UK enters election that could oust Conservatives after 14 years and five prime ministers

(LONDON) — As former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke at a Conservative Party rally in London on Tuesday, he made clear that opinion polls predicted his party would be swept from power in Thursday's election.

“I think and I hope that the British people will show more common sense on Thursday and pull themselves back from the brink,” Johnson said in his first campaign speech in support of current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

One of Sunak's cabinet members, Home Secretary Suella Braverman, set out the party's prospects more succinctly the following day, writing in an op-ed published on Wednesday that “it's over”.

After 14 years in power with five consecutive prime ministers — including Liz Truss, who held the post for just 44 days — the Conservatives, or Tories, are set to be ousted in favour of Labour, a centre-left party that campaigned on a platform calling for “change”.

Polls opened at 7am across the UK on Thursday, marking the country's first national vote since 2019. An exit poll is expected to be released at 10pm, suggesting winners in key races.

Opinion polls in Britain have predicted for more than two years that the Conservatives are heading for a “heavy defeat,” Pippa Catterall, professor of history and politics at the University of Westminster, told ABC News.

“The Conservatives nevertheless went into the election with the expectation that, as usual, the polls would move in their favour,” Mr Catterall said. “Instead, the situation has gotten worse.”

Labour leader Keir Starmer, who would become prime minister, said he hoped to end the Tory “chaos”.

His campaign has released a “manifesto” setting out some of his government's plans, including cutting hospital waiting times, building a greener economy and improving the UK's post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union.

“From Ukraine to Gaza, Labour’s foreign and defence policy largely mirrors that of the current government,” Dr David S. Moon, a lecturer in political science at the University of Bath, told ABC News. “Starmer’s Brexit plan lacks detail beyond a promise to negotiate a ‘better deal.’”

Moon and other political observers said it was hardly surprising that Labor focused its message on what the conservatives have done in office rather than campaigning solely on what they hope to accomplish.

Since David Cameron's victory in the 2010 general election, the centre-right Conservatives have led the country through a period of economic “austerity”, its exit from the European Union, the COVID pandemic and the current cost of living crisis.

“A Starmer victory seems more a product of a media backlash against the Conservatives after the scandal-plagued Johnson and Truss years than enthusiasm for the policy proposals, with Labour now seen in newsrooms as a safe alternative after Starmer’s shift to the right,” Moon said.

Cameron had called for a Brexit referendum before leaving office in 2016. He was followed in office by Theresa May, who hammered out a Brexit deal but resigned before the deal was finalized. During his 2019 campaign, Johnson promised to “get Brexit done,” and the country left the EU in January 2020.

But the Conservatives' leadership during Britain's chaotic exit from the European Union is likely just one of many reasons why support for the party has declined, said Sean D. Ehrlich, an associate professor of political science at Florida State University.

“The Conservatives are deeply unpopular, largely because they are no longer seen as competent,” he said. “Their difficulties in delivering Brexit play a significant role in this decline in popularity, but the election should probably not be seen as a rejection of Brexit itself.”

About six weeks ago, Sunak stood in the pouring rain outside 10 Downing Street, the prime minister's official residence, and announced that he was calling an election.

The prime minister, who came to power in 2022 following an internal party election, has said that a Labour victory would lead to weaker border security and higher taxes. He said on Thursday that a Conservative defeat could mean “higher taxes for a generation”.

“Labour would raise taxes on every aspect of your life, including your death,” he said on social media.

Copyright 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.