How Two Years of Russian War in Ukraine Changed China's Relations with Central Asia

Xi Jinping and Mandarin-speaking Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev have agreed to double bilateral trade as soon as possible.

These commitments included expanding cooperation in oil and gas exploration and production, critical minerals, new energy, scientific and technological innovation, aerospace technology and trade in the digital economy.

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Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin hold talks on sidelines of SCO in Kazakhstan

Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin hold talks on sidelines of SCO in Kazakhstan

In the Tajik capital Dushanbe, Xi Jinping announced Friday the elevation of bilateral relations to the level of a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership and awarded his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rahmon a friendship medal for his role in promoting ties with Beijing.

The official Xinhua News Agency said it was the first time the award had been presented outside China.

No matter how the international situation changes, China will always be a trustworthy friend, reliable partner and close brother of Tajikistan, Xi told Rahmon.

China will remain committed to promoting friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation with Tajikistan and will continue to unswervingly promote friendly and mutually beneficial cooperation with Tajikistan… and firmly support Tajikistan's efforts to safeguard its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, he said in a Chinese statement.

Xi and Rahmon also attended the inauguration of new parliament and government buildings in Dushanbe, projects that began in 2020 with an estimated investment of 1.5 billion yuan ($206 million) from Beijing.

Central Asian countries now tend to look to Beijing for investment and security guarantees, according to Li Lifan, an expert on Russia and Central Asia at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

The war in Ukraine has become a turning point in the competition between China and Russia, with Central Asia decoupling, unintentionally or not, from Moscow, he said.

While Russia is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, there is clearly a growing demand in Central Asia for China to step in and play a greater role in meeting the region's political, economic and security needs.

Although Beijing has been careful to downplay its growing presence in the region due to Moscow's unease about China's role in its sphere of influence, Li said it had inevitably dealt a blow to increasingly deep Sino-Russian ties.

But with Moscow's growing asymmetric dependence on Beijing amid its rivalry with the US-led West, Russia may have to live with that at least for now, he said.

Another mainland China-based expert, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also said that China's growing influence in the region was largely due to a leadership vacuum created by Russia's own decline following the war in Ukraine.

Countries in the region, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, have been hit hard by the war and secondary sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies. It is quite natural that they are relying more on China, despite their efforts to avoid jeopardizing their traditional ties with Moscow, the expert said.

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Why Russia Might Be Receptive to China's Presence in Central Asia

Why Russia Might Be Receptive to China's Presence in Central Asia

For China, resource-rich Central Asian countries, particularly Kazakhstan, which shares a long land border with the far western Xinjiang region, are of growing strategic importance as Beijing fears being further alienated in a Cold War-style confrontation with Washington.

Li said Beijing and Central Asian countries may also have been drawn together by their deep-seated shared security concerns over alleged Western threats of a color revolution in some post-Soviet states to usher in liberal democracies.

In his speech at the SCO summit in Astana, Xi Jinping called on countries to resist external interference, a message he reiterated in Dushanbe by pledging to firmly oppose any interference in Tajikistan's internal affairs under any pretext by any external force.

Central Asia has long been a battleground for great power rivalries, and China is particularly skeptical of Washington's efforts to woo regional countries and make inroads in the region, he said.