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Harris, Trump to debate in campaign litmus test

Harris, Trump to debate in campaign litmus test
Harris, Trump to debate in campaign litmus test

 


Why Muted Mics Won't Help Trump or Harris in the Debate

Presidential debates are a big deal in American politics. And Tuesday night’s debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, their only currently scheduled matchup, may be bigger than most.

Joe Biden's poor performance in the first presidential debate in late June created a storm of pressure within the Democratic Party that ultimately forced him to abandon his re-election campaign.

Although Kamala Harris has been vice president for more than three years and a presidential candidate for seven weeks, she remains relatively unknown to many Americans. In a recent New York Times poll, 28 percent of likely November voters said they would like to know more about the California native.

That poll showed the race to be statistically tied, a result that most recent polls have also indicated, both nationally and in key states. The 2024 presidential campaign has been full of historic tumult, but the American electorate remains deeply and narrowly divided.

This underscores the importance of the Tuesday night debate, where even small shifts in the mood of the electorate could mean the difference between victory and defeat for the candidates.

For Harris, the Philadelphia showdown offers her an opportunity to hammer out the details in front of an audience of tens of millions, even if she will have to do so under rhetorical fire from her Republican opponent.

The opportunity is not without risks, however, because Harris could define herself and her positions in ways that would hurt her electoral chances. She has struggled in the past to answer pointed questions under pressure, and her reluctance to give media interviews in the early weeks of her campaign prevented her from honing her language skills.

Although she has tried to present herself as the candidate of change in this election, moderators and the former president will likely push her to defend the Biden administration's record, particularly on areas where polls show Democrats are weak, such as border security and inflation.

She will also have to explain why she has backed away from some of the more liberal policies she adopted during her unsuccessful bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. She has recently reversed her positions on banning fracking, decriminalizing border crossings and nationalizing health insurance, among others.

She explained that the changes were intended to reflect new circumstances, but they could be seen by some voters as measures born of political expediency.

What Voters Would Ask Trump and Harris in the Debate

For Trump, this debate is an opportunity to regain the initiative in this campaign after a month in which the Democrats, with their new nominee and their frenzied convention, have dominated the political news. He is used to putting himself in the spotlight and setting the terms of the political debate that destabilizes his opponents. His positions, particularly on immigration and trade, enjoy broad popular support and are at the forefront of the political debate.

The former president, however, may face challenges on Tuesday. His uneven performance in his June debate with Mr. Biden didn’t garner much attention because of his opponents’ sometimes catastrophic verbal errors. Ms. Harris will likely present a more agile opponent, and her responses will need to be sharper.

At an economic forum in New York last week, he was unable to provide a clear explanation of his child care policy. Such verbal ramblings during the debate will provide Democrats with plenty of material for their campaign.

Trump will also have to tread carefully when addressing the vice president, the second woman to run for president and the first of color. If he comes across as domineering or belittling, he could further damage his already weak support among women voters.

The two candidates used very different methods to prepare for Tuesday night’s event. The vice president and former prosecutor traveled to Pittsburgh, a few hours’ drive east of Philadelphia, to hold mock debates and review her policy proposals. The trip also gave her a chance to campaign and garner local media coverage in the largest and most crucial state of Pennsylvania.

Trump, who has participated in presidential debates in each of the last three elections, has held more informal sessions, including to review his positions on key issues. Last week, he participated in a forum hosted by the conservative cable network Fox News.

Tuesday promises to be a day of contrasts in terms of styles and political opinions.

Although Election Day won't arrive until November, early voting is expected to begin this month in some key states, including Pennsylvania.

While the debate could help define the political environment in the final two months of the 2024 presidential race, it will also be the last chance for both candidates to reach some voters in states where every vote counts.

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher covers the race for the White House in his weekly newsletter US Election Unspun. UK readers can sign up here. Non-UK readers can sign up here.

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