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Kremlin officials want Trump to win while pretending otherwise

 


Russian leaders are privately following the U.S. presidential campaign with enthusiasm and interest — and hope that their favored candidate, Donald Trump, will win, three government and presidential administration officials, three Foreign Ministry officials, former officials and two sources in Russia's business elite told The Moscow Times.

Kremlin, government and Russian establishment officials are hoping that Trump — whose 2016 election victory was marred by allegations of Russian interference — will oust President Joe Biden, one of Ukraine's most vocal supporters during Russia's full-scale invasion of the country.

All of The Moscow Times' sources agreed to speak on condition of anonymity, citing concerns about their careers if they spoke publicly about private political matters.

Last week’s debate – and Biden’s faltering performance in particular – gave Russian hawks and pragmatists reason to be optimistic, sources told The Moscow Times.

At the same time, the Kremlin is receiving private warnings from Russian consultants – and public warnings from experts – that Trump's potential return to the presidency could spell even more unexpected trouble for Moscow.

“The Kremlin supports Trump and is happy with the outcome of the debate,” a person close to the leadership of the presidential administration told The Moscow Times.

Several Russian government officials have expressed similar sympathies.

“Moscow sees favorable prospects in the scenario of the arrival of Trump and a new Republican administration in the White House,” a government official told The Moscow Times.

“There are expectations for Trump. And many believe he has a good chance of winning,” a Russian businessman with ties to senior Kremlin and government officials told The Moscow Times.

Many officials said they were eager to follow the latest debate as it unfolded.

“I was an insomniac, so I managed to watch it live,” said a former Russian government official.

Others watched it the next day out of curiosity, the former civil servant learned from his former colleagues.

“I don't know anyone who likes to stay up at 4 a.m. like me,” he said. “But a lot of people watched it later on YouTube.”

The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin did not watch the Biden-Trump debate and would check what each candidate said at a later date.

“This is an internal American matter. We have a lot of issues that are really important for our country. These are the issues that the president has to deal with,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “I don't think you can expect the Russian president to set his alarm, wake up at dawn and watch the debate in the United States.”

Former United States President Donald Trump addresses attendees of a “Chase the Vote” rally at Dream City Church in Phoenix, Arizona. Gage Skidmore (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Moscow is making a concerted effort to downplay the significance of the U.S. elections in public statements by its officials, a current foreign ministry official said.

“In our public statements we want to emphasize that the American elections are not important for Russia. Our task is to downplay the importance of the American elections,” the official said.

But behind closed doors, the Kremlin, the Foreign Ministry and Russian intelligence agencies are closely analyzing the elections.

“Officials and diplomats are watching both the debates themselves and the reactions to them in the United States and elsewhere,” Boris Bondarev, a former member of the Russian delegation to the UN in Geneva who resigned in protest over the invasion of Ukraine, told The Moscow Times.

“In general, the open and transparent policy of the United States, compared to that of Russia, provides a huge amount of information,” he added.

Speaking about the upcoming US elections, Putin stressed that Moscow had no preference as to the winner and was ready to work with whomever American voters chose.

In 2016, Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton sparked an investigation into alleged Russian interference aimed at influencing the vote in Trump's favor.

Eight years later, in February 2024, Putin said he believed Russia could benefit from a Biden victory.

“When Putin said he supported Biden, he wasn’t joking,” a former senior Kremlin official told The Moscow Times. “He was deliberately trying to undermine the current American president, knowing how such ‘support’ would be perceived in the United States, especially in the current climate.”

Russian state and pro-Kremlin media have also focused on details of the recent debate, criticizing the age and quality of both candidates' performances as well as the American electoral system in general.

Major news and political programs late last week, hosted by leading pro-war propagandists Vladimir Solovyov and Dmitry Kiselyov, devoted considerable time to discussing the U.S. presidential debate.

Although both candidates were criticized, it was Biden who received the lion's share.

“Biden repeatedly misspoke and stammered, as was to be expected. Democrats have already called his performance a failure,” the state news agency RIA Novosti wrote.

“The propaganda is trying to use every opportunity to assert itself publicly, at the expense of the American elections in general and the problems of the Democratic Party in particular,” the Foreign Ministry official said.

Weighing the Pros and Cons of Trump vs. Biden

Putin has always placed a high value on comfort with his counterparts during his presidency. But the longer he has been in the Kremlin and the older he has become, the more important that element has become to him, according to three current and two former Russian diplomats who have personally traveled with Putin as part of a delegation.

“Psychologically, it will be easier to establish communication with Trump than with Biden. Biden has already said a lot about Putin: that he is a murderer, a war criminal, etc.,” the current Russian diplomat said.

“After all this, it is difficult to take a first modest step towards dialogue. Trump does not have these limits in this sense,” he said.

However, there are other aspects that go beyond the comfort of face-to-face communication, experts say.

Trump's main advantage for Moscow is his openness to negotiations with Russia and compromise, and his greater willingness than Bain to make bold decisions when it comes to seeking a settlement, said Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

President Joe Biden leaves the stage during a break in a presidential debate with Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, hosted by CNN. Gerald Herbert/AP/ASS

The downside of a Trump presidency for Moscow, according to Suslov, is that the Republican candidate shows a high tolerance for the risks of escalation and a greater willingness to opt for forceful solutions – a recipe for potential disaster in the war in Ukraine.

“In the conditions of a hybrid war, a less escalatory counterpart, like Biden, is more reliable,” Suslov told The Moscow Times.

Trump's appeal to the Kremlin lies in his “ill-concealed sympathy for dictators in general and Putin in particular,” former diplomat Bondarev said.

Moreover, because of his view of politics as a business matter and his apparent disregard for geopolitics, Trump does not view Russia as an economic competitor as he does China.

“Trump will be interested in rapprochement with Moscow and detachment from Beijing. It will be possible to negotiate many different bonuses,” Bondarev said.

At the same time, the Kremlin also sees how it could benefit from a Biden victory, according to Bondarev.

“[Since] “Biden is clearly not in a good position and this weakens his position, and therefore an increase in aid to Ukraine and any real escalation from the United States becomes less likely, given the experience,” Bondarev said.

Although some experts are skeptical that Trump's return will be beneficial for the Russian government, a former senior Kremlin official told The Moscow Times: “Trump's return promises many opportunities for the Kremlin. But perhaps not as many as the Kremlin hopes.”

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