Here's Who's Leading In Election Polls Between Trump And Biden

Top line

Former President Donald Trump widened his lead over President Joe Biden in two major polls taken following last week's debate, adding to a growing body of evidence suggesting Biden's performance could cost him another term.

Trump and Biden remain virtually tied as Trump's lead in early polls narrows

AFP via Getty Images Key facts

Trump leads Biden by six points in a new New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,532 voters nationwide conducted Friday through Tuesday, a three-point swing in Trump's favor from a poll conducted a week earlier and the largest Trump lead in any poll conducted by the groups since he launched his first presidential campaign in 2015.

More than half of Democrats (59%) say Biden is too old to be president, an eight-point increase since the debate, while 74% of voters overall and 79% of Republicans and independents say he is too old.

The share of Republicans who want Biden to stay in the race increased by three points after the debate, while the share of Democrats who want him to stay decreased by four points.

A Wall Street Journal poll of 1,500 registered voters conducted Saturday through Tuesday also found Biden trailing Trump by six points, the largest lead Trump has had over Biden in the Journal's polls since 2021 in a two-way contest, and a four-point increase in Trump's lead since February.

Biden's approval rating hit a record low of 34%, and the share of voters who said he was too old to run for president jumped seven points from February, with 76% of Democrats saying he was too old to be the nominee, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A CBS/YouGov poll conducted Friday through Tuesday in the seven swing states likely to determine the winner of the election found Trump leading Biden by three points, after trailing him by one point last month.

Heading into Thursday's debate, Trump was leading Biden by 1.5 points nationally, according to the RealClearPolitics poll, which now shows Trump with a 2.5-point lead.

The debate was widely seen as one of the most important nights for the candidates in the 2024 election cycle, particularly in a race where any shift in support could influence the outcome and 16% of voters said they were open to changing who they plan to vote for in November based on the candidates' performances, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

Peg News

Biden, in a call with his campaign team on Wednesday, vowed to stay in the race, telling them that I am in this race until the end. Biden appears to be in rescue mode after Democrats this week began publicly calling for him to drop out of the race or openly began planning a ticket without Biden. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, a Texas Democrat, on Tuesday became the first Democratic member of Congress to call on Biden to drop out of the race following Thursday’s debate, joining former Rep. Tim Ryan, a Ohio Democrat, and a chorus of pundits and major news organizations urging Democrats to replace Biden as the nominee. Some of Biden’s congressional allies, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., also left open the possibility in interviews Tuesday that Biden could drop out of the race, with Pelosi telling NBC that it was legitimate to question whether Biden’s performance in Thursday’s debate was an episode or a condition. Minutes into Thursday’s 90-minute debate, Biden lost his train of thought and spoke in a raspy and sometimes inaudibly low voice throughout the program, often giving answers that were hard to follow and having to correct himself multiple times.

What should you pay attention to?

Polls conducted before the debate consistently showed Trump leading Biden in all seven swing states, all of which Biden won except North Carolina in 2020. A Cook Political Report poll in May found Trump ahead by an average of three points in all seven states, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll in May found Trump ahead by four points overall in swing states, and a New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll in April found Trump would beat Biden in five of the six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada) except Wisconsin.

Surprising fact

In such a tight race, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to swing the issue with his independent candidacy, though it’s unclear in whose favor. A May Emerson poll found Trump widening his lead over Biden, from two points to five, with Kennedy Jr., independent Cornell West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix. Kennedy received 6 percent of support, while 10 percent of voters said they were undecided. A May Fox poll showed Trump’s lead widening by two points with all three independents on the ballot. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found Kennedy Jr. drawing votes from Biden’s core supporters. Kennedy has the support of just 10 percent of voters in six key states in a five-way contest, but support is rising to 18 percent among voters ages 18 to 29 and 14 percent among Hispanic voters. And a recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump’s five-point lead remains unchanged with Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Meanwhile, an April NBC poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points in a straight race, but beating him by two points with Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates on the ballot.

Tangent

Polls consistently suggest that Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole have lost support among key demographic groups, including Black, Latino, and young voters, who have largely supported the party in the past. A May NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that voters under 45 prefer Biden to Trump by just four points and that Biden leads Gen Z/millennials by six points in a head-to-head contest, but the vote swings toward Trump among both groups (by six points among Gen Z/millennials and eight points among voters under 45) with third-party candidates in the mix. The April Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also found that Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in six key states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada) and trails him by four points in those states among 18- to 29-year-olds, two groups that voted for Biden with more than 60% support in 2020, according to the Times. Biden also appears to be losing support in Democratic strongholds, such as New York, where he has a nine-point lead over Trump, according to a May Siena College poll, after beating Trump in that city by 23 points in 2020.

Key context

Biden and Trump are poised for a historic rematch after clinching their parties’ nominations in March, ending the primary season much earlier in the year than in previous elections. Polls show voter enthusiasm at historically low levels, as both candidates have relatively low approval ratings, below 45%. The NBC poll found that 64% of voters said they were very interested in this year’s election, the lowest level in 20 years. Trump has centered his campaign on his legal woes, accusing prosecutors and judges in his criminal cases of working at Biden’s behest to hurt his chances of winning the election, though there is no evidence to suggest that this is true. Biden, meanwhile, has cast Trump as a threat to democracy, citing his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, and has hammered Trump for his appointment of the Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. Polls show that the economy, immigration, abortion and inflation are consistently voters’ top concerns. The Times/Siena/Inquirer survey found that majorities trust Trump more than Biden to handle the economy, crime and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more than Trump on abortion.

Further reading

Here Are The Six Key States Trump Must Take From Biden To Win In November (Forbes)

Biden's Disturbing Post-Debate Polls: 66% of Voters Doubt Their Mental Health as Trump's Lead Grows (Forbes)

Biden's Support Suddenly Weakens: More Democrats Openly Want Him Out of the Race (Forbes)

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/03/biden-vs-trump-2024-election-polls-trumps-lead-reaches-record-high-in-2-prominent-surveys-as-more-voters-say-bidens-too-old/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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