RFK Jr. Just Endorsed Trump. Will That Have Any Impact in November?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s independent campaign is over, but the question that has followed him throughout the campaign remains: Does his support come primarily from those who would otherwise vote Republican or Democrat?

His electoral base was small and declining. According to opinion polls by the website RealClearPolitics, he would have received 5% of the vote, compared to 19% a few months ago.

But in a closely contested election, Kennedy voters could tip the scales in favor of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in November's election.

Mr Kennedy's drop in support is largely due to Democrats' enthusiasm for their new candidate, Vice President Harris, experts say.

When Biden was facing Trump, people were looking for a third option, said Merrill Matthews, a resident scholar at the conservative Institute for Policy Innovation who has studied the history of third-party campaigns.

But with the arrival of Kamala Harris and her accession to the Democratic nomination, things have changed.

Opinion polls that reflect independent and third-party candidates, including the Green Party's Jill Stein and left-wing activist Cornel West, have been inconclusive about where support for Mr. Kennedy comes from.

In some cases, they show that his presence in the race benefits Republicans, in others Democrats; and in almost all of these polls, the margins are slim.

But observers say a significant portion of liberal support for Mr. Kennedy may have already been shifted back to the Democratic Party by Ms. Harris's rise.

Mr. Matthews said RFK Jr.'s campaign suspension means Trump will get a bit of a boost.

But I'm not sure it was much, because Kennedy was plummeting in the polls, he said.

Still, a few votes in key states could be enough to swing an election that so far appears very close. Mr. Kennedy is well aware of this, since he announced Friday that he would remove his name from the ballot only in key states where he believes his presence could hurt Trump's campaign.

Despite being a member of the country's most famous Democratic family, Mr. Kennedy spent much of his graduation speech criticizing the party. He also spent much of his campaign clashing with the Democratic establishment.

At a fundraiser this spring in suburban Detroit, a key battleground in the swing state of Michigan, protesters from the local Democratic Party gathered outside, holding signs calling him a troublemaker.

His decision to support Trump will confirm these allegations in the minds of Kennedy's critics.

“I think there are some of his voters who will vote for Trump, and there are others who will not be happy with either candidate and simply will not vote,” said Melissa Smith, author of Third Parties, Outsiders, and Renegades: Modern Challenges to the Two-Party System in Presidential Elections.

But Mr. Kennedy's financially troubled campaign could have had more impact on the race if he had stayed or withdrawn at the last minute.

With more than two months to go until Election Day, Smith predicted her candidacy would be a historic event, one that could quickly become old news in a race that has already thrown up plenty of surprises.

For now, however, Trump appears better positioned to recapture much of Mr. Kennedy's remaining support.

The Trump campaign released a memo from its pollster Tony Fabrizio, saying Republicans have everything to gain.

This is good news for President Trump and his campaign, plain and simple, he wrote.

But his support also poses some risk for Trump, as Democrats seek to define the Republican ticket as odd, that is, outside the mainstream of American politics.

Mr. Kennedy, with his fringe anti-vaccine views, may well end up providing more fodder for such attacks.

On the sidelines of this week's Democratic National Convention, a tongue-in-cheek newspaper claiming to have been funded by his campaign ran the headline “Kennedy is Weird.”

Filled with anti-vaccine messages and references to conspiracy theories, its underlying message was that weird is a good thing.

Harris' campaign, meanwhile, did not directly reference RFK Jr. in a statement responding to Friday's news.

“For any American who is tired of Donald Trump searching for a new path forward, our campaign is for you,” Harris campaign chairwoman Jen O’Malley Dillon said.

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