Explanation of the diplomatic rush to normalize the situation in Syria

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on July 24, following reports that Turkey and a handful of European states were reconsidering their engagement with Syria. The EU suspended relations with Damascus in 2011 after the outbreak of civil war, but in late July, eight EU foreign ministers, including those of Italy and Austria, said Syria was ready to cooperate with the Syrian president. called EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell is due to re-examine and assess the two blocs’ approach to Syria after 13 years of conflict. On July 25, Italy became the first G7 member to announce it would restore diplomatic relations with Syria. The move marks a shift that echoes the normalisation of relations with Assad in the Arab world last year.

On July 7, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he extend an invitation The Syrian president has asked Assad to hold talks “at any time” to restore relations. This news has sparked speculation about Assad's potential response and what preconditions he might demand before agreeing to such negotiations. Previous diplomatic attempts between the Turkish, Syrian and Russian defense ministers in December 2022 did not result in political convergence. Syrian experts have suggested that low levels of engagement between intelligence and security officials date back to 2018.

While a major breakthrough in Turkey-Syria relations is unlikely, Turkey’s sudden interest in restoring ties with Assad may be explained by the fact that Turkey is seeking to familiarize itself with new rules of engagement in anticipation of a scenario in which the United States withdraws its remaining 900 or so troops currently stationed in northeast Syria, a step that is likely to be accelerated if Trump wins the November U.S. presidential election. But rising regional tensions following a series of high-profile assassinations in Lebanon and Iran mean that a U.S. withdrawal is not imminent.

Syria was readmitted to the Arab League last May, but despite this regional shift around Assad, US and European policy toward Syria has remained stagnant, with no indication of what a long-term strategy would look like. There are undoubtedly economic incentives that seem to justify a reset. War-torn Syria represents an opportunity for reconstruction and investment, and international actors recognize that funding and humanitarian efforts require engagement with the Assad government to have lasting impact.

Despite external support from Russia and Iran, Damascus still controls only 70% of Syrian territory. Turkey controls a sizable area including cities such as al-Bab, Azaz, Jarabulus, Rajo, Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn. The Syrian Democratic Forces control most of the northeast, including Hasakah governorate as well as areas of Deir Ezzor and Raqqa.

Russian mediation in Turkey-Syria negotiations

Russia, Assad’s staunch ally, has been pushing for normalization as part of its broader strategy to consolidate its influence in the Middle East. Despite broad agreement on the need to stabilize Syria, skepticism reigns on all sides. In 2019, Russia pledged to rid a 30-kilometer strip along the Turkish-Syrian border of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia that Turkey considers an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). While Ankara has been angered by Russia’s continued engagement with the YPG since then, it has continued to press Putin for concessions from Assad, frustrated that the United States has not abandoned its support for the YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces. Moscow is likely wondering whether NATO member Turkey might cave in to U.S. pressure to prevent Russian companies from evading Western sanctions through Turkey. Unconfirmed reports suggest that in anticipation of the negotiations, Turkey and Russia are considering restarting joint patrols on the M4 highway that runs from eastern Aleppo to western Latakia via Idlib and through areas controlled by the Syrian opposition. The patrols had been at a standstill for four years.