What Could Another Trump Presidency Mean for Netanyahu? | Gaza

In 2021, former US President Donald Trump told Israeli journalist Barak Ravid that his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu suffered after the Israeli prime minister congratulated Joe Biden on his victory in the 2020 US presidential election.

Fuck him, Trump said in the interview.

“I loved Bibi,” Trump said at the time. “I still love Bibi. But I also love loyalty.”

Trump saw this as a betrayal, Eyal Lurie-Pardes of the Middle East Institute told Al Jazeera. Trump has been very supportive of Israel but critical of Netanyahu, attacking him for [October 7] is happening under his watch and is weaker than ever.

Trump does not like to choose a losing partner, he added.

As the odds of Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee who edged out Joe Biden in national polls before dropping out of the U.S. race this weekend, returning to the White House after the November election increase, Netanyahu is working to get back into Trump's good graces, analysts say. The two men enjoyed a close relationship during Trump's tenure as U.S. president, and the Israeli leader has made overtures to rekindle their personal relationship.

Since the 1980s, Netanyahu has built alliances with the Republican Party, with the right and with evangelical Christians, Zachary Lockman, a professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic studies at New York University, told Al Jazeera. He sees the latter as his most enduring allies, because the Democratic Party, as he understands it, includes elements increasingly critical of Israel, and Biden is a relic of the past.

The Israeli prime minister has consistently praised Trump, describing him in 2020 as the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House.

Trump has often returned the compliments. In 2020, the then-US president presented Netanyahu with a ceremonial gold key to the White House.

“This is a key to our country and to our hearts. And you've been an extraordinary leader for a long time,” Trump told Netanyahu.

Biden is greeted by Netanyahu on October 18, 2023, as he visits Israel amid its war on Gaza [Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters]
Resumption of Netanyahu's agenda

Netanyahu travels to Washington this week to address the US Congress on July 24.

The Israeli prime minister is expected to meet with Biden and, separately, Vice President Kamala Harris, who virtually secured the Democratic Party’s nomination for the November presidential election after Biden withdrew from the race. Harris, as vice president, has been a vocal supporter of Israel’s war on Gaza, but she will reportedly not chair the congressional session when Netanyahu speaks.

There is no immediate indication whether Netanyahu will meet with Trump, who survived an assassination attempt on July 13. But Netanyahu’s camp has been trying to thaw relations with Trump for some time. Axios reported that a Netanyahu ally even traveled to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida residence, to read passages from Netanyahu’s book praising the former president.

The Israeli prime minister also posted a video on social media addressing the recent assassination attempt on Trump.

“Like all Israelis, my wife Sara and I were shocked by the horrific assassination attempt against President Donald Trump,” Netanyahu said in his video address. Trump later posted the video on his social media site Truth Social.

Even without Trump in office, Israel has received unwavering support from the United States. The Biden administration has consistently backed Israel with billions of dollars in military aid since October 7, even as the death toll of Palestinians stands at 39,090.

Media reports say Biden has privately complained about Netanyahu, but the US has never wavered in its material support for Israel.

Yet some on the Israeli right are unhappy with the current level of American support and hope that a Trump presidency will remove all constraints.

According to Lockman, when Trump was president, he supported the implementation of Netanyahu's program. He hopes that this program will be resumed and that American pressure on Israel will cease, even if it is minimal and does not translate into anything concrete. Nevertheless, Trump's victory means for Netanyahu that it gives Israel back the ability to do what it wants.

During his tenure as president, Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, appointed an ambassador ideologically aligned with the Israeli settler movement, and hosted the signing of the Abraham Accords, which led to the normalization of relations between Israel and four Arab states: Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Sudan.

Palestinians collect salvageable items after an Israeli raid in al-Mawasi, Gaza Strip, June 29 [Eyad Baba/AFP]
Trump will let them finish the job

In recent months, the Biden administration has been roundly criticized for its Gaza policies. Massive student protests have erupted on U.S. and international university campuses. Polls show that more than 40 percent of Democrats are critical of Biden’s handling of Gaza, and many officials, including a senior State Department official, have resigned over Biden’s policies toward the besieged Palestinian enclave. These critics have said Biden is complicit in what the International Court of Justice (ICJ) considers plausible genocide.

But within the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, the criticism of Biden is quite different. And the criticism extends beyond Netanyahu to other right-wing figures, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has reportedly said that a captivity deal should be avoided because it could help Biden against Trump.

There is a difference between how those inside and outside the Israeli government perceive American support, Lurie-Pardes said. In the eyes of the Israeli right, [Biden administration] has always been reluctant to send all the munitions requested, especially offensive weapons, and a shipment that is being held up is part of a new cycle here.

In early May, the Biden administration withheld a shipment of weapons to Israel over concerns they would be used in the Rafah offensive. About half of that shipment was sent in July, but the other half is still being held back over concerns they could be used against civilians. In addition, Lurie-Pardes said, Biden’s rhetoric has shifted toward pushing Israel to negotiate a ceasefire.

The right saw this as not giving Israel the support it needed to finish the job. [in Gaza]he said.

Sarah Leah Whitson, director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), said Biden had tried to balance his commitment to Israel with offering few measures to address the U.S. ally's criticisms, such as sanctions against violent settlers.

I think that would go away if Trump were elected, and the Trump administration would position itself more openly and sincerely as supporting Israel, Whitson told Al Jazeera.

She added, however, that Trump would take a tougher stance in punishing Israel if it defied US demands, unlike Biden who failed to implement his warnings to the Israeli government against invading Rafah and blocking aid to Gaza.

Israeli security forces close the main entrance to the town of Huwara in the occupied West Bank following reported attacks by Israeli settlers on July 19. [Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP]
Lifting of sanctions

If Trump takes office next year, some analysts expect him to implement or reverse some policies. While the Biden administration has been criticized for failing to hold Israel accountable for its violations of international law and high civilian deaths, it has applied sanctions to some settlers and settler organizations in the occupied West Bank.

Violence in the West Bank has spiraled out of control since October 7. Since then, Israeli forces and settlers have killed 513 people in the West Bank, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Additionally, on July 4, Israel approved the largest land confiscation in the West Bank in 30 years, according to Peace Now, an anti-settlement watchdog.

Critics have said Biden's sanctions against settlers and settlements are insufficient. Experts believe that if Harris is elected president, she will largely continue Biden's policy on Gaza.

A Trump presidency, however, would likely remove sanctions against settlers altogether.

There is a very high probability that if Trump returns to power, the sanctions will be lifted, even though they have been described by many as too little too late, because the settlers are more violent than ever, Lurie-Pardes said.

While the Biden administration has spoken out against maintaining an Israeli presence in Gaza, Lurie-Pardes added that Trump's return to the White House could lay the groundwork for a future relocation to Gaza and could be Netanyahu's way of calming down some of the statements made by [far-right ministers in his government] Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.

Things could certainly get worse, Lockman said. Netanyahu and his right-wing ideological allies could view a second Trump presidency as an opportunity to carry out their agenda, taking on all their ideological enemies, which could also include war with Lebanon, he added.

With additional reporting by Ali Harb.

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