Indian news channels predicted a landslide victory for Modi. How could they have been so wrong?

During the months of India's sprawling national election season, the country's hundreds of cable news channels all seemed to be trying to outdo each other: predicting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would win, and win handily.

The actual results of the June 4 election, however, saw his fortunes plummet to such an extent that he only secured a new mandate with the help of his coalition partners.

The result shocked many, and India is now wondering why so few anticipated the popularity of an opposition movement. Some media outlets had predicted that Mr Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win 400 of the 543 seats available in parliament, but it ended up winning only 240.

Many see this disparity as a sign of how the prime minister has intimidated the mainstream media and how his control of the information system has become so complete that the hype has obscured the true feelings of voters.

During Modi’s decade in power, a combination of pressure and incentives turned mainstream news channels into cheerleaders for his every move. They presented the powerful prime minister as an unstoppable leader, too overwhelming to be challenged by an opponent. There was no question of debating his policies, or even how he would deliver on his promises.

Many mainstream media journalists have adopted what Mr. Modi had normalized: taking pride in his vision of Hindu India. Those who have investigated the unsavory aspects of his tenure, including independent journalists, body who strongly criticized his policies were ostracized, attacked or forced to surrender.

When exit polls were released on election night, one channel even said Mr Modi's alliance had won 30 parliamentary seats in a state that had only 25. Another anchor appeared to ridicule his own channel's journalists for suggesting there had been discontent over economic tensions.

The fact that the vast majority of media outlets were wildly wrong in their projections suggests one of two things, analysts say: Indian citizens were too afraid to speak their minds, or too suspicious of the broadcast media to trust them with their true opinions.

In reality, the media was campaigning for the ruling party, said Yogendra Yadav, a political activist and veteran election analyst, adding: “They are a stain on our democracy.”

Analysts say Mr Modi and the mainstream media underestimated how much information had moved outside the bubble they had created. As the mainstream media lost credibility, a parallel system of online media was created. news The number of journalists with a more independent view has increased.

In fact, much of the election was conducted online. Opponents found online spaces to be vital outlets for voicing their criticism of Mr. Modi, who they say has made India less democratic and more unequal.

Centrist journalism is lacking, and that is a loss for this country, said Saurabh Shukla, co-founder of The Red Mike, a YouTube channel.

Mr Shukla, an award-winning journalist who left his job at a news channel to start his YouTube channel with another journalist, said there was a clear contrast between what was shown on TV news and what he and many other journalists saw on the ground.

In a sign that Mr Modi was beginning to wake up to this disparity, he sent his ministers to discuss his party’s achievements on YouTube channels. He even occasionally trolled the mainstream media that sang his praises.

If you are in the media and you wave a Modi flag as a mark of devotion, who will stop you? the prime minister told four journalists of a New Delhi-based media outlet.

With a population of 1.4 billion, India has over 350 news broadcasters across 880 satellite TV channels. It also has the largest number of YouTube users in the world.

Since independence in 1947, India has built a reputation for a vast and independent media culture, interrupted only by months of emergency rule and censorship imposed by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in the mid-1970s.

This independent streak has changed over Mr Modi's years in power, however, as leaders of his Hindu nationalist bloc have found a multitude of ways to exert pressure to keep media groups in line.

Journalists and editors critical of the government began to leave traditional media outlets and turn to the Internet. Unlike the television channels that devoted hours to Mr. Modi during the campaign, this group of independent journalists talked about people, their stories and their problems.

Among them is Ravish Kumar. After leaving his job as a prime-time television news anchor, Mr. Kumar began diffusion on YouTube. For months, he has focused on issues such as rising rural unemployment and gaps in competitive exams that have prompted hundreds of thousands of students to join protest marches.

As Mr. Kumar, who is watched by more than a million people almost every day, questioned Mr. Modi about using religious polarization to win votes instead of talking about his development record, his peers on television news used prime time to attack Mr. Modi's opponents.

News anchors largely used their interview time with Mr Modi to ask him easy questions unrelated to national issues, such as: “Is this election a formality?” or “Why don't you tire yourself out?”

Another independent journalist, Ajit Anjumreported voters' anger at a federal minister after he spent days in the Uttar Pradesh state ministerial constituency. Many news channels had predicted that she would win a landslide victory, but she was defeated by her low-profile rival, a long-time campaign manager for opposition leaders. It was another accurate projection by an independent news channel on YouTube.

YouTube has given the BJP and its media supporters a run for their money, said Mr Shukla, the journalist. As election results have come in, more and more viewers have appeared to be turning to online news outlets for updates.

Several independent media organizations came together for their own election night coverage, and many Indians followed them online for more sober analysis than they got from shouting at the TV news.

It is not certain that this sudden rush to independent journalism will continue.

“I don’t know if this will continue,” said Mandeep Punia, a freelance journalist. He added that even as more people watch his content, a new law has made it easier for the government to censor online articles.

Despite the government's challenges, online news providers have gained credibility this election cycle. Their accuracy in predicting results stands in stark contrast to that of cable news networks.

Mr. Yadav, the political activist, said after touring northern India, where Mr. Modi’s party is traditionally based, that he expected the BJP to win no more than 260 seats. Few believed his estimate, especially among television news commentators. But he was right.