Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will kick off a two-day summit in Kazakhstan from July 3, as the bloc is set to expand again.
But where does this club of mostly illiberal states fit in? Beijing and Moscow's broader plans?
Finding a perspective: The SCO is led by China and Russia, but also includes India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. This year's summit will see the admission of Belarus to the organization.
The SCO has thus experienced remarkable growth over its 23-year history. Since its creation in 2001, the bloc has evolved from a forum focused primarily on Central Asia to a Eurasian-wide organization with ever-greater ambitions.
Initially, the goal was to settle borders with its Western neighbors after the collapse of the Soviet Union and expand its influence, while assuaging Moscow's concerns. Over time, the stakes have shifted to counterterrorism, economic development and regional security.
But it is also increasingly a place where Beijing can show its growing clout in the region, a shift that continues as Xi Jinping Arrived early in the Kazakh capital, Astana, for a state visit, and will then do the same in Tajikistan after the summit.
The bloc has also begun to feature more prominently in joint statements by China and Russia, with the SCO becoming particularly present. screams during Xi and Putin No limits partnership summit in February 2022 and other meetings between the two leaders as they seek to cooperate more across the organization.
Beijing and Moscow: The changing dynamics between China and Russia have been a boon to the SCO.
After years of Russia using the bloc to dilute Chinese influence in the region and block Chinese initiatives like the SCO development bank and free trade zone, the Kremlin has decided to engage more closely with China.
This phenomenon began with Russia’s isolation from the West, which began in 2014, and has only deepened since the invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has also begun to accept that it has fewer means to push back against China and that the SCO can serve as a valuable forum to build support and counter Western claims that the war in Ukraine has made the country an international pariah.
Why is this important: As the SCO has grown, its real value lies in symbolism rather than practical policy.
On paper, it is one of the largest regional organizations in the world, representing about a third of global GDP, about 40% of the world's population and almost two-thirds of the entire Eurasian territory.
Although China has experimented with multiple iterations of the SCO, its primary role has been to offer alternatives to the US-led system and to be another forum for Beijing to present itself as the leader of the Global South.
China still has a lot of work to do if it wants to transform the SCO beyond its reputation as a talking shop for authoritarians. The rivalry between India and Pakistan will always be a stumbling block for the organization, but recently it has been the strained relations between Beijing and New Delhi that have played a role.
Last year, the SCO summit in India went virtual, apparently due to a reluctance to host Xi, and at this year's summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the only leader not attending in person.
Three more stories from Eurasia
- NATO keeps eye on Asia-Pacific region
Russia's war in Ukraine is NATO's main concern, but when the military alliance's leaders meet in Washington July 9-11, they will also turn their attention to China.
The details: NATO officials told RFE/RL that the upcoming summit will feature a special session on China, and that the military alliance is seeking to include Asia-Pacific partners such as Japan, South Korea and Australia, all of which have been invited at the highest level.
While NATO is a defensive alliance focused on European security, China has become more concentration during the last years.
Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned in the past of the risks posed by Chinese state-owned companies building critical infrastructure in Europe and said in June that Beijing would face consequences for supplying Russia with dual-use goods in its war effort.
- Is Central Europe back on the menu?
After years of setbacks that saw the three Baltic states withdraw from China's forum for dialogue with Central and Eastern Europe and others downgrade it, Beijing is launching a charm offensive that could tip the balance the other way.
What this means: Polish President Andrzej Duda recently completed a visit to China, where he praised ties with Beijing and was praised by Chinese media for his warm attitude.
Hungary is and remains a key partner of China in the region and has recently taken control of the rotating presidency of the EU Council for the rest of 2024 amid trade tensions between Beijing and Brussels.
In Slovakia, the country's populist, eurosceptic government also appears to be flirting with the idea of stepping up its engagement in the 14+1, the Chinese forum that was previously the 17+1 before Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania withdrew.
Matej Simalcik, Executive Director of the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, said Jiang Yu, China's special envoy for the 14+1, recently met with Slovak officials in Beijing. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is also present. foreseen visiting China this fall.
Duda’s term is coming to an end, and Poland elected Donald Tusk, who has a more critical stance on China, as its prime minister last December. Duda also used his visit to try to stoke divisions between Beijing and Moscow in a speech to Chinese university students, citing how territories along their shared border were lost to Russia during the tsarist era.
The Czech Republic continues to have a government and a president who do not hesitate to criticize Beijing, but a change of government in the near future is not excluded.
With former populist Prime Minister Andrej Babis doing well in the polls, Czechs could also start to backtrack on some of their hardest positions if the ruling coalition fails to survive the next election.
- The return of a megaproject
While China has been the main source of foreign direct investment in Central Asia in recent years, Beijing has taken a back seat when it comes to building large infrastructure projects.
But with the much-discussed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project getting the green light, that could well be about to change.
What you want to know: My colleague Chris Rickleton, based in Almaty look at in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the two poorest countries in Central Asia, and recent projects and major contracts signed with Chinese companies and lenders.
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway agreement is important because it provides revealing details about the division of financial responsibilities.
Under the agreement, the trio will form a joint venture in which China will hold a 51 percent stake while Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan will each be responsible for 24.5 percent.
But the question of financing remains unclear. Official Kyrgyz estimates of the railway’s cost range from $4.5 billion to $8 billion. That will likely require significant loans from a major Chinese state bank. The deal proposes using a structure in which Kyrgyzstan could limit its debt exposure by giving full control of its share to a Chinese company and forgoing some of the railway’s revenue from freight charges until construction costs are repaid.
In Tajikistan, Chinese investors pledged $500 million in new contracts at an expo in June, as well as a $1.5 billion commitment from a Chinese company to build a solar power plant near Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan.
The deals could prove crucial for Tajikistan's investment-starved economy, but the country is already heavily indebted to China and has few resources to repay it.
Across the supercontinent
The EV extension: The first batch of plug-in hybrid vehicles rolled The assembly line at a new plant for Chinese automaker BYD in Uzbekistan. The Central Asian country is keen to position itself as the main production hub for Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) as the carmaker looks to expand in the region.
Modi in Moscow: Concerned about deepening ties between Russia and China, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to travel to Moscow for talks with President Vladimir Putin, Bloomberg reports.
Rare Earth Edit: Chinese State Council issued a series of regulations aimed at strengthening the management of rare earths, which play an increasingly strategic role in the global technological race.
Indirect trade: While much of China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine is bilateral, a growing share is being diverted to Central Asia and other regions. Joseph Webster of The Atlantic Councils explains the situation here.
One thing to watch out for
Nicholas Burns, Washington's ambassador to Beijing, gave a meeting to the Wall Street Journal, where he criticized Chinese officials for undermining attempts to restore ties with the United States, interrogating and intimidating Chinese citizens who attend U.S.-sponsored events in China, and stirring up anti-American sentiment.
The comments reflect unusually forceful language from Burns and reflect ongoing frustration with the lack of progress in attempts to improve relations between Beijing and Washington.
By RFE/RL
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