Exit poll predicts historic Labour victory as UK general election vote count begins

Britain's ruling Conservative Party looks set to be ousted from government after 14 years, with an exit poll released as polls closed predicting a historic election defeat.

Although the official results of the UK's snap general election will not be known for several hours, the poll is being seen as the best possible crystal ball until all the actual votes are counted.

Labour, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is on course to win at least 410 of the country's 650 lower house constituencies. To form a government, a party needs to win 326 seats.

The poll predicted that the Conservatives, also known as the Tories, would win just 131 seats, their lowest total ever. They had 345 at the start of the election.

Conservative cabinet minister Dominic Grieve did not hold back in describing the expected crushing loss, telling the ABC it was a “sad day” for the party and “perhaps one of the worst in its history”.

The sample, collected from voters leaving 133 polling stations across the country after casting their ballots, is widely considered the most reliable indicator available until final results are announced.

In 2019, Boris Johnson's Conservatives were predicted to win 368 seats. They won 365.

If the poll is correct, it means Sir Keir will replace Rishi Sunak as British Prime Minister.

Conservative minister Steve Baker told the BBC the predicted result represented an “extremely difficult moment” for the party.

“We've just had a torrid time, a terrible result, there will probably be recriminations,” he said.

Labour's Rachel Reeves, who will be in cabinet if the party forms government, told the broadcaster that Sir Keir was determined to “bring growth back to Britain”.

“This is an overwhelming majority that is almost unprecedented,” she said.

“This will give us the mandate to bring about the changes that the country needs.”

The Conservatives' predicted rout is not seen as a surprise. During the campaign, many polls all predicted the same thing: Labour would win a landslide victory.

In fact, the party has been ahead of the Conservatives in every sample taken since the start of 2022.

A YouGov poll released on Wednesday was so dire for the Conservatives that it suggested there was a chance the centrist Liberal Democrats, who currently have 11 MPs, could win enough to become the second largest party in parliament and therefore the official opposition.

Labour has promised to revitalise Britain's public health system and boost the country's ailing economy if elected.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives spent much of their time before the election focusing on immigration policy.

Sir Keir has said he would abandon government plans to deport some asylum seekers who have arrived in the UK to Rwanda if Labour is elected.

The Conservatives narrowly won power in 2010 after forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, won a majority in 2015, then ruled in minority after a snap election in 2017. But in 2019, Boris Johnson led them to a landslide victory.

Their 14 years in power have been among the most tumultuous in British history, with the country's vote to leave the European Union, the COVID-19 pandemic and multiple political scandals.

The exit poll, released at 7am AEST on Friday, also predicts significant shifts among the UK's smaller parties.

The Lib Dems are expected to become the country's third largest party, with 61 seats (up from 13), while the far-right Reform UK party could win up to 13 seats.

Before the election, several polls indicated that the Reform Party, led by populist Nigel Farage, would have a negative impact on the Conservative vote.

Health Secretary Dame Andrea Leadsom told the BBC that the exit poll showed that Reform had caused “enormous damage” to the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg told the BBC the party took its “core vote” for granted.

“It's always been a problem. Our base has turned to the Reformation,” he said.

The Scottish National Party, which held 48 seats, is set to see its number of MSPs reduced to 10.

There are several major differences between the way elections are run in the UK and Australia.

Early voting is not available in Britain, but citizens have more time to vote on election day, with polling stations open from 7am to 10pm local time.

Voting also takes place on a weekday, and instead of preferential voting (as in Australia), Britain uses a first-past-the-post system, meaning the candidate with the most ballots wins.

Liberal Democrat MP Daisy Cooper told the BBC that Britain's first-past-the-post system was broken, but agreed her party had learned to “play the game” better.

“We have been clear for many years that our aim is to remove as many Conservative MPs as possible,” she said.

Voting is also not compulsory in the UK, and the country's upper house, the House of Lords, is completely unelected.