Donald Trump stung by three polls released after debate

Donald Trump has been hit by the release of three polls since his June 27 debate against Joe Biden showing a deterioration in his performance against the Democratic incumbent – ​​although only one was conducted in full after the debate.

During last Thursday’s debate, hosted by CNN in Atlanta, Biden, 81, appeared to lose his train of thought several times, raising new concerns about his age and mental agility. According to CNN’s chief national correspondent John King, Biden’s performance sparked “a very aggressive panic” within the Democratic Party.

In the aftermath of the debate, the odds on Biden being the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election increased by nearly 30% on one betting site, while the odds on Vice President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 presidential election fell sharply at a number of bookmakers.

On July 1 and 2, Ipsos surveyed 1,070 registered voters in the United States for Reuters. Biden and Trump each won 40% of the vote. That’s an improvement on Biden’s performance from the last Ipsos/Reuters poll, which had Trump leading with 41% to the incumbent’s 39%. That poll was conducted on June 12 among 930 registered voters.

The poll also found that former first lady Michelle Obama would decisively beat Trump with 50% of the vote to the former president's 39%, even though she has already ruled out running and endorsed Biden.

Republican presidential candidate former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at Greenbrier Farms on June 28, 2024 in Chesapeake, Virginia. Trump's performance against Biden has declined in three polls released since the two men's first debate on June 27. More Anna Moneymaker/GETTY

The latest TIPP Insights poll, conducted June 26-28 and released Tuesday, had Biden ahead of Trump with 43% of the vote to 41%, with the other candidates getting an additional 9%. That’s an improvement over the previous TIPP Insights poll released in June, which had the president tied with his Republican opponent with 41% each, plus 10% for the other candidates.

Because of the Electoral College system, Biden could win the most total votes but still lose to Trump, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

Also released Tuesday was a new poll from the Bullfinch Group, the first to put Biden ahead of Trump in the key swing state of Pennsylvania since early March. The poll of 800 registered voters in Pennsylvania, conducted ahead of the June 14-19 debate, gave Biden 45% of the vote to Trump's 44%.

Newsweek reached out to representatives from the Joe Biden and Donald Trump presidential campaigns for comment via email Wednesday outside of regular business hours.

However, not all recent polls have been so favorable to Biden. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll of 1,070 registered voters conducted between June 28 and July 1 put Trump ahead of Biden, 45% to 43%. It also found that 60% of Americans do not think Biden is “fit to serve another term,” compared to just 24% who do.

That's an improvement over Trump's showing, according to a YouGov/CBS News poll of 1,878 likely voters conducted June 17-21, which put the Republican at 50 percent of the vote compared to Biden's 49 percent.

Uncommon knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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