Mass deportations at the heart of Trump's campaign

WASHINGTON (AP) — “Mass Deportation Now!” proclaimed the signs at the Republican National Convention, fully embracing Donald Trump’s promise to expel millions of migrants in the largest deportation program in American history.

Some Republicans aren't quite ready for that.

Lauren B. Pea, a Texas Republican activist, said Trump’s calls for mass deportations, as well as terms like illegals and invasion used at the convention, made her uncomfortable. Like some Republicans in Congress who have advanced balanced approaches to immigration, she hopes Trump is just blustering.

He doesn't intend to deport every family crossing the border, he wants to deport criminals and sex offenders, Pea said.

But Trump and his advisers have other plans. He is putting immigration at the heart of his campaign to retake the White House and pushing the Republican Party toward a belligerent strategy reminiscent of the 1950s, when former President Dwight D. Eisenhower launched a deportation policy known as Operation Wetback, a racial slur.

Pressed for details of his plan in an interview with Time magazine this year, Trump suggested he would use the National Guard, and perhaps even the military, to target between 15 million and 20 million people, though the government has estimated that by 2022, 11 million migrants were living in the United States without permanent legal authorization.

His plans have raised the stakes of this year's election beyond strengthening the southern border, a long-standing conservative priority, to the question of whether America should make a fundamental shift in its approach to immigration.

After the southern border saw a historic number of crossings under the Biden administration, Democrats have also moved rightward on the issue, often starting with promises of border security before talking about helping immigrants already in the country.

And as the November election approaches, both parties are trying to reach voters like Pea, 33. Latino voters could play a crucial role in many key states.

Trump won 35% of the vote among Hispanic voters in 2020, according to AP VoteCast, and support for stricter border enforcement has increased among Hispanic voters. But an AP analysis of two consecutive polls conducted in June by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that about half of Hispanic Americans have a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of Trump.

Yet Pea, who describes herself as multiracial Hispanic, has become an enthusiastic new recruit to the Republican Party. She was drawn to Trump after seeing people impaired by drugs in the public housing complex where she lives in Austin. She believes government programs have failed low-income people and that the recent wave of immigration has undermined public assistance like food stamps.

But Pea said she also feels concerned when her Republican colleagues discuss ideas like excluding children who don't have permanent legal status from public school.

“Being Hispanic, it’s a tough subject,” she said. “I think we need to give these people a chance.”

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Still, Republican lawmakers have largely embraced Trump's plans. That's necessary, House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, said in a July interview with the Hudson Institute, a conservative organization.

Some, however, have expressed tacit skepticism by suggesting more modest goals.

Sen. James Lankford, a Republican from Oklahoma, pointed out that more than a million people have already received a final order of deportation from an immigration judge and said, “There's a difference between those who are in the process of doing this right now and those who are done with it.”

Lankford, who negotiated a bipartisan border deal that Trump helped derail earlier this year, added that it would be a daunting task, both logistically and financially, to simply target that group.

Other Republicans, including Florida Sens. Marco Rubio and Mario Diaz Balart, have suggested that Trump, in the White House, would prioritize migrants with criminal records.

Indeed, Trump came into office in 2016 with similar promises of mass deportations, but managed to expel only about 1.5 million people.

But this time, there is a plan.

Trump has worked closely with Stephen Miller, a former top adviser who is expected to take a top White House job if Trump wins the presidency. Miller describes a Trump administration that will work with absolute determination to achieve two goals: closing the border and deporting all illegal immigrants.

To do so, Trump would reinstate travel bans on countries deemed undesirable, such as Muslim-majority countries. He would launch a massive operation, sending in the National Guard to round up immigrants, lock them in massive camps, and put them on deportation flights before they can appeal.

Beyond that, Trump has also pledged to end birthright citizenship, a 125-year-old right in the United States. And several of his top advisers have outlined a radical policy vision through the Heritage Foundations Project 2025 that would stifle other forms of legal migration.

The Trump administration, under those plans, could also suspend temporary programs for more than a million migrants, including those under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, Ukrainians and Afghans who fled recent conflicts, and others who are receiving temporary protection because of unrest in their home countries.

These policies would have profound consequences for major industrial sectors such as housing and agriculture, including in key states.

If the more than 75,000 immigrants who do the hardest work in Wisconsin's dairy and agriculture industries disappeared tomorrow, the state's economy would collapse, said Jorge Franco, CEO of the Wisconsin Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

Maria Elvira Salazar, a Republican representative from Florida who pushed for legislation to provide a path to citizenship for longtime residents, argued that large-scale deportations are now necessary because of the recent surge in border crossings under President Joe Biden. But she also hopes Trump can see the difference between new arrivals and longtime residents.

There is a group of members of Congress who will make sure that the new administration understands this, because there is another side to consider: the business community, she said. The real estate developers and the farmers, what are they going to say? They need hands.

Meanwhile, Democrats believe Trump's threats are now motivating Latino voters.

The mass deportation has put many people on alert, said Mara Teresa Kumar, CEO of Voto Latino, a major voter registration organization that supports Democrat Kamala Harris.

Like many other groups close to Harris, Voto Latino has seen a surge in interest since she topped the Democratic ticket. Kumar said the organization registered nearly 36,000 voters in the weeks since Biden left the race, nearly the same number as it did in the first six months of the year.

In a heavily Latino House district in the southern tip of Texas, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez said voters want to see better border management, but at the same time, many also have friends or family members who don't have their immigration documents in order.

There is a lot that could be done, in terms of good policies, to help control the waves of migrants at the border, Gonzalez said. But mass expulsions only give people heartburn.

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