Modi's visit to Russia: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on his first visit to an ally, Russia, since its war with Ukraine began

India's prime minister begins a two-day visit to Russia on Monday, his first since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine, a war that has complicated relations between the longtime allies and drawn Russia closer to India's arch-rival China.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit will include a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, whom he last saw in Russia in 2019, in the far eastern port of Vladivostok. The two leaders had previously met in person in September 2022 in Uzbekistan, at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Russia has had close ties with India since the Cold War, and New Delhi's importance as a key trading partner for Moscow has grown since the Kremlin sent troops to Ukraine in February 2022. China and India have become key buyers of Russian oil following sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies that closed most Western markets to Russian exports.
Under Modi, India has avoided condemning Russia's war in Ukraine while stressing the need for a peaceful settlement.

The partnership between Moscow and New Delhi, however, has become strained since Russia began developing closer ties with India's main rival, China, over hostilities in Ukraine.

Last week, Modi skipped the latest summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, held in Kazakhstan. Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior fellow on South Asia at Chatham House in the United Kingdom, said India is increasingly distancing itself from forums where Russia and China play a leading role. “This is evident in India’s relatively low-key chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization last year, and now in Modi’s decision not to attend this year’s summit,” Bajpaee said.

In June 2020, a confrontation on the Sino-Indian border dramatically altered their already tense relations, with rival troops fighting with stones, batons and fists. At least 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers were killed. Tensions have persisted since then, despite talks.

These tensions have had repercussions on how New Delhi perceives Moscow.

“Russia’s relations with China are a matter of concern for India in the context of China’s growing assertiveness in the region,” D. Bala Venkatesh Verma, a former Indian ambassador to Russia, told The Associated Press.

But Modi will also seek to cultivate close relations with Russia, an important trading partner and major defense supplier to India.

Since Western sanctions blocked Russian oil exports after the start of the war in Ukraine, India has become a key buyer of Russian oil. According to analysts, more than 40% of India's oil imports now come from Russia.

India also relies heavily on Russia for military supplies, but with Moscow's supply line hit by the fighting in Ukraine, India has diversified its defense purchases, buying more from the United States, Israel, France and Italy.

“Defence cooperation will clearly be a priority area,” Bajpaee said, adding that 60 percent of India’s military equipment and systems are “still of Russian origin.”

“We have seen delays in the delivery of spare parts… following the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” he said. “I think the two countries should conclude a military logistics agreement, which would pave the way for more exchanges in the field of defense.”

India has taken a neutral stance, neither condemning nor endorsing Russia's war against Ukraine, and has called for negotiations to end the fighting. That has bolstered Putin's efforts to counter what he calls the West's dominance in world affairs.

Subject to an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for actions related to the war in Ukraine, Putin's foreign trips have been relatively rare in recent years, so Modi's trip could help the Russian leader burnish his image.

“We see Putin taking a nostalgic trip — you know, he was in Vietnam, he was in North Korea,” said Theresa Fallon, an analyst at the Center for Russia, Europe and Asia Studies. “I think he’s trying to demonstrate that he’s not a vassal of China, that he has options, that Russia is still a great power.”

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Putin's interactions on the international stage show that “he is far from isolated” and that Russia is not a country to be neglected.

Trade development will also feature prominently in the discussions, particularly intentions to develop a maritime corridor between India's main port of Chennai and Vladivostok, the gateway to Russia's Far East.

Trade between India and Russia has seen a sharp increase, reaching nearly $65 billion in the financial year 2023-24, on the back of strong energy cooperation, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra told reporters on Friday.

Imports from Russia have reached $60 billion and exports from India $4 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24, Kwatra said. India's financial year runs from April to March.

He said India was trying to correct the trade imbalance with Russia by increasing its exports. India's major exports to Russia include drugs and pharmaceuticals, telecommunication instruments, iron and steel, marine products and machinery.

Its main imports from Russia include crude oil and petroleum products, coal and coke, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, fertilizers, vegetable oil, gold and silver.