Pakistan’s Gen Z revolution will have to wait – The Diplomat

After Bangladesh, will Pakistan be the next country?

Did Pakistan’s monsoon revolution come amidst the country’s political, economic and security poly-crisis? These questions have been circulating on social media since former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India on August 5. They deserve to be closely examined.

Since the ouster of Prime Minister Imran Khan in April 2022, the gap between state and society in Pakistan has widened alarmingly, the economy has collapsed and governance has disappeared. The masses are discontented and struggling to make ends meet.

Currently, Pakistan, the second largest country in South Asia, has the highest inflation rate in the region, with 12.5 million people living below the poverty line and another 95 million in poverty. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey, around 4.5 million youth are unemployed; Pakistan’s unemployment rate of 11% is the highest in South Asia. As many as 1.6 million Pakistanis have left the country in the last two years to seek better employment opportunities and living standards in the Middle East and Europe.

In addition, the construction of border fences between Pakistan and Afghanistan and Iran to formalize informal border economies as well as the installation of an internet firewall will push more unemployed youth into the informal and self-employment sectors, respectively. In the restive provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, millennials like the Pashtun Tahaffuz Manzoor Pashteen movements and the Baloch Yakjehti Mahrang Baloch committees have captured the imagination of angry youth protesting state atrocities.

Is Pakistan ready for a Gen Z revolution? Not quite.

Despite some striking parallels with the situation in Bangladesh, Pakistan is unlikely to be the scene of a revolution for the following four reasons.

Some argue that Pakistan is a powder keg, and that a single flame would be enough to trigger nationwide protests like those in Bangladesh. But unlike Bangladesh, where a certain homogeneity transformed protests and anger against the Awami League (AL) government into a national movement, Pakistan’s ethnic heterogeneity and fragmentation of its political landscape make a national uprising more difficult.

The ongoing protests in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have failed to have a ripple effect in Punjab and Sindh, where the overwhelming majority of the population resides.

Living standards in Punjab and Sindh have deteriorated. As in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab has seen enforced disappearances of political activists of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) following the May 9 riots. However, instead of revolting, skilled workers and professionals in Punjab and Sindh are leaving the country for greener pastures in the West and the Middle East. There is thus no focal point or unifying figure that integrates the scattered protest movements into a broad national movement. The dispersed nature of the existing protest movements makes it easier for the Pakistani authorities to control the situation.

Second, unlike Bangladesh, where the Arab League ruled the country for 15 years and Hasina won four consecutive terms, Pakistan has been ruled by three different parties during the same period. In the last two decades, no party in Pakistan has won two consecutive elections. Furthermore, due to divided state mandates and hung parliaments, Pakistan has experienced coalition governments, unlike the Arab League’s one-party rule in Bangladesh. In fact, Khan’s ouster in a parliamentary no-confidence vote in April 2022 was initiated after the latter attempted to push Pakistan towards a so-called one-party rule with the help of former intelligence chief Lt. Gen. (retd.) Faiz Hameed.

If Pakistan ever came close to a revolution, it was on May 9, which the military crushed mercilessly. A repeat of May 9 is highly unlikely at this point.

Third, unlike Hasina who imprisoned the entire opposition and ruled Bangladesh with an iron fist, Pakistan’s major political parties are part of the current status quo. For example, the PTI is in power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PPP rules Sindh and Balochistan, while the PMLN is in control of the centre and Punjab. Thus, despite insurmountable political differences, unresolved electoral disputes and an endless game of thrones, Pakistan’s major political parties are invested in the system and seek to resolve their problems through legal and political means.

Finally, the most important variable that differentiates Pakistan from Bangladesh is its powerful military apparatus. Hasina’s regime collapsed like a house of cards when the Bangladeshi army withdrew its support and refused to open fire on the Gen Z protesters marching towards Dhaka. In contrast, the Pakistani military apparatus firmly supports the PMLN-led coalition government. In the words of former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Hussain Haqqanis, the current political system in Pakistan is a military regime with a civilian façade. The military’s stakes in the current status quo are thus deeply entrenched.

After securing staff-level agreement for a three-year, $7 billion Extended Credit Facility from the International Monetary Fund, the military is ready to do anything to prop up the existing system to ensure continuity of economic policies.

On August 12, the military announced a court martial against Faiz Hameed on charges of corruption and violation of the Pakistan Army Act, including his role in the May 9 riots. Three other former mid-ranking officers were also arrested for aiding Hameed. This is the second wave of purges within the Pakistani military. According to reports, after the May 9 events, the military dismissed three officers for failing to stop PTI protesters from ransacking military installations.

General Asim Munir, the Pakistani army chief, resisted the May 9 mutiny. It is unlikely that another institutional uprising will be organized against him. It is worth noting that the Pakistani army has never witnessed an internal coup, unlike several Latin American countries.

In summary, although the current economic, political and security situation in Pakistan is much worse than in Bangladesh, the Generation Z revolution in Pakistan will have to wait for some time.

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