Orban also meets Xi Jinping without restraint

The question of the month, assuming no further developments, is: what the hell is he doing? Victor Orbn? The Hungarian Prime Minister, in office from 1998 to 2002 and then from 2010 to today, leader of a country of only 9.6 million inhabitants, considered by many as a small illiberal and anti-European autocrat, is shaking up a European Union that has just voted which, among other things, is trying with some difficulty to renew its institutional positions. Hungary took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union and Orban on July 1. in eight days managed to meet Zelenski in kyiv (July 2), Poutine in Moscow (July 5), Xi Jinping in Beijing (July 8), then departure for the NATO summit in Washington (July 9-11). tour de force diplomat who could have other surprises in store, if he is right Peter Szijjartothe Hungarian foreign minister, who advised European politicians to “fasten their seatbelts and follow closely” the next steps in his prime minister's “peace mission.”

We have already spoken here about the reactions of European politicians: furious to the point of ridicule. Those of NATO are more composed: the Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg He limited himself to saying that Orban did not have a NATO mandate in his negotiations, something that no one, least of all Orban, had assumed. Everyone was surprised by a series of initiatives that Orban had obviously prepared in view of the six-month period of the Hungarian presidency.

It is very likely that his talks will not lead to anything decisive. It is impossible for the EU and the US (and therefore Ukraine) to accept any solution that others have agreed on, including a reprobate like Orban, who has always discussed aid to kyiv and who has declared, even in these last hours, in order to be in line with the “peace plan” presented at the time by Xi Jinping and repeatedly rejected by the United States. So why all the fuss?

The reason is simple, and it can be summed up in a single question: why has a similar operation not been attempted, so to speak, since Joseph Borrelthe EU High Representative for Foreign and Defence Policy? The answer is simple: because Borrell does not want a truce, a negotiation, a peace. Borrell wants, like other European and American politicians, the defeat of Russia on the ground. The reasoning is transparent and often explicit: even if it is not a defeat for Russia, it is a defeat for us. And so it is not that the war cannot be stopped or that it cannot be stopped: the war must continue. an axiom. Nothing else matters. It does not matter that the economic-military collapse of Russia is not in sight Ukraine could emerge crushed from the trialThis victory as defined by Zelensky (Russia withdraws from all occupied territories, including Crimea) now seems impossible.

Orban, with his improbable attempts, proposes the exact opposite theory: you make peace (or negotiate or even just a truce) and then you discuss. And this is discussed with everyone. With Putin's Russia, which was not invited to the Peace Conference in Switzerland. Discussions are underway with Xi Jinping's China, which the West considers decisive in its support for Russia but which does not want to have any influence in the process of regulating the conflict. And of course with Zelensky's Ukraine and with the USA. Joe Biden.

Orban, clearly, is not a disinterested idealist.. He is of course afraid of a total war in Europe. However, he cares about relations with China: Xi Jinping recently visited Budapest to talk about the projects that his country has launched in Hungary, especially in the production of batteries and electric cars, worth 15 billion. And he cares about those with Russia, in homage to the theorem also recently stated by the usual Minister of Foreign Affairs Szijjarto: “Where you buy energy has nothing to do with politics or a political statement. It is a question of physical reality. And since it is the obligation and responsibility of the Hungarian government to ensure the security of the country's energy supply, and since this is physically excluded without Russian sources, We will continue to cooperate pragmatically with Russia. As many others do, even if they don't talk about it.”

Hungary is not the only country with economic interests in the war in Ukraine, however. And it is clear that those who have an economic interest in continuing the war can only have a perverse interest, based on the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. The only real strategic consideration is that stopping the war suits everyone. And that the “just peace” that the Ukrainians are courageously and rightly demanding will not come from war. The rest is just tactics.