Trump pulls lead over Biden nationally and across battlegrounds after debate, as Democrats' turnout questioned – CBS News Poll

The presidential race has swung in favor of Donald Trump after the first presidential debate of 2024. Trump now has a 3-point lead over President Biden in all key states and a 2-point lead nationally.

A big factor here is motivation, not just persuasion: Democrats are not as likely as Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now.

As befits a race between two well-known candidates and a highly partisan electorate, more than 90% of Biden and Trump supporters say they would never even consider the other candidate, as was the case before the debate, which explains why the race has remained relatively stable for months. Recall that Biden gained slightly in June, after Trump was convicted of felonies in New York, but that didn’t dramatically change the race either.

That said, today's preferential contest implies an Electoral College advantage in Trump's favor.

Meanwhile, half of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters don’t think he should run this year — and when they don’t, they’re less likely to say they’ll run in 2024, and also more likely to choose someone else, either Trump or a third-party candidate.

For his part, Trump believes that most Republicans feel empowered after the debate, saying it made them more likely to vote. And independents remain hotly contested, with Trump narrowly ahead of them.

Nationally, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely turn out in 2024. And Republicans currently enjoy a similar turnout advantage in key states, reinforcing Trump's advantage with likely voters in those states.

If Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are included in a national poll, Trump’s national lead over Mr. Biden widens to four points. Kennedy gets about the same number of votes as both candidates, but Mr. Biden gives up slightly more to Stein and West, lowering his overall percentage.

For many voters, the ages of both candidates are a factor, not just Mr. Biden’s. When people see an equivalence, Mr. Biden benefits: He leads Trump among those who say both.

The problem for Mr. Biden is that he lags behind those for whom only his age is a factor.

Immediately after the debate, a CBS News poll showed that a growing number of voters believed that Biden was cognitively unfit for the job and should not run. Seven in 10 still believe he should not run. (That’s down three percentage points now from immediately after the debate, perhaps because Biden’s campaign has pushed back on the idea, but it remains the dominant view among voters and among a sizable four in 10 Democrats.)

Mr. Biden has not gained ground on Trump on a number of personal qualities: Trump edges out Mr. Biden in being seen as competent, tough and focused. The president continues to be seen as more compassionate.

CBS News considers the battleground states most likely to decide the Electoral College election to be Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 2,826 registered voters surveyed between June 28 and July 2, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race and education level, based on the U.S. Census’ American Community Survey and American Population Survey, as well as past voting records. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 percentage points. The battlegrounds are AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.

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