Politics
How to deter Iran from exporting ballistic missiles
September 8, Shay Khatiri of Yorktown Institutes note Despite Iranian diplomatic denials, Iran has indeed delivered ballistic missiles to Russia, presumably for use against Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin likely hopes that Iranian missiles can give Russia the qualitative military advantage that its fighter jets, drones, and its own missiles have not provided. By raining terror on kyiv, Putin also hopes that Russia can decapitate Ukrainian leaders with a precision that Russian forces have so far lacked. After all, with Ukraine and Russia fighting to a stalemate, at least in the Donbass, the death of Putin or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could create a breakthrough that could lead either country to end its fight.
Iranian leaders, for their part, believe they have the right to export missiles abroad and they do so. great pride The outside world comes to them to provide them with technology. After years of sanctions, the Iranian government also welcomes foreign capital that it can use to import food and subsidize the militias mandated by the resistance axis.
Authorizing the sale of ballistic missiles to Iran risks triggering a cascade of conflict and instability around the world. By shipping ballistic missiles to Russia, Iran’s leaders are showing that they are willing and able to destabilize regions far beyond the Middle East. On board the Iranian ships currently docked in Venezuela, for example, it is conceivable that Iran could sell ballistic missiles that the Maduro regime could use against neighboring Guyana or to threaten U.S. forces and interests in the Caribbean. In short, Iran’s proliferation for profit could turn it into a new Pakistan or North Korea.
How, then, should President Joe Biden or his successor deter Iran from selling ballistic missiles? It might make sense to declare that the United States or its allies would retaliate against Iranian military bases if Iranian ballistic missiles were used, regardless of who ordered the launch. Indeed, Tehran could sell its weapons, but Washington would declare that it would hold Tehran responsible for their use, rather than its customers. If the Russian military, for example, launched missiles at the Ukrainian port of Odessa, the United States or the United Kingdom could respond by eliminating the port facilities in Bandar Abbas. Alternatively, if the Russian military launched its missiles at Zelensky’s Mariinsky Palace, the official residence of President Vladimir Putin, Western allies would then strike the official residences of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The White House may think it is sophisticated to pass resolutions at the United Nations or condemn Iranian missile sales, but rhetoric alone has never succeeded in containing Iran. Successive US administrations have targeted the leaders of the cartels, rather than just the drug traffickers who distribute their products. Likewise, it is necessary to target those who build and supply the missiles, rather than just those who might launch them for local interests.
Establishing deterrence is not easy, but it is necessary. Iran’s leaders must understand that they will be held personally responsible for any weapons they sell to proxies, thugs, and belligerents.
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