Donald Trump's visit to Butler marks his last campaign stop before the RNC

Former President Donald Trump's final campaign stop before next week's Republican National Convention will be in western Pennsylvania, as speculation mounts over his long-awaited choice of a running mate.

The Butler County visit marks Trump’s fifth trip to Pennsylvania this year, a sign of the state’s central importance in the presidential race. But it is the first visit this year by either presidential candidate to a county that Trump won in 2020.

This will be Trump’s first stop in western Pennsylvania this year. Trump’s previous visits have been to Philadelphia, Dauphin, Bucks and Lehigh counties, all of which voted for President Joe Biden the last time Trump was on the ballot. Biden has focused his campaign efforts primarily in the state, in the Philadelphia area, Scranton and Pittsburgh.

Butler County has been Trump-friendly territory, giving him double-digit points in both 2016 and 2020.

Saturday’s rally is scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. at the Butler Farm Show, with gates opening four hours earlier. Western Pennsylvania is a region the former president won overwhelmingly in 2020.

It will be a busy day of political visits across the commonwealth, as both campaigns view Pennsylvania as critical to victory.

Vice President Kamala Harris will be the keynote speaker at the Asian American and Pacific Islander presidential debate in Philadelphia. First lady Jill Biden will be in Pittsburgh to attend a dinner hosted by the Italian Sons and Daughters of America. The visits come as Democrats are cleaning house after Biden’s disappointing performance in the June 27 debate.

Trump may nominate vice president from Butler County

The former president's visit to Butler comes as the announcement of his vice presidential pick is growing. The list of candidates considered for vice president reportedly includes Republican Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Republican Sen. J.D. Vance (Ohio) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Butler County lies about 47 miles east of the Ohio border, which has helped fuel speculation that Trump might tap Vance, the junior Ohio senator who frequently weighs in on culture war issues.

Trump's visit is the final campaign event before the Republican National Convention begins in Milwaukee on July 15. Trump has suggested he would like to announce his choice at the convention, but that could present some logistical challenges for the formal nominating process.

Butler might be the perfect place to introduce Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy, to the area's white, working-class population.

Vance has had mixed views on Trump. In 2016, he told NPR that he couldn't stand Trump. He also wrote a 2016 op-ed in The New York Times that declared: Mr. Trump is unfit to hold the highest office in our land.

Once Vance launched his 2021 Senate campaign, he met with Trump and won his support. In a June interview, Vance said he was wrong about the former president. Vance, once a Never Trump supporter, is now considered one of Trump’s top three choices to run with him on the ticket.

Trump feuded with his former vice president, Mike Pence, in the years following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, after Pence refused to play a role in an effort to block the certification of Biden's election victory.

Why Butler County?

Trump won the county with nearly 66% of the vote in 2020 and 61% of the vote in 2016, according to county election data.

Butler County is in the 16th Congressional District, represented by U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly (R., Pa.), who has shown support for Trump following his 34 felony convictions. Kelly will also run for reelection in November and received Trump’s endorsement ahead of his primary last April.

Kelly was also one of 139 U.S. Representatives who voted to uphold one or both objections to electoral votes in Arizona and Pennsylvania on January 6, 2021.

The county is a largely rural and predominantly white area that leans heavily Republican. But the county is close to areas like the Pittsburgh suburbs that could play a big role in deciding the state. Allegheny County (about 45 miles from Butler County) voted heavily for Biden in 2020, with nearly 60% of the vote.

Trump visited Butler County in 2020, delivering a speech at the Butler County Regional Airport.

Why is this first Trump campaign visit of 2024 taking place in a red county in Pennsylvania?

Trump has focused much of his campaign in Pennsylvania on counties and demographics that Biden won in 2020, aiming to claw back as many votes as possible from the president’s base and the narrow margin by which Biden won four years ago. Biden won the state by about 1 percentage point.

Trump’s last campaign visit to Pennsylvania was to Temple University’s Liacouras Center on June 22. Before that, he visited Newtown in Bucks County and Schnecksville in Lehigh County in April, as well as Philadelphia (for a Sneaker Con event) and Harrisburg in Dauphin County in February. Biden won each of these suburban counties by just over 50 percent of the vote, and Philadelphia by 81 percent.

The former president’s rally at the Liacouras Center last month was his first in the city and came just weeks after he opened his campaign office in the northeastern city of Holmesburg. The Biden campaign will continue to rely heavily on the large number of Democratic voters in Philadelphia and its suburbs, but any number of votes Trump can bring to his camp could impact his statewide score.

Beyond Pennsylvania, Trump has visited large, diverse cities in other key states, including Detroit, where he visited a predominantly black church in June.

Trump’s visits to Philadelphia and Detroit reflect a broader trend of the campaign trying to gain ground with voters of color. A Pew Research Center study in May found that while black voters still overwhelmingly support Biden, his advantage with that demographic of voters is not as large as it was four years ago.

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