Trump Running Mate Rubio Could Attract Some Latino Voters, But That's Not a Surety

If Donald Trump chooses Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, the son of Cuban immigrants who speaks fluent Spanish, as his running mate, Rubio would make history as the first Latino vice presidential candidate and would also take the final step in his conversion from Trump antagonist to Trump loyalist.

The question behind the choice would be whether Rubio, the Cuban-American son of a bartender and a hotel maid, and his brilliant political rise can mobilize some Latino and other voters in favor of the Trump ticket.

Although Trump gained Latino votes in 2020 compared to 2016, he was still rejected by nearly two-thirds of Latino voters in his last presidential election. Polls suggest Trump has gained more Latino support this year.

Manuel Tapia, 54, an optician and Air Force veteran in Tucson, Arizona, who already plans to vote for Trump, said it means a lot to have a Latino on the ticket with Trump.

I think the community and the whole country will be in better hands. … They can combine their beliefs and their education and come together and do something better for everyone, not just one party, Tapia, who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, said of a Trump-Rubio ticket.

Rubio's ability to campaign fluently in both English and Spanish would be a major asset, said Giancarlo Sopo, a communications strategist who worked on Trump's Hispanic media strategy in 2020 but is not involved in this year's campaign.

Republicans are making big gains among English-speaking Latinos; where they tend to struggle more is with Hispanics whose primary news sources are Spanish-language media, Sopo said. Democrats have a 40 percentage-point advantage among Latinos who get their news in Spanish and a 13-point advantage among those who get their news in English, he said, citing a poll he conducted for Republican groups in October 2022.

Although Trump attracted new Latino voters in 2020, the GOP did not see similar gains among Latino voters in the midterm elections, said Bernard Fraga, a political science professor at Emory University and author of The Turnout Gap.

Rubio's presence on the ticket could attract Latinos who would otherwise stay home, Fraga said.

According to the Associated Press, more than half of Florida's Latino voters cast ballots for Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2022 midterm elections. In 2020, Trump received less than half (46%) of Florida's Latino votes.

The many new, young and unengaged Latino voters (36.2 million Hispanics are eligible to vote this year) give Rubio the opportunity to woo voters with his heritage and family history, his Christian faith and his expertise on foreign policy, taxes and other issues.

For Rubio, it’s about mobilizing Latino Republicans. He’s not going to convert many people, but he could generate even more enthusiasm and make it even easier for Republicans to convince Latinos that the party cares about them, Fraga said.

Sen. Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, in West Palm Beach, Fla., on June 14, 2024. Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Jason Villalba, president and CEO of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, who left the GOP and now calls himself an independent, said Rubio could temper the ticket for some Republicans.

If Rubio is on this ticket, that gives me comfort, because I know that even with the MAGA veneer that Rubio has to wear, he is certainly a thoughtful and articulate presence on this ticket that could resonate with some people, Villalba said.

Can Cultural Pride Trump Trump?

While Rubio's background may be a source of pride for some Latinos, that doesn't mean it would translate into votes.

Marcel Lopez, 20, a student at Arizona State University who is Mexican-American, said it's cool to have Latinos up there, you know, getting closer and closer to the presidential position. I mean, vice president is the closest you can get without actually being president.

But for him, Trump's felony conviction overshadows Rubio's presence on the ticket. It would be nice if Rubio were chosen, but will it affect my vote? Probably not.

Dina Ramirez-Crump, 50, a mammography technician in Tucson who is Mexican-American, said Rubio’s presence on the ticket wouldn’t change her mind about supporting President Joe Biden and likely wouldn’t change the minds of other Latino voters. She voted for Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

“He hasn’t stood his ground when it comes to representing the Latino community,” Ramirez-Crump said of Rubio. “He’s been very fickle with people. He’s voted one way and then changed his mind. All he cares about is serving his interests, serving his interests.”

Rubio’s shifts in position are under increased scrutiny now that he’s on the vice presidential ticket. He once said the media, voters and right-wingers would one day have to explain and justify how they fell into the trap of supporting Trump. But he has since dismissed his past criticisms as the product of campaigning.

Rubio was among the senators who voted to certify Biden’s election in 2020, despite Trump’s attempts to overturn the results and his persistent accusations of election theft. Recently, Rubio declined to say whether he would commit to accepting the results of the 2024 election, echoing Trump.

In a recent interview with Noticias Telemundo, Rubio said Trump's Hitler-like statement that immigrants poison the country's bloodstream was just a saying he uses, not a reflection of his views on race, a stark departure from when Rubio said Trump's infamous 2015 comments about Mexicans as criminals and rapists were divisive and offensive.

Jos Dante Parra is a Democratic strategist who oversaw Latino outreach for Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, helping secure Reid's reelection in 2010. He said a Hispanic last name on the GOP ticket would certainly help Republicans, but that he thinks it can be neutralized if [Democrats] show his true colors.

He must be defined as someone who has been without a backbone, as someone who will be with the community or against the community depending on which way the political winds blow for him, Parra said.

The most obvious example is his current stance on immigration, Parra said, adding that Rubio is now aligned with Trump after sponsoring the 2013 immigration bill, which would have doubled the number of Border Patrol agents and provided millions of people in the country illegally with a path to legal status.

Although Rubio once called Trump's mass deportation plans unrealistic, he recently told NBC News that he supports Trump's promise to carry out the largest mass deportation in American history and to use the military and local law enforcement to do it.

Republican Marlon Gonzalez, 34, a central Florida resident who campaigned for Trump in Orlando in 2020, said that while he believes Rubio has all the qualifications for the job, his vice presidential preference is for Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio because he doesn't trust Rubio to be loyal to Trump.

That's one of the things that worries me a little bit, Gonzalez said, that he might be seen as kind of a quitter when things aren't going well.

Victor Martinez, a radio host who owns several radio stations in Pennsylvania, said Rubio’s reach in the Latino community is limited outside of Florida. He also said that among some Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, who make up the majority of the state’s eligible Latino voters, there are mixed feelings: While Rubio has long supported Puerto Rico’s statehood, he also said several years ago that there wasn’t enough support in the Senate yet and that statehood could wait, which upset some statehood supporters.

This position does not help him, Martinez said.

But Democrat Michael La Rosa of Pennsylvania, who served as a special assistant to Biden and as press secretary to Jill Biden, wrote in a recent New York Times op-ed that Rubio is the Republican vice presidential pick he fears most because he would be able to tap into cultural pride and transcend ideological and partisan differences.

Tapia, the Tucson optician, said he thinks Rubio will help the Republican ticket.

I think when people realize that this gentleman is coming to help Trump, he said, it will make a huge difference.

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