common worldview, there is no place for the United States in Eurasia. At a meeting with senior Foreign Ministry officials last month, Putin outlined a future vision of a new system of bilateral and multilateral collective security guarantees in Eurasia, with the help of existing organizations like the SCO, and a long-term goal of gradually eliminating the military presence of external powers in the Eurasian region.

During my recent visit to China, President Xi Jinping and I discussed this issue. It was noted that the Russian proposal is not contradictory, but rather comprehensive and is in line with the basic principles of China's global security initiative, Putin said, visiting Beijing in May.

Friction and discomfort

This grand vision of an alternative future will be the main message to China and Russia at this SCO summit, said Bates Gill, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research.

But Belarus' membership also creates big question marks that will weigh on the organization, Gill said.

This creates all sorts of problems and new questions about the reputation, legitimacy and mandate of the organization, given the nature of the Belarusian regime and its blatant support for Russia's violation of international law and invasion of Ukraine, he said.

Obviously, the SCO can tolerate authoritarian regimes, but for the organization's mandate, this further diversifies and dilutes its initial orientation, which was focused on Central Asia.

The bloc's expansion has not been without friction – notably the admission of bitter rivals India and Pakistan – while tensions between Beijing and New Delhi have also risen in recent years following deadly clashes on the disputed Himalayan border.

The group's increasingly anti-Western orientation following the admission of Iran and now Belarus has also fueled unease among members who want to maintain good relations with the West, including with former Soviet states in Central Asia.

In some ways, this puts the Central Asian states in a very uncomfortable position, Gill said. They are pursuing what they like to call multi-vector diplomacy. They don’t want to commit to dealing with just one major power, like Russia or China.

Gill, who visited Central Asia in April and May, said there was ambivalence in regional capitals about the future of the SCO.

Absent manners

India also seemed to be losing interest. Last year, the country hosted the summit virtually — a low-key arrangement that allowed Modi to avoid the ethics of hosting Putin and Xi in New Delhi while seeking closer ties with the United States.

This year, newly sworn in for his third consecutive term, the Indian leader is absent from the Astana summit – despite reports in Russian state media that he will visit the Kremlin next week.

This tells us that the SCO is not the most effective channel to defend Indian interests in this part of the world, Gill said.

Even China, the main force behind the SCO expansion, is seeking a more direct way to interact with Central Asia – without Russia's participation.

Last year, five regional leaders were lavishly welcomed at the inaugural China-Central Asia summit in the Chinese city of Xi'an, the starting point of the ancient Silk Road trade route that linked imperial China with Western civilizations. recently. In March, a permanent secretariat for the China-Central Asia mechanism was established in the same city.

And while China and Russia aspire to present the SCO as a counterweight to US-led institutions, it remains a much weaker and less cohesive bloc than NATO, the European Union or the Group of Seven.

Given the increased membership with India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus, the organization will look even less like a common alliance or committed group, and more like a strategic vision-type organization…representing a Eurasian identity, Gill said.

After the Astana summit, China is expected to take over the rotating chairmanship of the SCO for one year. Seiwert, the MERICS expert, said Beijing would try to find common ground among member states.

For China, it is important that the SCO does not fail, that it is seen as a success. I think they are also aware of all the difficulties associated with all these different expansions, she said.

If it continues to grow – if Russia and China continue to strive to expand – then I think its regional relevance will actually diminish.

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