Trump Quietly Plans for Biden's Uncertain Future: Chaos Is Our Friend

CNN —

For much of the past year, Donald Trump and his allies have speculated that Joe Biden would not end up being the Democratic presidential nominee, suggesting without evidence that he would resign before the convention and be replaced by another candidate.

As Biden faces an increasingly uncertain political future due to the fallout from his shaky debate performance, Republicans are trying to figure out what the Democratic nominee’s withdrawal would actually mean for Trump’s campaign. And some believe the path back to the White House would likely be easier with Biden at the top of the ticket.

Trump and his allies have taken advantage of Biden’s extended exposure this week, with the former president taking the rare step of keeping a low profile at his New Jersey club and letting Biden take center stage. Trump has no public events scheduled, and his campaign surprised some aides and advisers by telling them to enjoy the July 4 holiday.

Chaos is our friend, a person close to Trump said.

Meanwhile, campaign advisers and key allies have been calling reporters and friendly Democrats, searching for clues about what might happen next if Biden ultimately abandons his reelection bid.

So far, the campaign and its allies have largely ignored Vice President Kamala Harris in their attacks on the Biden administration. But there are signs that the posture is shifting. On Wednesday, a Trump-aligned super PAC, MAGA, Inc., launched its first salvo against Harris by attacking her oversight of Biden’s border policies in an email. It asked, “Is Harris the best they’ve had?”

The Trump campaign insists that nothing will change in its calculations whether Biden leads the Democratic ticket or not.

President Trump will beat any Democrat on Nov. 5 because he has a proven track record and is focused on making America great again, campaign co-managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles said in a statement.

Even if Biden is not the Democratic nominee, the Trump campaign believes the stakes that could determine the outcome of the election will remain the same.

Problems are problems, and that's what people care about, one adviser told CNN.

But the reality may not be so clear-cut. Polls have shown a lack of enthusiasm for both major party presumptive presidential nominees, and it’s unclear how much a shift would change Democratic turnout or affect the opinions of undecided voters. And while Democrats face a time crunch to make a decision before their August convention, so do Republicans, who have spent months building a carefully crafted data operation, attack ads and a general campaign infrastructure focused specifically on Biden winning.

As one Republican pollster put it, Trump would rather take on the devil he knows than the one he doesn't.

Behind the scenes, the Republican National Committee already had rolling books of opposition research on prominent Democrats who could succeed Biden in 2028, Trump advisers told CNN, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, among others.

The books are constantly updated, because, you know, they're perpetual candidates, and they're always running for something, a senior Trump adviser told CNN.

However, two Trump advisers said they would not change strategy or alter their research and plans until the situation with Biden is resolved.

“We don’t know what it’s going to look like at the end of this,” one adviser said. “We’re not going to change anything until we know.”

Some Republicans had publicly hinted at, or even anticipated, Biden’s withdrawal from the race as the president’s physical decline became increasingly evident. During the Republican presidential primaries, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley made it a central plank of their campaigns, arguing that Democrats would replace Biden and that Republicans could not risk pitting Trump against a younger, more energetic opponent.

Trump himself had floated the prospect, repeatedly saying he didn’t think Biden would make it. In an interview nearly a year ago, Trump and conservative commentator Tucker Carlson gave their thoughts on what would happen if Biden dropped out of the race.

After Carlson suggested Harris would replace Biden on the Democratic ticket, Trump predicted: “Not really. I mean, I guess they might have total freedom. A lot of people say she has to stay for some reason. I don’t think that’s true actually. I don’t think other people would accept that.”

But in the aftermath of the debate, Trump’s team did not anticipate such a sustained Democratic panic over Biden’s viability to continue as the party’s presidential nominee. A Trump adviser told CNN that Democratic lamentations were expected to die down within a week.

Trump's team is now preparing for any eventuality, including the need to launch a new campaign focused on a different opponent.

All of the Democrats calling Joe Biden the dishonest guy to resign once supported Biden and his failed policies that led to extreme inflation, an open border, and chaos in the U.S. and abroad, LaCivita and Wiles said in their statement. Make no mistake, Democrats, the mainstream media, and the swamp have colluded to hide the truth from the American public.

Republicans are now considering how to hit Harris, with early discussions focusing on her past statements defending Biden's fitness to serve.

She will be constantly forced to answer a very simple question: “Why did you hide Joe Biden’s lack of mental acuity from the American people?” said a Trump insider.

Most Trump insiders continue to believe that a change is unlikely, citing the relatively low profile of Biden’s potential replacements and the legal challenges of transferring the president’s campaign war chest to a new candidate. Biden, too, continues to insist that he’s not going anywhere. In a defiant campaign call Wednesday, he told his team, “Nobody’s pushing me out the door,” and vowed to stay in the race.

I'm not leaving, he said, sources familiar with the call told CNN.

Here's What Would Happen If Biden Withdrew From the Presidential Race

Efforts to keep Biden on the ballot could also come from the right. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative organization close to Trump, has been preparing for this moment since the spring and recently revealed a playbook for challenging Democrats’ attempts to remove Biden from the ballot in some states where legal deadlines for nominating candidates have passed.

In a brief published last month, somewhat presciently titled “Can They Replace Biden If He Freezes Up During the Debate?” the organization identified three key states—Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin—where Republicans could sue to challenge Democrats’ efforts to change course.

Mike Howell, executive director of the Heritage Election Monitoring Project, acknowledged that any victory would depend heavily on the circumstances of a Biden departure.

Timing is critical, Howell said.

Rick Hasen, an election law expert at UCLA, dismissed the idea that Democrats would have legal difficulty proposing a new name before Biden is even officially nominated.

“I don’t believe it at all,” Hasen wrote on his website. Joe Biden is not the party’s nominee at this time, and states typically designate the majority party’s candidate as the one whose name appears on the ballot.

CNN's Betsy Klein and Kate Sullivan contributed to this report.

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