New British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hopes for Democrat in White House, prepares to face Trump

Keir Starmer, the new British prime minister, has remained silent on relations with the United States before his election, choosing in particular to avoid talking about how he would handle a second Donald Trump presidency.

Starmer is a centre-left politician, the first to come to power in the UK in over a decade, so his views are not at all aligned with Trump’s. But the US presidential election is just a few months away, and depending on the outcome, UK-US relations could look very different across the border.

After the first US election debate and Joe Biden's disappointing performance, the new British government will focus on how to plan for Trump's potential return to the White House in January 2025. And while Starmer has remained silent in public, he and his leadership team have been preparing behind the scenes for some time.

Before they came to government, they devoted much effort to building relationships with figures in American power. This is a well-known path for British Labour politicians, most notably in the close relationship between Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and President Bill Clinton in the 1990s.

It is impressive that Starmer and his foreign secretary, David Lammy, have tried to build relationships with both sides, speaking to Republicans as well as Biden’s Democrats during their visits to the US.

Lammy, who was the first black Briton to study at Harvard Law School and worked as a lawyer in the United States after graduating, recently said in a speech that this special relationship is essential not only to our own national security, but also to the security of much of the world.

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In response to a question about his past comments about Trump, he said the two sides must work together, regardless of who occupies the White House.

Lammy speaking to international media days before the election. Alamy/Zuma Press

The questioner may have been referring to his pre-ministerial days, when Lammy called Trump a racist, a KKK and Nazi sympathiser and said he would protest in the streets if Trump were allowed to come to the UK. Lammy’s cautious response to questions now reflects his much more moderate language on the subject since it began to look as if Labour might actually win power, and he might be a cabinet member.

Proving that the UK is useful

Starmer will aim to demonstrate the UK’s usefulness in the US-UK alliance. With Biden, this will be a fairly routine task. If Trump wins in November, however, Starmer would have a harder time demonstrating this usefulness to those around him.

Diplomatically, Starmer can help US administrations manage their relationship with NATO, encouraging more reluctant members, such as Germany, while curbing efforts by NATO’s most proactive members to expand the alliance. Given Trump’s stated commitment to reassessing NATO’s purpose, Starmer will also need to coordinate with European allies to demonstrate NATO’s relevance to the United States.

Militarily, the UK must demonstrate its willingness to restore its armed forces, particularly after the US declared that the British military was no longer a primary military partner.

This would make it clear that the new British government is listening to its American allies, but also that the UK intends to deploy its military to support US and NATO operations. Trump has repeatedly referred to his reluctance to deploy the US military and his expectation that his allies will shoulder a greater share of the military burden.

Until the presidential election in November, Starmer will be in contact with President Biden. The two men met at recent commemorations of the American landing and, less than a week after taking office, Starmer will meet Biden again, this time as prime minister, at a NATO summit.

Like any other world leader, Starmer will have to tread carefully. Given Trump’s clear dislike of his successor, his proximity to the Biden administration creates the potential for difficulties in establishing good relations with a potential Trump administration.

Since taking office, Biden has made his foreign policy priorities clear: competition with China and safeguards in relations with Russia. Those safeguards were shattered when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Yet the Biden administration has been able to coordinate international support for Ukraine and set clear priorities.

Trump, on the other hand, has not given much information about how he plans to approach foreign policy. He has said he will end the conflict in Ukraine, but has not given many details about how he will do so. What we do know is that he intends to stop funding Ukraine’s defense efforts and wants European allies to fund the replenishment of U.S. military stockpiles. He has also pledged full support for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, which has been a dividing point within Starmer’s party since before the election.

Democratic leaders around the world struggled to deal with Trump during his first term. Typically, they had to either ignore the controversies swirling around him or become Trump apologists. The former US president’s preference for strongmen was consistently demonstrated.

It would be almost impossible for Starmer to emulate those who do what Trump loves best, rolling out the red carpet and lining the streets with cheering crowds. Free speech in the UK means that Starmer would not be able to prevent anti-Trump protests if he came to the UK, and such protests are virtually inevitable given what happened the last time he was there. Starmer would do his best to avoid a state visit by Trump that would include a meeting with the king.

The Trumps during their state visit to the United Kingdom in 2019. EPA/EFE/STR

The implications of the coming year for the special relationship between the two countries are clear: demonstrating the UK’s value will be much easier for Starmer under a Biden presidency than under a Trump one. Starmer would feel compelled to respond to the damage Trump would do to American credibility rather than being able to support him, but that would further degrade the US-UK alliance.

The new British government is preparing to face a relationship with either a Republican or Democratic president. Like many world leaders, Starmer is hoping to count on Biden’s predictability, while bracing for Trump’s chaos.

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