Xi Jinping-Putin military alliance gains new ally to confront US | So Bento in brief

Belarus joins other authoritarian states in the club, with Iran becoming a full member last year.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Astana for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit that began on Wednesday (3). It is their second meeting this year. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leader of the world's largest democracy, did not attend the event, reflecting unease among some members about the direction the SCO is taking.

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to combat terrorism and promote border security, the SCO has grown in recent years, reflecting Beijing and Moscow's shared ambition to counter US hegemony and reshape the system. International in your favor.

In 2017, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) underwent its first expansion, incorporating India and Pakistan. With the inclusion of Belarus, the bloc will have 10 members, representing more than 40% of the world's population and about a quarter of the world's population. economy In addition, the organization has two observer states, Afghanistan and Mongolia, and more than a dozen dialogue partners, ranging from Myanmar to Turkey and the Arab states.

The SCO's expansion follows a trend seen in another bloc led by China and Russia, the BRICS group of major emerging economies, which more than doubled its membership and significantly expanded its global reach last year.

As the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gains international visibility and economic clout, its geopolitical ambitions are also expanding.

The admission of Belarus, a country bordering the European Union, really highlights how the SCO's mission has evolved in recent years, said Eva Seiwert, an expert on policy Exterior view of China at the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies (MERICS) in Berlin.

Unlike Iran, Belarus' entry does not bring major benefits in terms of economic or security cooperation. Therefore, I argue that this inclusion is yet another geopolitical move.

With Russia deeply embroiled in the third year of its grueling war with Ukraine, the SCO has become a crucial diplomatic channel for Vladimir Putin. The organization serves as a platform to demonstrate that he is not internationally isolated.

As relations between China and the United States deteriorate, Beijing has become less concerned about the SCO being seen as an anti-Western organization – a perception that has intensified after Iran's admission, as Eva Seiwert has pointed out.

They want the SCO to be seen as a large bloc that can no longer be ignored, Seiwert said. By bringing all these countries together, China and Russia want to show that they have many supporters for their worldview.

And in this common worldview, there is no place for the United States in Eurasia. At a meeting with senior officials of his Foreign Ministry last month, Putin outlined a future in which a new system of bilateral and multilateral guarantees of collective security in Eurasia will be built with the help of organizations like the SCO. The long-term goal is to gradually eliminate the military presence of external powers in the Eurasian region.

During my recent visit to China, President Xi Jinping and I discussed this issue. It was noted that the Russian proposal is not contradictory, but rather comprehensive and is in line with the basic principles of China's global security initiative, said Putin, who was in Beijing in May.

This grand vision of an alternative future will be the main message to China and Russia at this SCO summit, said Bates Gill, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research.

However, Belarus' membership also raises big question marks about the organization, according to Gill.

This creates all sorts of problems and new questions about the reputation, legitimacy and mandate of the organization, given the nature of the Belarusian regime and its blatant support for Russia's violation of international law and invasion of Ukraine, he said.

Obviously, the SCO can tolerate authoritarian regimes, but Belarus's membership further diversifies and dilutes the organization's initial orientation, which was focused on Central Asia.

The bloc's expansion has not been without friction, including the admission of rivals India and Pakistan, while tensions between Beijing and New Delhi have risen in recent years following deadly clashes on the Himalayan border.

The group's increasingly anti-Western orientation, following the admission of Iran and now Belarus, has also generated unease among members who want to maintain good relations with the West, including with the former Soviet states of Central Asia.

In some ways, this puts the Central Asian states in a very uncomfortable position, Gill said. They are pursuing what they like to call multi-vector diplomacy. They don’t want to commit to dealing with just one major power, like Russia or China.

Gill, who visited Central Asia in April and May, said he noticed ambivalence in regional capitals about the future of the SCO.

India appears to be distancing itself from the SCO. Last year, the country hosted the summit virtually, allowing Modi to avoid hosting Putin and Xi in New Delhi as he sought to strengthen ties with the United States.

Freshly sworn in for his third term, Modi is absent from the Astana summit, despite reports of a visit to the Kremlin next week. This tells us that she does not see the SCO as the most effective channel to reach Indian interests in this part of the world, Gill said.

Even China, the main force behind SCO expansion, is looking for more direct ways to engage in Central Asia without Russia's participation.

Last year, five Central Asian leaders were hosted at the first China-Central Asia summit in Xi'an, a historic city in China. Xi'an, the starting point of the ancient Silk Road, has symbolised China's ties with the West for over a millennium. In March this year, a permanent secretariat for the China-Central Asia mechanism was established in the same city.

Despite China and Russia's ambitions to position the SCO as a counterweight to US-led institutions, the bloc is considerably weaker and less cohesive than NATO, the European Union or the Group of Seven.

With the expansion to include India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus, the SCO will become less of an alliance or a committed group and more of an organization with a strategic vision, representing a Eurasian identity, Gill said.

After the Astana summit, China will assume the rotating chairmanship of the SCO for one year. Eva Seiwert, an expert at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), said Beijing would seek to find more points of convergence among member states.

For China, it is crucial that the SCO does not fail and is seen as a successful organization. They are aware of the difficulties that arise during various expansions, Seiwert said.

She added that if the SCO continues to grow under pressure from Russia and China, its regional relevance could diminish.