What Modi and Putin hope to achieve from their Moscow summit

IIndian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arrived in Russia for his first one-on-one summit with Vladimir Putin since the Russian leader launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

It is a highly symbolic choice of destination for Modi's first bilateral visit since he was sworn in for his third term as prime minister, and the Kremlin has been delighted to see the West jealous.

Modi also breaks with a tradition that typically sees Indian prime ministers begin their term with a first visit to neighboring South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives or Bhutan.

The visit reflects India's growing confidence in its ability to play both sides of the East-West conflict, which has deepened considerably since Russia began declaring war on Ukraine. Modi will follow his Moscow visit with a trip to Austria, a country that supported Ukraine's EU membership bid and provided hundreds of millions of euros in humanitarian aid.

Putin and Modi were due to hold informal talks over dinner on Monday evening before a day of meetings on Tuesday.

India's external affairs ministry said he would discuss the multiple geopolitical challenges facing the world and that the visit showed that the two countries continued to enjoy strong ties. As he boarded the plane for Russia on Monday, Modi said he would review all aspects of bilateral cooperation with Mr Putin and seek to play a supportive role for a peaceful and stable region.

Putin, who is making a concerted effort to showcase the support of his allies to legitimize his war and counter Western efforts to portray him as a pariah on the international stage, has said no topic will be off limits between the two leaders, according to the Kremlin.

The Indian government has neither condemned nor endorsed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Last month, Modi made his first foreign trip of his third term to join the G7 in Italy. He then skipped a Western-hosted peace summit in Ukraine hosted in Switzerland. India was represented at those talks by its ambassador and did not sign a joint communiqué after the meeting, insisting that Russia must be involved in the negotiations.

Harsh V Pant, professor of international relations at Kings College London, explains: The Independent that a meeting between Putin and Modi was long overdue, given the way the geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting due to the situation in Ukraine.

India-Russia relations have a rich history: Delhi has long been heavily dependent on Moscow for arms imports. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has also bought huge volumes of cheap Russian oil after the US and European countries imposed sanctions, helping Putin fill his war chest.

India, however, is uneasy about Putin's rapprochement with China, its main Asian rival with which it has frosty relations. India has also been forced to diversify its arms purchases away from Russia, given Moscow's military commitments in Ukraine, buying more weapons from the United States, Israel, France and Italy.

These discussions will be about how to build India-Russia relations because, whatever they may look from the outside, they are not as healthy as they seem, Pant says. We are living in a new world. India does not have a very strong economic partnership with Russia. So the strategic realities are changing. India would like to understand Russia and engage with it on its own terms.

With this trip, India is sending a clear signal to the United States that it will hedge its bets on defense purchases, just as the United States is doing by once again opening its doors to China.

THE [potential] The gains for India from this summit are significant compared to [those for] Russia, says Dr Rafiq Dossani, senior economist at the Rand Corporation think tank The independent.

By playing its game right, India can position itself as a more valuable power than China, whose relations with Europe have been damaged because of its position. This can allow India to be the main negotiator for peace in Ukraine in the future, he said.

India will also seek to maintain its steady supply of Russian energy as it seeks to wean itself from its dependence on the volatile Middle East market and other sources such as Venezuela, he said.

Analysts say India will also seek assurances on arms cooperation, as the Indian military still operates with large quantities of Russian hardware.

Defence cooperation will clearly be a priority area, said Chietigj Bajpaee, senior fellow on South Asia at Chatham House. We have seen delays in the delivery of spare parts… following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said. I think the two countries should have a military logistics agreement, which would pave the way for more defence exchanges.

For Russia, the visual aspect of this visit is arguably more important than the tangible results. In addition to his multiple recent meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Russian president has traveled to North Korea and then Vietnam to project the image of a world leader who still enjoys international support.

Modi's visit to Moscow is the most significant achievement of this campaign, Pant says, because India is both an important counterweight to China in the Asia-Pacific region while enjoying strong ties with the West.

Putin's efforts to woo India indicate that Russia is seeking to demonstrate its resilience in the face of Western isolation and assert its independence in managing relations with China, Pant said.

I don’t think Russia wants to be seen as a junior partner to China. By engaging aggressively with India, Russia is signaling to China that it wants to maintain its own distinct space. As Russia becomes increasingly isolated from the West, it risks being seen as subordinate to China, a perception it probably wants to avoid.