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Trumpism has gained the upper hand: but what will happen to the Republican Party if Trump loses? | Republicans

 


Where is Trumpism going? said one. What will a post-Trump GOP look like? another asked. Republicans are bracing for the battle for leadership if Trump goes down, a third said. On the trail: first signs of a post-Trump GOP, offered a fourth.

Anyone who remembers the 2016 presidential election knows it’s too early to write Donald Trumps’ political obituary, but a recent wave of headlines has illuminated growing angst over the plight of the Republican Party if, as polls suggest currently he falls to defeat in November. .

Republican politicians are scrambling for the job with an eye on 2024. Trump’s activists never hope to purge his brand of native party demagoguery. Authors and commentators wonder whether a post-Trump Republican Party should look like the pre-Trump Republican Party or whether it should start over.

Peggy Noonan, columnist for the Wall Street Journal, asked: Where did Donald Trump come from? Where is the GOP going? Should the whole thing be burnt? New York Times columnist Bret Stephens noted that if Trump loses, the party’s future will be up for grabs. It’s time to start thinking about who can catch it, who should and who will.

The debate has been fueled by clues that the party’s current iron grip may be weakening. Republican leaders categorically rejected his idea of ​​postponing the election due to the coronavirus pandemic. During negotiations on the latest economic stimulus package, they dismissed his proposals for lower payroll taxes and a new FBI building.

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has signaled to vulnerable Republican senators during tough election races that they can distance themselves from Trump if they deem it necessary, according to CNN.

But the forecasts remain reserved for two reasons. First, the election is far from over. Although Trump faces the headwinds of the pandemic, mass unemployment and historically low poll numbers, he still has time to create surprises against his opponent Joe Biden in this most unpredictable campaign.

Second, the end of Trump would not necessarily mean the end of Trumpism. Nine in ten Republicans still approve of the job he does as president, according to Gallup. A SurveyMonkey poll for Axios last December showed Republican voters’ preferred picks for 2024, led by Mike Pence, with Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr in second place, followed by Nikki Haley, Ivanka Trump, Marco Rubio and Mike Pompeo.

It may be too late to put Trump’s genius back in the bottle. This is the view of Stuart Stevens, one of the party’s most successful campaign strategists, whose contribution to the burgeoning literature on his identity crisis is It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party. Become Donald Trump.

Donald Trump’s supporters listen to him speak as he arrives at Burke Lakefront Airport in Cleveland, Ohio on August 6. Photograph: Joshua Roberts / Reuters

It is the Republican Party. There’s not even like an opposition government in exile. There is no De Gaulle; theres just Vichy France. The party is the party that approves Roy Moore [US senate candidate in Alabama accused of sexual misconduct] and attack John Bolton [former national security adviser]. What we saw as a recessive gene in the party turned out to be a dominant gene, Stevens said.

Stevens continued: If you ever really want to get depressed, go read George Bushs 2000 acceptance speech at the convention. It reads like a document from a lost civilization. Who are these people? It’s like the Mayans. It’s all about humility and sacrifice, honor and service.

In a recent interview with the Guardian, Democratic strategist Paul Begala argued that a crushing defeat for Trump would be a catalyst for Republicans to reassess and revive, just as Democrats did after three clarified defeats in 1980, 1984 and 1988. But Stevens believes it will take more than one election.

Trumpism itself raged deeply within the Paul Begala party

Trumpism itself has been deeply unleashed in the party and I think history tells us, darkly, that when a big party legitimizes hatred, which the Republican Party has, it is very difficult to defeat it, has he declared. It takes time, often a lot of blood.

The core Republicans, the older white males, are shrinking with each electoral cycle as the demographics of the Americas diversify, while Trump has alienated many suburban voters. The party has no desire to change. The only thing that will make the party want to change is complete fear. It is never very convincing to voters because they see it as transparent. So I think we were in a period of center-left government, Stevens said.

The pandemic has provided a national stage for moderate Republican state governors such as Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Larry Hogan of Maryland, and Phil Scott of Vermont, all leaders of traditionally democratic states and therefore considered to have potential cross-appeal. John Kasich, the former Ohio governor who ran in 2016, could mount another candidacy in 2024, seeking to make Trump an aberration that should never have happened.

But they will likely face a bitter fight against the loyalists, potentially Senators Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, and Josh Hawley or even Fox News host Tucker Carlson claiming to be Trumps’ true heir. Haley, the ex-governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ex-ambassador to the UN, was careful to distance herself from the president at times and hug her base at others.

We’re not sure exactly how Republicans will reassess and value what Republicanism is Michael Steele

An internal struggle can be cathartic. Michael Steele, former Chairman of the Republican National Committee, said: You’re going to have a lot of Trumpers putting a Don Jr or a Tom Cotton forward and you’re going to have a lot of other people putting a Kasich or Larry Hogan or whoever it is. ‘other. emerge in this space.

So this is the battle that awaits us. We were going to go through it and we have to go through it. It can mean the breakup of the party. It can mean the formation of something else. We don’t know exactly how Republicans will re-evaluate and value what Republicanism is.

Tensions have recently unfolded on Capitol Hill, where a third of the 198 Republican members of the House have been elected since 2016, most following the Trump agenda. Wyoming congresswoman Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, firmly supports Trump on some issues, but criticized him over foreign policy and the pandemic, prompting her to resign her post. Republican post # 3.

Michael Steel, former aide to John Boehner when he was Speaker of the House, has suggested that this offers some insight into how pro-Trump Republicans will seek to rationalize electoral defeat: by scapegoating factions in the party that do not were not loyal enough. They have to be able to blame anyone and anything other than President Trump himself, so they create a straw man argument that he is stabbed in the back by a fifth column of disloyal Republicans instead. only by his own words and actions, Steel wrote. in the Dispatch, a conservative website.

Liz Cheney speaks on Capitol Hill in Washington DC on January 14. Photograph: REX / Shutterstock

Cheney is seen as defending at least some traditional Republican shibboleth abandoned by Trump, such as fiscal responsibility and a hawkish stance towards Russia and other adversaries. The protesters of the first American legacy of presidents could also soften the positions of the parties on the climate crisis, immigration and trade.

But they would need thick skin: Even if defeated, Trump would still have Twitter, Fox News and the Make America Great Again movement at his disposal to heckle.

Thomas Patterson, a professor at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, argues that the party is caught in five traps of its own making, which Trump has only deepened: a constant movement to the right; demographic change; the influence of the right-wing media weakening its ability to govern; major tax cuts that created a split between his working class supporters and market conservatives; contempt for democratic norms and institutions.

Patterson, author of a new book, Is The Republican Party Destroying Itself ?, believes it will be a long way home. If you look at what happened in 2018, Republicans took a big beating in the midterm election, and no lessons were learned, he said. The way the right-wing media ran it was the reason the Republicans lost, is because too many of them tried to move to the center.

Even if they take a real beating in 2020, I think it’s probably going to take two or three of those hits. They can talk all they want about reinvention, but as long as the primary nominating process keeps spitting out these conservatives, it will be very difficult for them to make the switch.

When you ask, who are the moderate leaders who will be at the forefront of this change and who have credibility at the grassroots and elsewhere, boy, that’s a really short list. They have coped with moderate leadership quite well.

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