How Europe is preparing for a possible Trump comeback

At his first G7 summit as president in 2021, Joe Biden delivered a message to America’s allies: “America is back.” Their response, the president reminded TIME in a recent interview, was: “For how long?”

Three years later, this question is at the heart of European concerns, which expect Donald Trump to edge out Biden in the race for the White House in November. While a rematch between the current and former presidents had long been expected, the first presidential debate of this campaign, in which Biden appeared alarmingly frail (the 81-year-old president was apparently suffering from a cold) compared to Trump’s usual bluster and boasting, highlighted the reality of this duel across the Atlantic. Panic quickly set in.

American democracy is being killed before our eyes by gerontocracy, Guy Verhofstadt, the former Belgian prime minister who now serves in the European Parliament, wrote about the debate in an X-rated post. German lawmaker Norbert Röttgen warned that Germany must prepare for an uncertain future at full speed, adding that if we don’t take responsibility for European security now, no one will. Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski appeared to suggest in a cryptic message that Biden should consider withdrawing from the race, stressing the importance of managing his ride into the sunset. Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was less subtle: Joe Biden can’t do it.

Europe survived Trump’s first term, of course. But the continent would be in a much more perilous position in a second term, not least because of Russia’s three-year invasion of Ukraine that shows no sign of ending. While many European leaders and policymakers are no doubt thinking about the consequences of such a scenario for the continent, few are willing to talk about it publicly. [The U.S.] “This is a country I know very well, and because I know it very well, I’m going to leave the debates that are happening in their politics to them,” David Lammy, Britain’s new top diplomat, told TIME at a recent press conference in London. He revealed that at least some preparations were underway, noting that he has ties to U.S. lawmakers across the political spectrum, including Trump acolytes and advisers such as Sen. Lindsey Graham and former national security adviser Robert O’Brien.

In private, however, other MEPs are more frank about the challenges that a possible Trump re-election would pose. It is almost impossible to prepare for it, because the main problem is [Trumps] “Unpredictability is one thing,” a senior German official who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely told TIME in June. Indeed, many Europeans remember Trump’s first term as erratic and detached, defined by trade wars, isolationism, and deep skepticism toward the EU and NATO. In a second term, Trump has promised to do the same, telling TIME in a recent interview that he would take Europe to task on trade (“They don’t want our agriculture. They don’t want our cars. They don’t want anything from us. It’s like a one-way street”) and defense spending (“They took advantage of us, both on NATO and on Ukraine.”)

Read more: How far would Trump go?

It is Trump’s seemingly dubious commitment to NATO, whose 75th anniversary summit is being held this week in Washington, that most worries transatlantic observers. This is Europe’s main vulnerability to the United States, says Majda Ruge, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations based in Berlin. While the former president may not be able to follow through on his earlier threats to pull the United States out of NATO, since such a move now requires congressional approval, he could demand that European countries dramatically increase their defense spending or even suggest, as he has already done, that those that don’t should be relegated to less protection. Another proposal, floated by a think tank close to Trump, would be for the United States to maintain its nuclear umbrella over Europe but also reduce America’s security role on the continent.

Although European countries have increased their defense spending in recent years, notably Poland (which has doubled its defense spending since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to 3.9 percent of GDP) and Germany (where Chancellor Olaf Scholz has pledged to reform German defense policy in response to the Russian invasion), and despite calls for greater strategic autonomy from figures like French President Emmanuel Macron and others, Europe remains heavily dependent on American security guarantees. There is a growing recognition that the U.S. engagement with Europe is going to be much more volatile and much less straightforward if Trump is re-elected, says Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas program at the Chatham House think tank in London. It is very clear with Trump that any prospect of getting more from America is going to depend on Europe acting.

Europeans fear that the volatility will also extend to U.S. support for Ukraine, which has already been hampered by costly delays stemming from Republican opposition in Congress. While Trump has suggested that ending the war in Ukraine would be one of his first orders of business if re-elected, he has not revealed how. In the absence of such details, Europeans have stressed the importance of making support for Ukraine Trump-proof, should the former president decide to significantly cut or end U.S. military aid to Kiev. While outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has floated the idea of ​​a multi-year aid package to cushion Ukraine against the winds of political change, many remain pessimistic about the prospects of a full-scale Ukrainian victory in the near future.

The ultimate goal is obviously the full restoration of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, including Crimea, Czech President Petr Pavel told TIME in a recent interview. But we all understand that this is not an easy task. It will not happen in the near future.

Read more: A worrying message on Ukraine from a NATO head of state

Less agreeable, more transactional diplomacy won’t be limited to NATO. Whether dealing with issues as disparate as trade policy, climate change or relations with China, Vinjamuri warns that Europeans should expect Trump to tie together multiple policy issues. It’s clear that Donald Trump will once again engage in tariff wars, Vinjamuri says, referring to the Trump administration’s decision in 2018 to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum from the EU; the former president has proposed imposing a 10% tariff on all imports if he wins a second term. He will confront Europe on all sorts of issues related to trade and Europe’s cooperation with China.

We would like to think that it is possible to separate the different areas, she adds, but if Trump is re-elected, the repercussions will be enormous. Indeed, a Trump administration could threaten to withdraw American troops from Europe to force a change in trade policy or threaten to change its policy toward Moscow if European countries do not change their approach to Beijing.

The sooner Europe can form a common position on these issues, Ruge warns, the stronger it can be in the face of an overly authoritarian Trump administration. But the continent remains deeply divided, including over its continued support for Ukraine, climate change and immigration. Those divisions are likely to be exacerbated by the rise of far-right parties, some of which are already in government in half a dozen of the EU’s 27 countries. Spoilers like Hungary’s Viktor Orbn would be particularly emboldened by a Trump return.

Ultimately, whatever preparation Europe feels it needs to do before November, it may already be too late. Europeans are now taking this issue very seriously, but I think the timing is unfortunately not optimal, says Ruge, who recently co-authored a policy brief outlining six foreign policy scenarios Europe could face in a second Trump term.

In the report, she and her co-authors noted that while European leaders and policymakers are undoubtedly aware of the challenges they will face in a second Trump term, little political action has been taken — a dissonance that stems from divisions within Europe over how risky a Trump administration would be (some European governments, notably in Hungary and Slovakia, welcome the prospect) and the extent to which they can weather a second term as they did the first.

The crucial question is not only how these countries should prepare, but also when they should start preparing, Ruge says, and it is certainly not now. The process should have started two years ago.

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