Europe weakened by China at the worst possible time

Rumours of a trade war are growing louder. Not just between China and the US if Donald Trump is re-elected, but also between China and Europe. Now more than ever, it is important for Europe to speak with one voice on international affairs. But the recent election makes that prospect much less likely. We should expect a more divided and less coherent Europe on foreign policy issues, including those that are important to Australia, notably policy towards China.

The shift to the right in last month’s European elections has been much talked about. While the centre-right parties have ultimately held firm, they will now need the support of the far right, which has regained its strength and is determined to dismantle the European Union from within.

This shift to the right has not been uniform, however. The results of the elections in Hungary and Poland, as well as the national elections in France, have reversed this trend. Instead of a landslide victory for the far right, the latest elections have mostly meant a shift of power towards the incumbents.

All this will leave Europe even more divided and more inward-looking.

Europe has always had the challenge of being more than the sum of its parts in foreign policy.

Take the example of Hungarian Viktor Orbn, who embarked on a appeasement mission Russia and China have been heavily criticized by their European counterparts. Or France, which finds itself in a difficult political situation after its recent elections. A more distracted France is particularly worrying for the coherence of European foreign policy, because Paris has been the only one to define a vision of the continent's role in the world.

And the timing could not be worse. If Trump is returned to the White House in November’s elections, Europe would face a more demanding and less reliable economic and security partner. Emmanuel Macron’s calls for greater strategic autonomy for the European Union have often provoked backlash across the continent and raised eyebrows in the United States. But Europe may soon be forced into a more isolated role without having prepared for it.

The impact of the recent elections will be particularly acute on EU policy towards China. Europe has long been grappling with how to deal with this increasingly assertive great power. National reactions range from enthusiastic support, in the case of Hungary, to strong opposition, in the case of Lithuania.

However, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Europe has become more sober European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who won a second term last week, has done an admirable job of finding a common line focused on reducing risks in key areas while keeping trade flowing, at least for now.

The focus on national economic resilience will continue. One example is the right-wing Italian government led by Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, which has taken several steps to reduce China risks. However, European governments, increasingly wary of popular backlash against incumbent leaders, will be more susceptible to Chinese economic incentives and pressures, including efforts to sow further divisions within the bloc.

Last month, the EU introduced Tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles were imposed. France and Spain supported the measure, while Germany tried to sabotage it until the last minute. Berlin feared retaliation from Beijing against its important automobile industry.

In response, China has announced anti-dumping investigations into European spirits (99% of which comes from France) and pork (nearly a quarter of which comes from Spain). Conversely, China has so far refrained from openly threatening car manufacturers (which would disproportionately affect Germany).

It is not hard to understand how parties that focus on domestic problems, including a faltering economy and high cost of living, might buckle under economic pressure from China.

Europe's soft power is also likely to be affected by the results of the recent elections. Europe prides itself on its willingness to take principled positions on issues such as climate change and human rights. Earlier this year, the European Union adopted a principled position on human rights. pass landmark legislation requiring large companies to identify and address human rights and environmental risks in their value chains. introduced a ban on goods produced by forced labor, with an eye on Xinjiang.

Progress on these issues will suffer from a Europe that not only focuses on domestic issues, but also leans further to the right. The new far right in power will not be interested in confronting China on principles that it does not itself defend. This will weaken Europe's global authority, especially in a world increasingly dominated by hard power.

Australia faces a weakening and divided Europe. As the world’s third-largest economy, Australia has become an important player in the fight against Beijing’s economic coercion. More recently, it has begun to play a greater strategic and military role in the Indo-Pacific region, as illustrated by the participation of a large European contingent in the Royal Australian Air Force’s Pitch Black exercises this year.

Europe has always faced the challenge of being more than the sum of its parts when it comes to foreign policy. But recent election results suggest that it will now be even harder for the EU to stand on its own as a global actor, let alone get all 27 countries moving in the same direction.