Opinion | The possibility of a Trump 2.0 should push China to recalibrate its foreign policy

But behind closed doors, Chinese leaders reportedly spent some time discussing another man who could throw a spanner in the works, more than 10,000km away.

Donald Trump probable election Donald Trump's arrival in the White House for the second time in November and its ramifications for China have been a hotly discussed and debated topic, according to a source familiar with the thinking of Chinese leaders.

After all, US-China relations took a decisive turn in 2018 when the then US president launched a trade war against China as part of his administration's efforts to escalate geopolitical rivalry with Beijing.

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Chinese officials had already been watching with great interest the growing possibility of a Trump comeback even before the third plenum, so called because it was the third meeting in the party's five-year cycle after that of U.S. President Joe Biden. disastrous performance in debate June 27 and assassination attempt on Trump on July 13, two days before the meeting began.

They may not acknowledge it publicly, but Trump 2.0 could have profound implications for how China implements Xi Jinping's vision of reform and opening-up.

Trump may not be the reason why the sweeping 22,000-word reform plan released after the meeting is heavy on bombastic slogans and light on details. Party tradition dictates that a key meeting like the third plenum focuses on long-term commitments, leaving the details to be worked out by relevant departments in the months ahead.

But that may well fit the logic of China's leaders, who must wait and see if Trump wins.

The prevailing sentiment among China watchers is that Trump 2.0 deteriorate bilateral relations Tariffs between the world's two largest economies are already at historic lows. Trump has said in recent interviews that he would consider imposing even higher tariffs on Chinese imports if elected.

This concern is understandable, but a possible Trump presidency may not mean only gloomy and disastrous bilateral relations, from the Chinese perspective.

First, Chinese leaders have long concluded that whoever enters the White House next, Trump or Kamala HarrisThis is unlikely to lead to a significant improvement in relations. The best they can hope for is to stabilize relations while China wants to focus on growing its domestic economy.

In many ways, Trump’s characteristic transactional approach to American leadership in international affairs could work in China’s favor geopolitically. In a recent interview, Trump reaffirmed his longstanding commitment skepticism Defending Taiwan in the event of an attack from mainland China could be a key plank of Trump's policy. Trump 2.0 could help lower the temperature on the Taiwan issue, which Beijing considers the most important. Red line in bilateral relations.

Trump threatens to impose higher rates Trump’s advisers have reportedly floated the idea of ​​demanding increased defense spending for the United States. Chinese imports could be a major blow to Chinese exports and manufacturing, but this must be read in the global context: he would go after anyone who has a trade surplus with the United States, including the European Union. In addition, his repeated warnings to NATO allies to increase defense spending. 3 percent of gross domestic product, a higher target than the one agreed would only increase tensions between Washington and these European nations.

All of this could offer China a much-needed opportunity to disrupt the united Western front that Washington has assembled to resist Beijing's growing and assertive influence.

China's foreign policy priority should therefore focus on repairing and restoring ties with European countries, which have been touched by Beijing's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its uprising trade tensions.

To improve its strained relations with Europe, Beijing must do more to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

It seems that this is starting to happen. Late last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba in Guangzhou, the capital of Ukraine. first time A Ukrainian foreign minister has visited China since the Russian invasion.

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On the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Laos late last month, Wang also met with U.S. Secretary of State Antoine Blinken and the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the situation in Ukraine, among other issues. This has given rise to speculation that China is stepping up its mediation efforts in the Ukrainian crisis.

It happened as JD VanceTrump's running mate for vice president said a second Trump administration would try to quickly negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine so Washington could focus on China.

Whether Vance plans to use China as an excuse to quickly end the war in Ukraine, or even whether that is Trump's real intention, remains to be seen, but a potential Trump presidency has provided an urgent catalyst for China to readjust its foreign policy.

Wang Xiangwei is a former editor of the South China Morning Post. He now teaches journalism at Baptist University

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