What happens if Biden or Trump leaves their party ticket?

This fact check was originally published on PolitiFact.

President Joe Biden's debate performance, which was widely criticized, including by some Democrats, has led some in his party to worry about whether the 81-year-old can defeat the expected Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, in November.

READ MORE: Debate watchers from both the Biden and Trump camps seem to agree on one thing: Biden had a bad night

Meanwhile, while Trump's status as the presumptive nominee remains strong within his party, his impending conviction on 34 counts and his age of 78 have raised similar questions among critics.

What would happen if one of the candidates, for one reason or another, was unable to run as a candidate?

In an updated version of an article we published in February, we'll look at a preview of several scenarios.

What happens if the presumptive nominee withdraws his nomination before the convention begins?

Biden showed no intention of stepping down, either before or after the debate. At an event in Raleigh, North Carolina, the day after the debate, Biden told supporters, “When you get knocked down, you get back up!” And senior party figures, including former President Barack Obama, have expressed confidence in Biden as the party’s presumptive nominee.

Unless a broad group of party leaders publicly come out against Biden, the likelihood of a nomination change appears unlikely, despite panic in some Democratic circles, political experts said.

If that were to happen, it would all depend on the calendar, including the date of the party conventions. The Republicans will hold their convention in Milwaukee from July 15 to 18, the Democrats in Chicago from August 19 to 22.

Biden could voluntarily give up the nomination. While that’s theoretically possible, it’s much less likely because the delegate selection process means those who are ultimately selected are “pretty loyal” to Biden, said Josh Putnam, a political scientist who specializes in delegate selection rules and founder of the political consulting firm FHQ Strategies LLC.

To force Biden to drop the nomination, delegates would have to use a party rule that says they can “in good conscience” not support the candidate they represent.

In the event that Biden were to relinquish the nomination alone, the delegates awarded during the primary campaign would decide who will succeed him. Since those delegates are almost all devoted to him, any endorsement by Biden for a candidate would carry considerable weight, even though Biden’s delegates who are devoted to him could choose to reject his choice.

READ MORE: 3 key moments from the Biden-Trump debate on CNN

A natural choice for a Biden endorsement would be Vice President Kamala Harris. But at this point in the campaign, Harris would not automatically become the presidential nominee. Delegates would have to accept her, and Harris could face competition from other prominent Democrats, such as prominent governors or senators. (If Harris were chosen as the presidential nominee, a separate contest would have to be held to select the vice presidential nominee.)

If a runoff election were to be won for the presidential nomination, it would initially be decided among the 4,000 regular delegates. If a candidate won a majority, he or she would win the nomination. If a runoff election were held, another group of delegates, party leaders, and elected officials, called “superdelegates,” could step in and perhaps break the deadlock.

Since running mates cannot come from the same state, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, would face a hurdle if he were to share the ticket with Harris. Both are from California, and that poses a similar challenge in getting Electoral College votes as Sen. Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican, would if he were to be chosen as running mate for Trump, another Floridian.

The Republican process would be broadly similar to that of the Democrats, but given the strength of Trump's support within the party, the possibility that he would be forced to abandon his ticket is considered even more remote.

Regardless, any vacancy that leaves an unstable convention, rather than a carefully choreographed one as has been the norm in recent decades, could become a political spectacle for the ages, with furious behind-the-scenes lobbying for delegate support.

One of the unique things this year is that, given concerns about Ohio’s early ballot deadline, Democrats plan to formally nominate their candidate before the convention opens, rather than during the convention, where the roll call of state delegations is typically the highlight. While the details of this early nomination process are not finalized, it is expected to happen by August 7, less than six weeks after the June 27 debate.

What happens if the presumptive nominee is nominated at the convention but drops out of the presidential race before Election Day?

If Biden or Trump is endorsed as the nominee at their respective conventions but must leave office before Election Day on November 5, the rules of succession would be different.

First, if Biden were to die in office (or be forced to relinquish the presidency due to incapacity under the 25th Amendment), Harris would become the sitting president. Harris would also become president immediately if Biden were to resign as president altogether.

READ MORE: On campaign trail, Harris defends Biden as Democrats panic over his debate performance

What would the implications be for the presidential nomination? On the Democratic side, the rules would allow the Democratic National Committee to nominate a successor. While Harris would not be automatically nominated, that would be considered the most likely option, assuming she wants the nod.

If Harris were to be promoted to the presidential candidate, the same process would determine the new running mate. That’s what happened in 1972, when the Democratic National Committee nominated Sargent Shriver as its running mate after Missouri Sen. Thomas Eagleton dropped out following revelations about his mental health.

The Republican rules are more vague. A reconvening of the national convention is possible, but the Republican National Committee could probably find an alternative mechanism, Putnam said. Either way, “it wouldn’t be as clean a move as the Democratic side,” Putnam said.

What happens between the election of a president and his inauguration?

If a new president is elected but dies before his inauguration, the duly elected vice president would become the next president. The new vice president who would serve alongside the new president would have to be approved by both the Senate and the House of Representatives, as was the case when Congress approved Nelson Rockefeller's nomination after Gerald Ford succeeded Richard Nixon, who had resigned over the Watergate scandal.

There's still room for more madness. According to the Washington Post, if the winner dies between the time the electoral votes are cast and Congress counts them on January 6, 2025, it's unclear what will happen, even to the National Archives and Records Administration, whose job it is to know.

“We don't know what would happen” in this scenario, the agency says on its website.

PolitiFact writer Marta Campabadal Graus contributed to this report.

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